UTEP vs Sam Houston St Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 8

BetMGM Betting Oct 15, 2025, 6:57 PM

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(AP Photo/Doug McSchooler)

UTEP is a -3.5 point favorite vs. Sam Houston St
UTEP vs. Sam Houston State Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points
TV Channel: CBSN

UTEP (1-5) visit Shell Energy Stadium to take on Sam Houston State (0-6) on Oct. 15 in Houston, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT.

UTEP is a betting favorite in Week 8, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).

The UTEP vs. Sam Houston State Over/Under is 45.5 total points.

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UTEP vs. Sam Houston State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
UTEP	-3.5 -105	45.5 -110	-160
Sam Houston State	+3.5 -115	45.5 -118	135

UTEP vs Sam Houston State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts UTEP will win this game with 56.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both UTEP and Sam Houston St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

UTEP vs Sam Houston State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Sam Houston will cover the spread with 56.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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UTEP Best Bets Today

UTEP has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.75 Units / 26% ROI)
UTEP has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.27 Units / 9% ROI)
UTEP have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
UTEP has hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
UTEP have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.75 Units / 13% ROI)

Sam Houston State Best Bets Today

Sam Houston State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.75 Units / 45% ROI)
Sam Houston State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.85 Units / 55% ROI)
Sam Houston has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
Sam Houston has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.80 Units / 26% ROI)
Sam Houston State has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+0.40 Units / 4% ROI)

UTEP Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UTEP is 2-4 against the spread this college football season (-2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI).

UTEP is 1-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.1 Units / -52.23% ROI
UTEP is 2-4 when betting the Over for -2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI
UTEP is 4-2 when betting the Under for +1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI

Sam Houston State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Sam Houston St iss against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

Sam Houston State is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
Sam Houston State is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
Sam Houston State is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

UTEP: Keys to the Game vs. Sam Houston State

Sam Houston opponents averaged 13.5 Passing Attempts per TD (27 Pass Attempts/2 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 3.8

Sam Houston opponents averaged 13.5 Passing Attempts per TD (27 Pass Attempts/2 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.8

Sam Houston has allowed a Completion Pct of 90% (18 completions/20 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 61%

Sam Houston has no interceptions (63 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 33.5

Sam Houston allowed a Completion Pct of just 39% (24 completions/61 attempts) on 3rd and long last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%

Sam Houston State: Keys to the Game vs. UTEP

Sam Houston TEs have no touchdowns on 26 receptions since the 2024 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 9.6

Sam Houston TEs had no touchdowns on 15 receptions last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 9.6

Sam Houston WRs fumbled 9 times last season– T-most among FBS Teams

Sam Houston’s WRs has averaged just 11.0 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst among FBS WRs. UTEP’s defense has allowed 12.2 RAC since the 2024 season — T-29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Sam Houston RBs averaged just 3.1 Yards per Carry (667 yards/215 carries) in the 2023 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

Matchup Notes for UTEP vs. Sam Houston State