UTSA vs Texas Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 3

• The Texas Longhorns are a -30 point favorite vs. the UT San Antonio Roadrunners
• UTSA vs. Texas Total (Over/Under): 58.5 points
• TV Channel: SEC+

UTSA (2-0) visit DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium to take on Texas (2-0) on Sep. 19 in Austin, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 pm.

The Texas Longhorns are betting favorites in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -30 (-110).

The UTSA vs. Texas Over/Under is 58.5 total points.

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UTSA vs. Texas Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

UTSA vs Texas Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Texas will win this game with 94.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the UT San Antonio Roadrunners and the Texas Longhorns, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

UTSA vs Texas Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UTSA will cover the spread with 63.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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UTSA Best Bets Today

• UTSA has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+6.50 Units / 21% ROI)
• UTSA has hit the Team Total Under in their last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 87% ROI)
• UTSA has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
• UTSA has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.30 Units / 24% ROI)
• UTSA has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+2.85 Units / 5% ROI)

Texas Best Bets Today

• Texas has hit the Moneyline in their last 7 games at home (+7.15 Units / 12% ROI)
• Texas has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.50 Units / 30% ROI)
• Texas have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)
• Texas has hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.70 Units / 40% ROI)
• Texas have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+2.00 Units / 22% ROI)

UTSA Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UT San Antonio Roadrunners is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 94.34% ROI).

• UTSA is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.05 Units / 4.46% ROI
• UTSA is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.59% ROI
• UTSA is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.12 Units / -5.41% ROI

Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas Longhorns is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.5% ROI).

• Texas is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 3.97% ROI
• Texas is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.44% ROI
• Texas is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.05 Units / -2.33% ROI

UTSA: Keys to the Game vs. Texas

UTSA was undefeated (6-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass in the 2023 season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .613

UTSA was 1-2 (.333) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-37th-worst in FBS; Average: .460

UTSA was 7-2 (.778) when allowing less than 3 sacks in the 2023 season– 10th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .581

UTSA was 5-1 (.833) when not losing a fumble in the 2023 season– T-4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .517

Texas: Keys to the Game vs. UTSA

Texas was 10-2 (.833) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .481

Texas was 11-3 (.786) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– 30th-best in FBS; Average: .602

Texas was 10-2 (.833) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-17th-best in FBS; Average: .604

Texas was 13-3 (.812) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– 26th-best in FBS; Average: .628

Matchup Notes for UTSA vs. Texas

Texas gained 3,255 yards on 257 receptions (12.7 YPR) last season — T-33rd-best among FBS skill players. UTSA’s defense allowed 12.3 Yards Per Reception last season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas’s WRs gained 2,501 yards on 172 receptions (14.5 YPR) last season — 26th-best among FBS WRs. UTSA’s defense allowed 12.3 Yards Per Reception last season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas had 2.1 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-2nd-best among SEC skill players. UTSA’s defense allowed 2.0 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-12th-worst among FBS defenses.

UTSA’s WRs gained 2,175 yards on 189 receptions (just 11.5 YPR) last season — T-17th-worst among FBS WRs. Texas’s defense allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception last season — T-2nd-best among SEC defenses.

UTSA’s WRs gained 2,175 yards on 189 receptions (just 11.5 YPR) last season — T-17th-worst among FBS WRs. Texas’s defense allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception last season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

UTSA’s offense averaged 2.6 passing TDs per game last season — T-2nd-best among FBS offenses. Texas’s defense allowed 1.4 passing TDs per game last season — 5th-worst among SEC defenses.

UTSA Offensive Stats & Trends

UTSA’s WRs gained 2,175 yards on 189 receptions (just 11.5 YPR) last season — T-17th-worst among FBS WRs. Texas’s defense allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception last season — T-2nd-best among SEC defenses.

UTSA TEs had 35 receptions on 3rd down last season– most among FBS Teams

UTSA’s WRs gained 2,175 yards on 189 receptions (just 11.5 YPR) last season — T-17th-worst among FBS WRs. Texas’s defense allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception last season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

UTSA TEs were targeted 52 times on 3rd down last season– most among FBS Teams

UTSA threw 9 TDs and just one interception in the 4th quarter last season– T-7th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 1.6

Texas Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas QBs had 25 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down last season– most among FBS Teams

Texas QBs had 79 completions for 20 or more yards last season– T-most among FBS Teams

Texas WRs averaged 23.8 yards per reception (476 yards/20 catches) on 3rd and long last season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.8

Texas RBs were targeted 7 times on 1st down last week– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Texas Skill Players had 48 receptions in the Red Zone last season– most among SEC Teams

UTSA Defensive Stats & Trends

UTSA tackled opponents for a loss on 17 of 63 rushing attempts (27% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.

UTSA tackled opponents for a loss on 97 of 420 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

UTSA tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 31 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) on 3rd and short last season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.

UTSA tackled opponents for a loss on 17 of 63 rushing attempts (27% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 15%.

UTSA allowed 14.6 yards per completion (3,283 yards/225 completions) last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.0

Texas Defensive Stats & Trends

Texas opponents averaged 54.3 Passing Attempts per TD (489 Pass Attempts/9 Passing TDs) last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.7

Texas opponents averaged 10.2 Passing Attempts per TD (41 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– best in FBS; Average: 3.9

Texas opponents averaged 54.3 Passing Attempts per TD (489 Pass Attempts/9 Passing TDs) last season– best in FBS; Average: 20.6

Texas opponents averaged 54.3 Passing Attempts per TD (489 Pass Attempts/9 Passing TDs) last season– best in the SEC; Average: 25.9

Texas allowed 9 touchdowns on 292 completions (32.4 Completions Per TD) last season– best in FBS; Average: 12.5

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