UTEP vs Tennessee Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava (8) throws to a receiver during warmups before an NCAA college football game against Vanderbilt Saturday, Nov. 25, 2023, in Knoxville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Wade Payne)
(AP Photo/Wade Payne)
  • Tennessee is a -41.5 point favorite vs. UTEP
  • UTEP vs. Tennessee Total (Over/Under): 52.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPN+

The UTEP Miners (2-8) visit Neyland Stadium to take on the Tennessee Volunteers (8-2) on Nov. 23 in Knoxville, TN. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST.

Tennessee is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -41.5 (-110).

The UTEP vs. Tennessee Over/Under is 52.5 total points.

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UTEP vs. Tennessee Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
UTEP+41.5 -11052.5 -110+
Tennessee -41.5 -11052.5 -110+

UTEP vs Tennessee Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Tennessee will win this game with 95.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both UTEP and Tennessee, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

UTEP vs Tennessee Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UTEP will cover the spread with 86.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • UTEP has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
  • UTEP has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 9 games (+0.85 Units / 9% ROI)
  • UTEP has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.65 Units / 11% ROI)
  • UTEP have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.65 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Tennessee has hit the Moneyline in their last 7 games at home (+7.45 Units / 1% ROI)
  • Tennessee has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Tennessee has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+3.70 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Tennessee have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 10 games (+2.00 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Tennessee have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.30 Units / 10% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for UTEP players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best UTEP Player Prop Bets Today

  • Ezell Jolly has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Skyler Locklear has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Kam Thomas has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Trey Goodman has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Tennessee players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Tennessee Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Dylan Sampson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Squirrel White has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Nico Iamaleava has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Dylan Sampson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Bru McCoy has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

UTEP Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UTEP is 4-6 against the spread this college football season (-2.55 Units / -23.29% ROI).

  • UTEP is 2-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.35 Units / -51% ROI
  • UTEP is 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
  • UTEP is 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI

Tennessee Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Tennessee is 5-5 against the spread this college football season (-0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • Tennessee is 7-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.95 Units / 0.09% ROI
  • Tennessee is 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Tennessee is 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI

UTEP: Keys to the Game vs. Tennessee

UTEP is 2-16 (.111) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2023 season– 6th-worst in FBS; Average: .413

UTEP is winless (0-11) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .313

UTEP is 1-15 (.062) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: .383

UTEP is 1-15 (.062) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .334

Tennessee: Keys to the Game vs. UTEP

Tennessee is 17-2 (.895) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .652

Tennessee is 17-4 (.810) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– T-16th-best in FBS; Average: .580

Tennessee is 12-5 (.706) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– 26th-best in FBS; Average: .536

Tennessee is 16-4 (.800) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– T-29th-best in FBS; Average: .641

Matchup Notes for UTEP vs. Tennessee

Tennessee’s TEs has gained 405 yards on 40 receptions (just 10.1 YPR) this season — 4th-worst among SEC TEs. UTEP’s defense has allowed just 8.2 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-13th-best among FBS defenses.

Tennessee’s RBs has 3 rushing touchdowns per game this season — T-2nd-best among FBS RBs. UTEP’s defense has allowed 2.0 rushing touchdowns per game this season — T-29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Tennessee’s RBs have just 13.3 receiving yards per game this season — T-17th-worst among FBS RBs. UTEP’s defense has allowed 30.1 receiving yards per game to RBs this season — 34th-worst among FBS defenses.

UTEP’s WRs have just 138.9 receiving yards per game this season — 35th-worst among FBS WRs. Tennessee’s defense has allowed just 189.1 receiving yards per game this season — 4th-best among SEC defenses.

UTEP has gained 2,069 yards on 188 receptions (just 11.0 YPR) this season — T-25th-worst among FBS skill players. Tennessee’s defense has allowed just 11.1 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among SEC defenses.

UTEP’s WRs has just 0.7 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-24th-worst among FBS WRs. Tennessee’s defense has allowed just 0.8 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-9th-best among FBS defenses.

UTEP Offensive Stats & Trends

UTEP RBs have 8 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

UTEP RBs have been targeted 5.7 times per game (57/10) in the 1st half this season– 2nd-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 2.4

UTEP RBs have been targeted 9.8 times per game (98/10) this season– highest among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4

UTEP Skill Players have averaged 20.2 yards per reception (81 yards/4 catches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– T-2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 10.4

UTEP Skill Players have no touchdowns on 33 receptions in close and late situations this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 12.0

Tennessee Offensive Stats & Trends

Tennessee’s TEs has gained 405 yards on 40 receptions (just 10.1 YPR) this season — 4th-worst among SEC TEs. UTEP’s defense has allowed just 8.2 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-13th-best among FBS defenses.

Tennessee RBs have carried the ball 60 times on 3rd down this season– most among FBS Teams

Tennessee Skill Players have averaged just 10.5 yards per reception (925 yards/88 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 13.0

Tennessee WRs have averaged a touchdown every 3.3 receptions (20 Rec/6 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

Tennessee WRs averaged a touchdown every 4.3 receptions (13 Rec/3 TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 1.9

UTEP Miners Defensive Stats & Trends

UTEP has sacked opponents 5 times in the Red Zone this season– T-4th-most among Non-Power Conference Teams

UTEP has tackled opponents for a loss on 77 of 406 rushing attempts (19% TFL%) this season– T-27th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.

UTEP has averaged a sack every 4.2 pass attempts (21 Pass Attempts/5 Sacks) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 15.1

UTEP has averaged a sack every 6.9 pass attempts (55 Pass Attempts/8 Sacks) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-2nd-best in FBS; Average: 15.1

UTEP has sacked opposing QBs on 8% of pass attempts (49/583) since the 2023 season– T-22nd-best in FBS; Average: 7%

Tennessee Volunteers Defensive Stats & Trends

Tennessee allowed 4 TDs in the Red Zone last week– most in the SEC

Tennessee defense allowed 4 completions for 20 or more yards on 1st down last week– most in the SEC

Tennessee did not record a sack (40 pass attempts) last week– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.1

Tennessee has allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 1 of 296 attempts (0%) this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2%

Tennessee has allowed first downs on 3% of rush attempts on 3rd and long this season– best in the SEC; Average: 13%


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