UNLV vs Hawaii Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 1

• UNLV Rebels is a -3 point favorite vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
• UNLV vs. Hawaii Total (Over/Under): 55.5 points
• TV Channel: CW

UNLV (0-1) visit Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex to take on Hawaii (0-1) on Sep. 5 in Honolulu, HI. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:00 pm.

The UNLV Rebels are betting favorites in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).

The UNLV vs. Hawaii Over/Under is 55.5 total points.

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UNLV vs. Hawaii Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

UNLV vs Hawaii Prediction:

The winning team model predicts UNLV will win this game with 56.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both UNLV Rebels and Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

UNLV vs Hawaii Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UNLV will cover the spread with 55.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs UNLV Rebels and all games with BetMGM

UNLV: Keys to the Game vs. Hawaii

UNLV was 10-2 (.833) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .612

UNLV was 11-2 (.846) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .584

UNLV was 9-1 (.900) when allowing less than 3 sacks last season– T-2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .583

UNLV was 8-1 (.889) when they have committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .470

Hawaii: Keys to the Game vs. UNLV

Hawai’i was 2-7 (.222) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-15th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .400

Hawai’i was 1-5 (.167) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– 10th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .462

Hawai’i was 2-6 (.250) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-23rd-worst in FBS; Average: .460

Hawai’i was 1-3 (.250) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-20th-worst in FBS; Average: .536

Matchup Notes for UNLV vs. Hawaii

Hawai’i’s offense threw for 3,778 passing yards in 13 games (290.6 YPG) last season — 8th-best among FBS offenses. UNLV’s defense allowed 241.7 passing yards per game last season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.

Hawai’i’s QBs threw for 3,744 passing yards in 13 games (288.0 YPG) last season — 9th-best among FBS teams. Stanford’s defense allowed 288.9 passing yards per game last season — worst among P5 defenses.

Hawai’i’s QBs threw for 3,744 passing yards in 13 games (288.0 YPG) last season — 9th-best among FBS teams. UNLV’s defense allowed 241.7 passing yards per game last season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.

UNLV’s WRs gained 2,723 yards on 190 receptions (14.3 YPR) last season — T-30th-best among FBS WRs. Memphis’s defense allowed 12.4 Yards Per Reception last season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.

UNLV’s WRs gained 2,723 yards on 190 receptions (14.3 YPR) last season — T-30th-best among FBS WRs. Hawai’i’s defense allowed 14.6 Yards Per Reception to WRs last season — T-10th-worst among FBS defenses.

UNLV’s WRs gained 2,723 yards on 190 receptions (14.3 YPR) last season — T-30th-best among FBS WRs. Hawai’i’s defense allowed 12.6 Yards Per Reception last season — T-23rd-worst among FBS defenses.

UNLV Offensive Stats & Trends

UNLV’s WRs gained 2,723 yards on 190 receptions (14.3 YPR) last season — T-30th-best among FBS WRs. Memphis’s defense allowed 12.4 Yards Per Reception last season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.

UNLV QBs fumbled 4 times in the Red Zone last season– T-most among FBS Teams

UNLV’s WRs gained 2,723 yards on 190 receptions (14.3 YPR) last season — T-30th-best among FBS WRs. Hawai’i’s defense allowed 14.6 Yards Per Reception to WRs last season — T-10th-worst among FBS defenses.

UNLV’s WRs gained 2,723 yards on 190 receptions (14.3 YPR) last season — T-30th-best among FBS WRs. Hawai’i’s defense allowed 12.6 Yards Per Reception last season — T-23rd-worst among FBS defenses.

UNLV WRs averaged a touchdown every 5.0 receptions (10 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 1.9

Hawaii Offensive Stats & Trends

Hawai’i WRs were targeted 130 times on 3rd down last season– most among FBS Teams

Hawai’i WRs averaged 20.4 receptions per game (245/12) last season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.3

Hawai’i’s offense threw for 3,778 passing yards in 13 games (290.6 YPG) last season — 8th-best among FBS offenses. UNLV’s defense allowed 241.7 passing yards per game last season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.

Hawai’i TEs had no touchdowns on 1 receptions last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 9.6

Hawai’i WRs averaged 10.6 receptions per game (138/13) in the 2nd half last season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.7

UNLV Defensive Stats & Trends

UNLV allowed 53.1 receiving yards per game (743/14) to RBs last season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 25.1

UNLV allowed passes of 40+ yards on 21 of 398 attempts (5%) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3%

UNLV allowed passes of 20+ yards on 67 of 398 attempts (17%) in the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 10%

UNLV has not allowed a rushing touchdown in any of their last 24 drives — the SMU Mustangs have the longest active streak at 97.

UNLV tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 37 rushing attempts (19% TFL%) on 3rd and short last season– 14th-best in FBS; Average: 11%.

Hawaii Defensive Stats & Trends

Hawai’i tackled opponents for a loss on just 4 of 69 rushing attempts (6% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– T-3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 14%.

Hawai’i had no interceptions (0 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 30.3

Hawai’i allowed 8.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (288 yards / 33 touches) on 3rd and short last season– 5th-worst in FBS; Average: 5.0

Hawai’i tackled opponents for a loss on just 4 of 69 rushing attempts (6% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– T-2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.

Hawai’i allowed 115.9 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs last season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 149.5

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