Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 11, 2022, 2:50 PM
  • Kentucky (6-3) are -17.5 point favorites vs Vanderbilt (3-6)
  • Total (Over/Under): 48 points
  • Watch the game on SEC Network

The Vanderbilt Commodores (5-6) visit Kroger Field to take on the Kentucky Wildcats (6-5) on Nov. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST in Lexington.

are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky is total points.

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Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Vanderbilt
Kentucky

Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Kentucky will win this game with 71.8% confidence.

Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Kentucky will cover the spread with 69.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Vanderbilt and Kentucky, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Kentucky Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Kentucky players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Chris Rodriguez Jr. has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Tayvion Robinson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.60 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Dane Key has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Will Levis has hit the TD Passes Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+2.50 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Vanderbilt has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.80 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Vanderbilt has hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Vanderbilt have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Vanderbilt has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.70 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Vanderbilt have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.65 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Kentucky has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Kentucky has hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+7.25 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Kentucky have covered the Spread in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.25 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Kentucky has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.80 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Kentucky have covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.85 Units / 23% ROI)

Vanderbilt Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Vanderbilt has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Vanderbilt is 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.9 Units / -4.88% ROI
  • Vanderbilt is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • Vanderbilt is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI

Kentucky Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kentucky has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Kentucky is 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.55 Units / 11.23% ROI
  • Kentucky is 1-8 when betting the Over for -7.8 Units / -78.79% ROI
  • Kentucky is 8-1 when betting the Under for +6.9 Units / 69.7% ROI

Vanderbilt: Keys to the Game vs. Kentucky

Vanderbilt is winless (0-10) when rushing more than 30 times — tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .447

Vanderbilt is winless (0-15) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2020 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .465

Vanderbilt is winless (0-8) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team — worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .497

Vanderbilt is winless (0-14) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .435

Kentucky: Keys to the Game vs. Vanderbilt

#19 Kentucky is 12-2 (.750) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays — tied for 13th-best in FBS; Average: .511

#19 Kentucky is 1-6 (.143) when allowing 22 or more points — tied for 14th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .301

#19 Kentucky is undefeated (5-0) when averaging more than 5 yards per rush — 5th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .501

#19 Kentucky is 8-5 (.571) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties — tied for 10th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .376

Matchup Notes for Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky

Kentucky’s TEs has 4 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for fifth-most among P5 TEs. Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 10 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — most among SEC defenses.

Vanderbilt’s RBs has 10 rushing touchdowns since the 2021 season — tied for second-fewest among FBS RBs. Kentucky’s defense has allowed 23 rushing TDs since the 2021 season — fourth-fewest among SEC defenses.

Vanderbilt’s offense has given up6 sacks this season — tied for fourth-fewest among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense has sacked the quarterback 12 times this season — tied for second-fewest among SEC defenses.

Vanderbilt’s offense has 14 rushing touchdowns since the 2021 season — fewest among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense has allowed 23 rushing TDs since the 2021 season — fourth-fewest among SEC defenses.

Vanderbilt Offensive Stats & Trends

Vanderbilt RBs have averaged just 3.1 Yards per Carry (280 yards/91 carries) in the 4th quarter since last season– 2nd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

Vanderbilt RBs have averaged 3.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (865 yards / 231 touches) in the 2nd half since last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

Vanderbilt RBs have averaged 3.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (386 yards / 107 touches) in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3

Vanderbilt RBs have averaged 4.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (2,189 yards / 516 touches) since last season– tied for 3rd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

Vanderbilt’s RBs has 10 rushing touchdowns since the 2021 season — tied for second-fewest among FBS RBs. Kentucky’s defense has allowed 23 rushing TDs since the 2021 season — fourth-fewest among SEC defenses.

Kentucky Offensive Stats & Trends

Kentucky have been sacked on 15% of pass attempts (31/213) this season– worst among Power 5 Offenses; Average: 6%

Kentucky have been sacked on 15% of pass attempts (31/213) this season– 3rd worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 7%

Kentucky RBs have averaged 6.1 Yards per Carry (827 yards/136 carries) in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for 4th best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

Kentucky WRs have 8 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– tied for 2nd most among Power 5 Teams

Kentucky Skill Players have 9 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– tied for 4th most among Power 5 Teams

Vanderbilt Commodores Defensive Stats & Trends

Vanderbilt has allowed a passer rating of 185.5 (213.0 Pass Attempts) this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 126.9

Vanderbilt has allowed a passer rating of 185.5 (213.0 Pass Attempts) this season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 131.1

Vanderbilt has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 6 of 22 attempts (27%) on 3rd and long this season– best in FBS; Average: 9%

Vanderbilt has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 87 of 606 attempts (14%) since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10%

Vanderbilt has sacked opposing QBs just once on 88 pass attempts in the Red Zone since last season– 4th worst in FBS; Average: 16.0

Kentucky Wildcats Defensive Stats & Trends

Kentucky has allowed 5 touchdowns on 135 completions (27.0 Completions Per TD) this season– 4th best in FBS; Average: 12.5

Kentucky has allowed 8.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (140 yards / 17 touches) on 3rd and short this season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 4.6

Kentucky opponents has averaged 45.0 Passing Attempts per TD (225 Pass Attempts/5 Passing TDs) this season– 5th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 22.8

Kentucky has averaged a sack every 9.2 pass attempts (55 Pass Attempts/6 Sacks) in the Red Zone since last season– 5th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16.2

Kentucky has one interception and 2 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone this season– tied for 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 8.1


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.