Utah vs Central Florida Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 14

Central Florida head coach Gus Malzahn works from the sideline during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Houston, Saturday, Nov. 25, 2023, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)
(AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)
  • Central Florida is a -9.5 point favorite vs. Utah
  • Utah vs. UCF Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
  • TV Channel: FOX

The Utah Utes (4-7) visit FBC Mortgage Stadium to take on the UCF Knights (4-7) on Nov. 29 in Orlando, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST.

Central Florida is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).

The Utah vs. UCF Over/Under is 47.5 total points.

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Utah vs. UCF Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Utah+9.5 -11047.5 -110+280
UCF -9.5 -11047.5 -110-350

Utah vs UCF Prediction:

The winning team model predicts UCF will win this game with 72.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Utah and Central Florida, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Utah vs UCF Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UCF will cover the spread with 65.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Utah has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Utah has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.35 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Utah has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
  • UCF has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+3.70 Units / 32% ROI)
  • UCF has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.45 Units / 11% ROI)
  • UCF has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.75 Units / 10% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Utah players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Utah Player Prop Bets Today

  • Brant Kuithe has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Money Parks has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Micah Bernard has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Cameron Rising has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Isaac Wilson has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 57% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for UCF players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best UCF Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • RJ Harvey has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • RJ Harvey has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Randy Pittman Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Trent Whittemore has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Kobe Hudson has hit the Receptions Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)

Utah Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Utah is 4-7 against the spread this college football season (-3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI).

  • Utah is 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.85 Units / -23.95% ROI
  • Utah is 4-7 when betting the Over for -3.75 Units / -30.86% ROI
  • Utah is 7-4 when betting the Under for +2.6 Units / 21.58% ROI

UCF Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Central Florida is 5-6 against the spread this college football season (-1.45 Units / -12.08% ROI).

  • UCF is 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.55 Units / -29.48% ROI
  • UCF is 7-4 when betting the Over for +2.55 Units / 20.99% ROI
  • UCF is 4-7 when betting the Under for -3.7 Units / -30.71% ROI

Utah: Keys to the Game vs. UCF

Utah is 6-11 (.353) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– T-10th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .527

Utah is 3-6 (.333) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .532

Utah is 10-4 (.714) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-35th-best in FBS; Average: .604

Utah is 4-9 (.308) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 14th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .485

UCF: Keys to the Game vs. Utah

UCF is winless (0-5) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .474

UCF is 2-12 (.143) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .466

UCF is winless (0-1) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .406

UCF is winless (0-5) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .428

Matchup Notes for Utah vs. UCF

UCF has 390 receptions in 24 games (just 16.2 per game) since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among Big 12 skill players. Utah’s defense has allowed just 17.7 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among Big 12 defenses.

UCF’s WRs has gained 1,405 yards on 97 receptions (14.5 YPR) this season — 4th-best among Big 12 WRs. Utah’s defense has allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.

UCF’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.8% of 269 attempts this season — T-15th-best among FBS offenses. Utah’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.1% of attempts this season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Utah’s TEs has gained 721 yards on 52 receptions (13.9 YPR) this season — best among Big 12 TEs. UCF’s defense has allowed just 7.2 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-best among FBS defenses.

Utah has 364 receptions in 24 games (just 15.2 per game) since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst among Big 12 skill players. UCF’s defense has allowed just 18.4 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Utah’s WRs has averaged just 11.8 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among Big 12 WRs. UCF’s defense has allowed just 11.4 RAC since the 2023 season — 4th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Utah Offensive Stats & Trends

Utah TEs have caught 5 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter this season– most among Big 12 Teams

Utah WRs have averaged a touchdown every 23.8 receptions (95 Rec/4 TDs) this season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.9

Utah WRs have averaged a touchdown every 20.0 receptions (220 Rec/11 TDs) since the 2023 season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big 12 Teams; Average: 11.4

Utah TEs have 10 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– most among Big 12 Teams

Utah’s TEs has gained 721 yards on 52 receptions (13.9 YPR) this season — best among Big 12 TEs. UCF’s defense has allowed just 7.2 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-best among FBS defenses.

UCF Offensive Stats & Trends

UCF has 390 receptions in 24 games (just 16.2 per game) since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among Big 12 skill players. Utah’s defense has allowed just 17.7 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among Big 12 defenses.

UCF’s WRs has gained 1,405 yards on 97 receptions (14.5 YPR) this season — 4th-best among Big 12 WRs. Utah’s defense has allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.

UCF’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.8% of 269 attempts this season — T-15th-best among FBS offenses. Utah’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.1% of attempts this season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

UCF’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.8% of 269 attempts this season — T-15th-best among FBS offenses. Utah’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.1% of attempts this season — 23rd-worst among FBS defenses.

UCF WRs have no touchdowns on 21 receptions in close and late situations since the 2023 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.8

Utah Utes Defensive Stats & Trends

Utah has allowed first downs on 18% of rush attempts since the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 23%

Utah has allowed 102.3 rushing yards per game (2,456/24) since the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 151.8

Utah has not recorded a sack (32 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 14.9

Utah has tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 35 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 11%.

Utah has allowed opponents to catch just 179 of 334 passes (54% Reception Pct) this season– best in the Big 12; Average: 61%

UCF Knights Defensive Stats & Trends

UCF has not recorded a sack (38 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 14.9

UCF has allowed 11.0 Yards per Attempt (484 yards/44 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 7.2

UCF sacked opposing QBs on 14% of pass attempts (3/21) last week– best in the Big 12; Average: 5%

UCF has tackled opponents for a loss on 9 of 47 rushing attempts (19% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: 15%.

UCF has allowed 26 first down receptions in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most in the Big 12


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About the Author

Nick Hennion

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Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.