UTEP vs New Mexico State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 14

New Mexico State running back Monte Watkins (8) in action during an NCAA college football game against Hawaii, Saturday, Sept. 23, 2023, in Honolulu. (AP Photo/Marco Garcia)
(AP Photo/Marco Garcia)
  • New Mexico State is a -2.5 point favorite vs. UTEP
  • UTEP vs. New Mexico State Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPN+

The UTEP Miners (2-9) visit Aggie Memorial Stadium to take on the New Mexico State Aggies (3-8) on Nov. 30 in Las Cruces, NM. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00pm EST.

New Mexico State is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).

The UTEP vs. New Mexico State Over/Under is 51.5 total points.

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UTEP vs. New Mexico State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
UTEP+2.5 -10551.5 -110+120
New Mexico State -2.5 -11551.5 -110-145

UTEP vs New Mexico State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts New Mexico State will win this game with 57.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both UTEP and New Mexico State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

UTEP vs New Mexico State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts New Mexico State will cover the spread with 58.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


Bet now on New Mexico State vs UTEP and all games with BetMGM


  • UTEP has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.95 Units / 49% ROI)
  • UTEP has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.80 Units / 50% ROI)
  • UTEP has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
  • UTEP have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.65 Units / 23% ROI)
  • UTEP have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
  • New Mexico State has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.60 Units / 25% ROI)
  • New Mexico State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 1 of their last 5 games at home (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
  • New Mexico State has hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games at home (+1.70 Units / 22% ROI)
  • New Mexico State have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.60 Units / 12% ROI)
  • New Mexico State have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for UTEP players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best UTEP Player Prop Bets Today

  • Ezell Jolly has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Kam Thomas has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Trey Goodman has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Skyler Locklear has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for New Mexico State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best New Mexico State Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • PJ Johnson III has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Mike Washington has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • TJ Pride has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game at home (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

UTEP Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UTEP is 4-7 against the spread this college football season (-3.65 Units / -30.29% ROI).

  • UTEP is 2-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.35 Units / -51% ROI
  • UTEP is 5-6 when betting the Over for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI
  • UTEP is 6-5 when betting the Under for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI

New Mexico State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

New Mexico State is 5-6 against the spread this college football season (-1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI).

  • New Mexico State is 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.95 Units / -7.45% ROI
  • New Mexico State is 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 30.08% ROI
  • New Mexico State is 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.55 Units / -38.08% ROI

UTEP: Keys to the Game vs. New Mexico State

UTEP is winless (0-12) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .312

UTEP is winless (0-7) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .388

UTEP is 2-17 (.105) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2023 season– 5th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .361

UTEP is 2-14 (.125) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-4th-worst in FBS; Average: .446

New Mexico State: Keys to the Game vs. UTEP

New Mexico State is winless (0-6) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .458

New Mexico State is winless (0-6) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .402

New Mexico State is 2-7 (.200) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season– T-13th-worst in FBS; Average: .485

New Mexico State is 2-6 (.222) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– T-24th-worst in FBS; Average: .415

Matchup Notes for UTEP vs. New Mexico State

New Mexico State’s offense has thrown for 4,584 passing yards in 26 games (just 176.3 YPG) since the 2023 season — 9th-worst among FBS offenses. UTEP’s defense has allowed just 198.0 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.

New Mexico State has just 0.7 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-6th-worst among FBS skill players. UTEP’s defense has allowed 1.8 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.

New Mexico State’s RBs has 0.4 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-6th-best among FBS RBs. UTEP’s defense has allowed 1.8 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.

UTEP’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.5% of 669 attempts since the 2023 season — T-35th-best among FBS offenses. New Mexico State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.9% of attempts since the 2023 season — 19th-worst among FBS defenses.

UTEP has averaged just 10.5 yards after the catch this season — T-11th-worst among FBS skill players. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 12.5 RAC this season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.

UTEP’s RBs has rushed for 1,013 yards on 271 carries (just 3.7 YPC) this season — T-2nd-worst among FBS RBs. New Mexico State’s defense have allowed 5.2 YPC this season — T-14th-worst among FBS defenses.

UTEP Offensive Stats & Trends

UTEP RBs have rushed for 3 TDs on 271 carries (90.3 Carries Per TD) this season– 6th-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 21.1

UTEP WRs had no touchdowns on 17 receptions last week– T-2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.2

UTEP Skill Players have no touchdowns on 35 receptions in close and late situations this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.7

UTEP’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.5% of 669 attempts since the 2023 season — T-35th-best among FBS offenses. New Mexico State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.9% of attempts since the 2023 season — 19th-worst among FBS defenses.

UTEP Skill Players have averaged 20.2 yards per reception (81 yards/4 catches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 10.4

New Mexico State Offensive Stats & Trends

New Mexico State WRs have caught just 74 of 180 passes (41% Reception Pct) this season– 2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 60%

New Mexico State WRs have averaged a touchdown every 24.7 receptions (74 Rec/3 TDs) this season– 5th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.1

New Mexico State Skill Players have caught just 118 of 254 passes (47% Reception Pct) this season– 2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 63%

New Mexico State’s offense has thrown for 4,584 passing yards in 26 games (just 176.3 YPG) since the 2023 season — 9th-worst among FBS offenses. UTEP’s defense has allowed just 198.0 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.

New Mexico State RBs have averaged 13.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (247 yards / 18 touches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 7.0

UTEP Miners Defensive Stats & Trends

UTEP allowed 4 TD passes in the Red Zone last week– most in FBS

UTEP allowed 4 TD passes in the Red Zone last week– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

UTEP allowed 4 first down receptions in the Red Zone last week– T-most in FBS

UTEP allowed 4 TD passes last week– T-most in FBS

UTEP allowed 8 TDs in the Red Zone last week– most in FBS

New Mexico State Aggies Defensive Stats & Trends

New Mexico State has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 18 of 353 attempts (5%) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 2%

New Mexico State did not record a sack (45 pass attempts) last week– T-worst in FBS; Average: 14.4

New Mexico State has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 18 of 353 attempts (5%) this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2%

New Mexico State did not record a sack (45 pass attempts) last week– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.3

New Mexico State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 46 of 429 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) this season– 4th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.


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About the Author

Nick Hennion

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Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.