UL Monroe vs Mississippi State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 1

• Mississippi State Bulldogs is a -28.5 point favorite vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
• UL Monroe vs. Mississippi State Total (Over/Under): 54.5 points
• TV Channel: ESPNU

UL Monroe (0-0) visit Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field to take on Mississippi State (0-0) on Sep. 5 in Starkville, MS. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 pm.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are betting favorites in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -28.5 (-108).

The UL Monroe vs. Mississippi State Over/Under is 54.5 total points.

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UL Monroe vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

UL Monroe vs Mississippi State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Mississippi will win this game with 93.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks and Mississippi State Bulldogs, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

UL Monroe vs Mississippi State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UL Monroe will cover the spread with 54.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks and all games with BetMGM

UL Monroe Best Bets Today

• UL Monroe has hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.85 Units / 40% ROI)
• UL Monroe has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.35 Units / 35% ROI)
• UL Monroe have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.15 Units / 64% ROI)
• UL Monroe have covered the 1H Spread in their last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
• UL Monroe has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.80 Units / 37% ROI)

Mississippi State Best Bets Today

• Mississippi State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+6.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• Mississippi State has hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 38% ROI)
• Mississippi State has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
• Mississippi State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in their last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)
• Mississippi State have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.85 Units / 18% ROI)

UL Monroe: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi State

Louisiana-Monroe was winless (0-5) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .477

Louisiana-Monroe was winless (0-5) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .536

Louisiana-Monroe was winless (0-7) when allowing 22 or more points last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .259

Louisiana-Monroe was winless (0-7) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .533

Mississippi State: Keys to the Game vs. UL Monroe

Mississippi State was winless (0-5) when in a one score game last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514

Mississippi State was winless (0-8) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .498

Mississippi State was 1-6 (.143) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .581

Mississippi State was winless (0-6) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .443

Matchup Notes for UL Monroe vs. Mississippi State

Mississippi State’s WRs gained 2,413 yards on 163 receptions (14.8 YPR) last season — T-19th-best among FBS WRs. Louisiana-Monroe’s defense allowed 13.9 Yards Per Reception to WRs last season — T-22nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Mississippi State’s WRs gained 2,413 yards on 163 receptions (14.8 YPR) last season — T-3rd-best among SEC WRs. Louisiana-Monroe’s defense allowed 13.9 Yards Per Reception to WRs last season — T-22nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Mississippi State’s TEs had 0.5 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-3rd-best among SEC TEs. Louisiana-Monroe’s defense allowed 1.8 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.

Louisiana-Monroe’s RBs averaged just 5.9 yards after the catch last season — T-21st-worst among FBS RBs. Mississippi State’s defense allowed 12.1 RAC last season — 4th-worst among SEC defenses.

Louisiana-Monroe’s RBs averaged just 5.9 yards after the catch last season — T-21st-worst among FBS RBs. Mississippi State’s defense allowed 12.1 RAC last season — 33rd-worst among FBS defenses.

Louisiana-Monroe has 304 receptions in 24 games (just 12.7 per game) since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among FBS skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed 19.2 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 4th-worst among SEC defenses.

UL Monroe Offensive Stats & Trends

Louisiana-Monroe WRs averaged 22.6 yards per reception (430 yards/19 catches) in the 4th quarter last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.2

Louisiana-Monroe Skill Players averaged 19.4 yards per reception (485 yards/25 catches) in the 4th quarter last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.0

Louisiana-Monroe’s RBs averaged just 5.9 yards after the catch last season — T-21st-worst among FBS RBs. Mississippi State’s defense allowed 12.1 RAC last season — 4th-worst among SEC defenses.

Louisiana-Monroe WRs averaged 21.7 yards per reception (260 yards/12 catches) with over 10 yards to go last season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 14.0

Louisiana-Monroe’s RBs averaged just 5.9 yards after the catch last season — T-21st-worst among FBS RBs. Mississippi State’s defense allowed 12.1 RAC last season — 33rd-worst among FBS defenses.

Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends

Mississippi State gained 40+ yards on 20 of their 243 receptions (8%) last season– 4th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 4%

Mississippi State WRs averaged a touchdown every 5.0 receptions (10 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 2.1

Mississippi State’s WRs gained 2,413 yards on 163 receptions (14.8 YPR) last season — T-19th-best among FBS WRs. Louisiana-Monroe’s defense allowed 13.9 Yards Per Reception to WRs last season — T-22nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Mississippi State’s WRs gained 2,413 yards on 163 receptions (14.8 YPR) last season — T-3rd-best among SEC WRs. Louisiana-Monroe’s defense allowed 13.9 Yards Per Reception to WRs last season — T-22nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Mississippi State WRs averaged 18.9 yards per reception (717 yards/38 catches) in the 4th quarter last season– 2nd-best among SEC Teams; Average: 13.3

UL Monroe Defensive Stats & Trends

Louisiana-Monroe allowed a Completion Pct of 64% (21 completions/33 attempts) in the Red Zone last season– 19th-worst in FBS; Average: 54%

Louisiana-Monroe sacked opposing QBs just once on 57 pass attempts in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– 13th-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1

Louisiana-Monroe tackled opponents for a loss on 5 of 35 rushing attempts (14% TFL%) on 3rd and short last season– T-28th-best in FBS; Average: 10%.

Louisiana-Monroe allowed first downs on 29% of rush attempts last season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 24%

Louisiana-Monroe tackled opponents for a loss on just 60 of 455 rushing attempts (13% TFL%) last season– T-31st-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

Mississippi State Defensive Stats & Trends

Mississippi State sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (10/341) last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 8%

Mississippi State allowed 456.4 yards from scrimmage per game last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 341.3

Mississippi State did not record a sack (42 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0

Mississippi State tackled opponents for a loss on just 52 of 523 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 17%.

Mississippi State allowed 33 TDs in the Red Zone last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 1.6

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