Vanderbilt vs Georgia State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 3

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Georgia State running back Freddie Brock (25) runs with the ball against Utah State in the first half of the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl NCAA college football game, Saturday, Dec. 23, 2023, in Boise, Idaho. Georgia State won 45-22. (AP Photo/Steve Conner)
(AP Photo/Steve Conner)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 12, 2024, 11:24 AM
  • Vanderbilt is a -10.5 point favorite vs. Georgia State
  • Vanderbilt vs. Georgia State Total(Over/Under): 46.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPN+

The Vanderbilt Commodores (2-0) visit Center Parc Stadium to take on the Georgia State Panthers (1-1) on Sep. 14 in Atlanta, GA. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT.

Vanderbilt is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-110).

The Vanderbilt vs. Georgia State Over/Under is 46.5 total points.

Bet now on Georgia State vs Vanderbilt & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Vanderbilt vs. Georgia State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Vanderbilt-10.5 -11046.5 -110-450
Georgia State +10.5 -11046.5 -110+325

Vanderbilt vs Georgia State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Vanderbilt will win this game with 76.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Vanderbilt and Georgia State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Vanderbilt vs Georgia State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Georgia State will cover the spread with 86.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


Bet now on Georgia State vs Vanderbilt and all games with BetMGM


  • Vanderbilt has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Vanderbilt have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 10 games (+1.60 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Vanderbilt has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 2 of their last 3 away games (+1.00 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Vanderbilt has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 2 of their last 3 away games (+0.90 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Georgia State have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.70 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Georgia State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.00 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Georgia State has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Georgia State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.05 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Georgia State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.05 Units / 7% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Vanderbilt players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Vanderbilt Player Prop Bets Today

  • Diego Pavia has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 45% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Georgia State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Georgia State Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Freddie Brock has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)
  • Ja’Cyais Credle has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Cadarrius Thompson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Tailique Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Ahmon Green has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)

Vanderbilt Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Vanderbilt is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).

  • Vanderbilt is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 400% ROI
  • Vanderbilt is 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • Vanderbilt is 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI

Georgia State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Georgia State is 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).

  • Georgia State is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
  • Georgia State is 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
  • Georgia State is 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI

Vanderbilt: Keys to the Game vs. Georgia State

Vanderbilt is winless (0-9) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .411

Vanderbilt is 1-9 (.083) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .371

Vanderbilt is 1-8 (.111) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-7th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .406

Vanderbilt is 1-9 (.100) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-17th-worst in FBS; Average: .358

Georgia State: Keys to the Game vs. Vanderbilt

Georgia State is winless (0-7) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .395

Georgia State is winless (0-4) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .255

Georgia State is winless (0-5) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .304

Georgia State is 2-5 (.286) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-31st-worst in FBS; Average: .508

Matchup Notes for Vanderbilt vs. Georgia State

Georgia State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 5.6% of 72 attempts this season — 15th-worst among FBS offenses. Vanderbilt’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 14.0% of attempts this season — 14th-best among FBS defenses.

Vanderbilt’s offense has thrown for 290 passing yards in 2 games (just 145.0 YPG) this season — 15th-worst among FBS offenses. Georgia State’s defense has allowed 253.0 passing yards per game this season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.

Vanderbilt’s QBs has thrown for 273 passing yards in 2 games (just 136.5 YPG) this season — 12th-worst among FBS teams. Georgia State’s defense has allowed 253.0 passing yards per game this season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.

Vanderbilt have just 145.0 receiving yards per game this season — 15th-worst among FBS skill players. Georgia State’s defense has allowed 253.0 receiving yards per game this season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.

Vanderbilt Offensive Stats & Trends

Vanderbilt Skill Players have averaged just 3.8 yards per reception (34 yards/9 catches) on 3rd and short since the 2022 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 10.6

Vanderbilt’s offense has thrown for 290 passing yards in 2 games (just 145.0 YPG) this season — 15th-worst among FBS offenses. Georgia State’s defense has allowed 253.0 passing yards per game this season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.

Vanderbilt Skill Players have caught just 53 of 121 passes (44% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long since the 2022 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 58%

Vanderbilt Skill Players have caught just 90 of 198 passes (46% Reception Pct) on 3rd down since the 2022 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 60%

Vanderbilt Skill Players have averaged just 3.0 yards per reception (18 yards/6 catches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 11.3

Georgia State Offensive Stats & Trends

Georgia State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 5.6% of 72 attempts this season — 15th-worst among FBS offenses. Vanderbilt’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 14.0% of attempts this season — 14th-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia State QBs have rushed for 8 TDs in the 1st quarter since the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams

Georgia State QBs have rushed for 365 yards in the 1st quarter since the 2023 season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Georgia State RBs have no touchdowns on 40 receptions since the 2022 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 21.3

Georgia State Skill Players have been targeted 18 times in close and late situations this season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams

Vanderbilt Commodores Defensive Stats & Trends

Vanderbilt has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 2 of 50 attempts (4%) this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 1%

Vanderbilt has allowed 239.7 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs since the 2022 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 168.9

Vanderbilt has allowed 107 TDs since the 2022 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 2.8

Vanderbilt has allowed 8.1 yards from scrimmage per touch (11,392 yards / 1,409 touches) since the 2022 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 6.7

Vanderbilt has allowed a Completion Pct of 68% (320 completions/471 attempts) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

Georgia State Panthers Defensive Stats & Trends

Georgia State has allowed a Completion Pct of 95% (18 completions/19 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 62%

Georgia State has allowed a Completion Pct of 95% (18 completions/19 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%

Georgia State has allowed 34 TD passes since the 2023 season– T-2nd-most in FBS

Georgia State has allowed 34 TD passes since the 2023 season– T-most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Georgia State has allowed a Completion Pct of 66% (33 completions/50 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-9th-worst in FBS; Average: 53%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.