USC vs UCLA Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 24, 2022, 9:33 AM

USC (9-1) are -1.5 point favorites vs UCLA (8-2)
Total (Over/Under): 75.5 points

The USC Trojans (10-1) visit Rose Bowl to take on the UCLA Bruins (8-3) on Nov. 19. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Pasadena.

– are betting favorites in Week 12, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for USC vs. UCLA is total points.

Bet now on UCLA vs USC & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

USC vs. UCLA Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 12

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
USC
UCLA

USC vs UCLA Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts USC will win this game with 53.3% confidence.

USC vs UCLA Spread Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UCLA will cover the spread with 61.6% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both USC and UCLA, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.

Best USC Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for USC players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Caleb Williams has hit the TD Passes Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+6.30 Units / 52% ROI)

Travis Dye has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+4.80 Units / 28% ROI)

Tahj Washington has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 82% ROI)

Caleb Williams has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+3.10 Units / 21% ROI)

Caleb Williams has hit the Passing Yards Over in 4 of his last 5 away games (+2.80 Units / 50% ROI)

Mario Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.40 Units / 19% ROI)

Best UCLA Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for UCLA players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Zach Charbonnet has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.80 Units / 67% ROI)

Dorian Thompson-Robinson has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 81% ROI)

Dorian Thompson-Robinson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+3.20 Units / 22% ROI)

Jake Bobo has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 81% ROI)

Zach Charbonnet has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+2.95 Units / 51% ROI)

Dorian Thompson-Robinson has hit the TD Passes Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.35 Units / 38% ROI)

USC Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

USC has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.15 Units / 32% ROI)

USC has hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.50 Units / 38% ROI)

USC has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.20 Units / 16% ROI)

USC has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 13% ROI)

USC has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.85 Units / 44% ROI)

UCLA Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

UCLA has hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)

UCLA has hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 50% ROI)

UCLA has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.50 Units / 35% ROI)

UCLA have covered the Spread in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.25 Units / 22% ROI)

UCLA have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.95 Units / 61% ROI)

USC Against the Spread (ATS) Record

USC has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

USC is 5-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 12.86% ROI
USC is 7-2 when betting the Over for +4.8 Units / 48.48% ROI
USC is 2-7 when betting the Under for -5.7 Units / -57.58% ROI

UCLA Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UCLA has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

UCLA is 7-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.85 Units / -7.02% ROI
UCLA is 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI
UCLA is 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI

USC: Keys to the Game vs. UCLA

#12 USC is 3-7 (.300) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties — tied for 14th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .519

#6 USC is 7-2 (.778) when in a one score game since the 2020 season– tied for 5th-best in FBS; Average: .493

#6 USC is 5-1 (.833) when committing less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2020 season– 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .431

#6 USC is 7-3 (.583) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2020 season– 9th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .411

UCLA: Keys to the Game vs. USC

#9 UCLA is 11-4 (.579) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — tied for 14th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .436

#9 UCLA is 8-4 (.667) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times — tied for 7th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .416

#9 UCLA is 9-1 (.900) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes — 11th-best in FBS; Average: .561

#9 UCLA is 8-4 (.667) when sacking the QB less than 3 times — tied for 12th-best in FBS; Average: .379

Matchup Notes for USC vs. UCLA

UCLA’s RBs have 53.4 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — fifth-best among FBS RBs. USC’s defense has allowed 250.6 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — third-worst among Pac-12 defenses.

UCLA’s RBs have 57.0 receiving yards per game this season — fourth-best among FBS RBs. USC’s defense has allowed 262.2 receiving yards per game this season — third-worst among Pac-12 defenses.

UCLA’s QBs has 8 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for fifth-most among FBS teams. USC’s defense has allowed 16 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — fourth-most among Pac-12 defenses.

USC’s QBs has thrown for 3,119 passing yards in 9 games (346.6 YPG) this season — fourth-best among FBS teams. UCLA’s defense has allowed 269.9 passing yards per game this season — fourth-worst among Pac-12 defenses.

USC has gained 2,989 yards on 214 receptions (14.0 YPR) this season — fifth-best among Power 5 skill players. UCLA’s defense has allowed just 10.6 Yards Per Reception this season — best among Pac-12 defenses.

USC have 312.0 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — fifth-best among FBS skill players. UCLA’s defense has allowed 257.5 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — worst among Pac-12 defenses.

USC Offensive Stats & Trends

#7 USC QBs have 11 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

#7 USC WRs have 46 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– most among Power 5 Teams

#7 USC QBs have 13 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down this season– 3rd most among FBS Teams

UCLA Offensive Stats & Trends

#16 UCLA Punters have placed 0% of punts inside the 20 (0/1) since last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 33%

#16 UCLA QBs have rushed for 4 TDs in the 1st quarter this season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams

#16 UCLA RBs have averaged 13.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (248 yards / 18 touches) on 3rd and long since last season– 4th best among FBS Teams; Average: 7.3

#16 UCLA RBs have averaged 7.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (1,991 yards / 274 touches) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3

#16 UCLA Punters have punted 1.0 times per game since last season– lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 4.3

USC Trojans Defensive Stats & Trends

#7 USC has allowed 24 first down receptions in the Red Zone since last season– tied for 5th most among Power 5 Teams

#7 USC has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 35 of 144 carries (24%) on 1st down this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 13%

#7 USC’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 15% of PATs this season– 4th highest among Power 5 Teams; Average: 6%

#7 USC has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 35 of 144 carries (24%) on 1st down this season– worst in FBS; Average: 13%

#7 USC has averaged 3.6 sacks per game this season– tied for 2nd best in FBS; Average: 2.2

UCLA Bruins Defensive Stats & Trends

#16 UCLA’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 18% of PATs this season– 2nd highest among Power 5 Teams; Average: 6%

#16 UCLA has allowed 25 first down receptions in the Red Zone since last season– tied for 3rd most among Power 5 Teams

#16 UCLA has allowed 45.4 receiving yards per game (953/21) to RBs since last season– 4th worst in FBS; Average: 26.4

#16 UCLA has allowed a Completion Pct of 67% (215 completions/321 attempts) this season– 3rd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 60%

#16 UCLA has allowed a Completion Pct of 65% (28 completions/43 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 4th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 54%

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