Utah St vs New Mexico Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 9

BetMGM Betting Oct 24, 2025, 3:14 PM

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(AP Photo/Doug McSchooler)

New Mexico is a -3 point favorite vs. Utah St
Utah State vs. New Mexico Total (Over/Under): 61.5 points
TV Channel: ALT | MWN

Utah State (4-3) visit Dreamstyle Stadium to take on New Mexico (4-3) on Oct. 25 in Albuquerque, NM. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00pm EDT.

New Mexico is a betting favorite in Week 9, with the spread sitting at -3 (100).

The Utah State vs. New Mexico Over/Under is 61.5 total points.

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Utah State vs. New Mexico Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Utah State	+3 -120	61.5 -105	130
New Mexico	-3 100	61.5 -115	-155

Utah State vs New Mexico Prediction:

The winning team model predicts New Mexico will win this game with 54.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Utah St and New Mexico, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Utah State vs New Mexico Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts New Mexico will cover the spread with 52.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Utah State Best Bets Today

Utah State have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.00 Units / 53% ROI)
Utah State has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
Utah State have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.70 Units / 31% ROI)
Utah State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.50 Units / 25% ROI)
Utah State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)

New Mexico Best Bets Today

New Mexico has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+3.90 Units / 12% ROI)
New Mexico has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 50% ROI)
New Mexico has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
New Mexico has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.46 Units / 11% ROI)
New Mexico has hit the Team Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.60 Units / 10% ROI)

Utah State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Utah St is 5-1 against the spread this college football season (+3.9 Units / 59.09% ROI).

Utah State is 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.4 Units / 5.16% ROI
Utah State is 4-2 when betting the Over for +1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI
Utah State is 2-4 when betting the Under for -2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI

New Mexico Against the Spread (ATS) Record

New Mexico iss 3-4 against the spread this college football season (-1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI).

New Mexico is 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.8 Units / 24.89% ROI
New Mexico is 4-3 when betting the Over for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI
New Mexico is 3-4 when betting the Under for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI

Utah State: Keys to the Game vs. New Mexico

New Mexico allowed 10.0 touchdowns per interception (30 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) last season– worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

New Mexico intercepted 3 of 395 attempts (131.7 pass attempts per int.) last season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 37.9

New Mexico allowed 10.0 touchdowns per interception (30 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

New Mexico has allowed 6.7 touchdowns per interception (40 TDs allowed, and 6 INT) since the 2024 season– worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

New Mexico has allowed 6.7 touchdowns per interception (40 TDs allowed, and 6 INT) since the 2024 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

New Mexico: Keys to the Game vs. Utah State

New Mexico TEs have 11 receptions in the Red Zone this season– T-most among FBS Teams

New Mexico TEs have been targeted 16 times in the Red Zone this season– most among FBS Teams

New Mexico’s RBs has averaged 11.0 yards after the catch this season — 21st-best among FBS RBs. Utah State’s defense has allowed 12.2 RAC this season — T-31st-worst among FBS defenses.

New Mexico’s TEs has 49 receptions in 7 games (7.0 per game) this season — 2nd-best among FBS TEs. Utah State’s defense has allowed just 2.0 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-5th-best among FBS defenses.

New Mexico RBs averaged 8.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (165 yards / 20 touches) on 3rd and short last season– T-4th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4

Matchup Notes for Utah State vs. New Mexico