USC vs UCLA Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 13

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UCLA running back TJ Harden (25) runs during an NCAA college football game against Stanford, Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023, in Stanford, Calif. (AP Photo/Scot Tucker)
(AP Photo/Scot Tucker)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 22, 2024, 1:15 PM
  • USC is a -4.5 point favorite vs. UCLA
  • USC vs. UCLA Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
  • TV Channel: NBC

The USC Trojans (5-5) visit Rose Bowl to take on the UCLA Bruins (4-6) on Nov. 23 in Pasadena, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30pm EST.

USC is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).

The USC vs. UCLA Over/Under is 51.5 total points.

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USC vs. UCLA Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
USC-4.5 -11051.5 -110-190
UCLA +4.5 -11051.5 -110+155

USC vs UCLA Prediction:

The winning team model predicts USC will win this game with 62.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both USC and UCLA, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

USC vs UCLA Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UCLA will cover the spread with 64.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • USC has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+4.00 Units / 71% ROI)
  • USC has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.35 Units / 32% ROI)
  • USC have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
  • USC has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.75 Units / 21% ROI)
  • USC have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.70 Units / 15% ROI)
  • UCLA has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • UCLA has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
  • UCLA have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.55 Units / 12% ROI)
  • UCLA has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.70 Units / 11% ROI)
  • UCLA have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.25 Units / 2% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for USC players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best USC Player Prop Bets Today

  • Makai Lemon has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Ja’Kobi Lane has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Zachariah Branch has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Kyron Hudson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Miller Moss has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 61% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for UCLA players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best UCLA Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Logan Loya has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Moliki Matavao has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Kwazi Gilmer has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Ethan Garbers has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 65% ROI)

USC Against the Spread (ATS) Record

USC is 6-4 against the spread this college football season (+1.6 Units / 14.48% ROI).

  • USC is 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.25 Units / -3.39% ROI
  • USC is 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • USC is 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI

UCLA Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UCLA is 6-4 against the spread this college football season (+1.65 Units / 15.07% ROI).

  • UCLA is 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.2 Units / 8.14% ROI
  • UCLA is 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.53% ROI
  • UCLA is 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.65 Units / 15.07% ROI

USC: Keys to the Game vs. UCLA

USC is 4-8 (.308) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-17th-worst in FBS; Average: .505

USC is 4-8 (.308) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-8th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .527

USC is 11-4 (.733) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– T-37th-best in FBS; Average: .641

USC was 2-5 (.250) when not forcing a fumble in the 2023 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .513

UCLA: Keys to the Game vs. USC

UCLA is 10-1 (.909) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-21st-best in FBS; Average: .752

UCLA is 2-6 (.250) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-34th-worst in FBS; Average: .383

UCLA is 2-6 (.250) when not forcing a fumble this season– T-8th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .508

UCLA is 4-10 (.286) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .454

Matchup Notes for USC vs. UCLA

UCLA’s TEs has 53 receptions in 10 games (5.3 per game) this season — 4th-best among Big Ten TEs. USC’s defense has allowed 23.1 receptions per game this season — 4th-worst among P5 defenses.

UCLA’s TEs has 53 receptions in 10 games (5.3 per game) this season — 4th-best among Big Ten TEs. USC’s defense has allowed 23.1 receptions per game this season — worst among Big Ten defenses.

UCLA’s TEs has 53 receptions in 10 games (5.3 per game) this season — 4th-best among Big Ten TEs. USC’s defense has allowed 4.9 receptions per game to TEs this season — 3rd-worst among FBS defenses.

USC’s QBs has thrown for 2,880 passing yards in 10 games (288.0 YPG) this season — 12th-best among FBS teams. UCLA’s defense has allowed 245.7 passing yards per game this season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.

USC’s offense has thrown for 2,880 passing yards in 10 games (288.0 YPG) this season — 13th-best among FBS offenses. UCLA’s defense has allowed 245.7 passing yards per game this season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.

USC have 288.0 receiving yards per game this season — 12th-best among FBS skill players. UCLA’s defense has allowed 245.7 receiving yards per game this season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.

USC Offensive Stats & Trends

USC TEs have averaged just 2.5 yards per reception (5 yards/2 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.1

USC TEs have no touchdowns on 29 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.3

USC TEs have averaged just 2.5 yards per reception (5 yards/2 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.5

USC TEs have no touchdowns on 29 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 9.7

USC’s QBs has thrown for 2,880 passing yards in 10 games (288.0 YPG) this season — 12th-best among FBS teams. UCLA’s defense has allowed 245.7 passing yards per game this season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.

UCLA Offensive Stats & Trends

UCLA’s TEs has 53 receptions in 10 games (5.3 per game) this season — 4th-best among Big Ten TEs. USC’s defense has allowed 23.1 receptions per game this season — 4th-worst among P5 defenses.

UCLA’s TEs has 53 receptions in 10 games (5.3 per game) this season — 4th-best among Big Ten TEs. USC’s defense has allowed 23.1 receptions per game this season — worst among Big Ten defenses.

UCLA’s TEs has 53 receptions in 10 games (5.3 per game) this season — 4th-best among Big Ten TEs. USC’s defense has allowed 4.9 receptions per game to TEs this season — 3rd-worst among FBS defenses.

UCLA’s TEs has 53 receptions in 10 games (5.3 per game) this season — 4th-best among Big Ten TEs. USC’s defense has allowed 23.1 receptions per game this season — 4th-worst among FBS defenses.

UCLA RBs have rushed for 2 TDs on 34 carries (17 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4

USC Trojans Defensive Stats & Trends

USC has allowed a Completion Pct of 66% (498 completions/757 attempts) since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 60%

USC has allowed a Completion Pct of 87% (20 completions/23 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 60%

USC has allowed a Completion Pct of 68% (65 completions/96 attempts) in close and late situations since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 59%

USC allowed 12 TDs in close and late situations in the 2023 season– most in the Big Ten

USC has allowed a Completion Pct of 87% (20 completions/23 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%

UCLA Bruins Defensive Stats & Trends

UCLA has allowed 9.2 Yards per Attempt (942 yards/102 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 6.2

UCLA has tackled opponents for a loss on 32 of 128 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 15%.

UCLA allowed 5 rushing TDs on 396 carries (79.2 Carries Per TD) in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 25.6

UCLA has tackled opponents for a loss on 32 of 128 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

UCLA allowed 4 rushing TDs on 54 carries (13.5 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.