- Missouri is a -20.5 point favorite vs. Vanderbilt
- Vanderbilt vs. Missouri Total(Over/Under): 53.5 points
- TV Channel: SECN
The Vanderbilt Commodores (2-1) visit Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field to take on the Missouri Tigers (3-0) on Sep. 21 in Columbia, MO. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15pm EDT.
Missouri is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -20.5 (-115).
The Vanderbilt vs. Missouri Over/Under is 53.5 total points.
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Vanderbilt vs. Missouri Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Vanderbilt | +20.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | +900 |
| Missouri | -20.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -1600 |
Vanderbilt vs Missouri Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Missouri will win this game with 93.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Vanderbilt and Missouri, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Vanderbilt vs Missouri Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Missouri will cover the spread with 62.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Vanderbilt Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Vanderbilt has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Vanderbilt has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- Vanderbilt has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.70 Units / 12% ROI)
Missouri Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Missouri has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+8.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Missouri has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- Missouri have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- Missouri have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- Missouri has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.85 Units / 29% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Vanderbilt players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Vanderbilt Player Prop Bets Today
- Diego Pavia has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 45% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Missouri players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Missouri Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Brady Cook has hit the TD Passes Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.25 Units / 52% ROI)
- Luther Burden III has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 57% ROI)
- Mookie Cooper has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Brady Cook has hit the Passing Yards Over in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+2.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- Theo Wease Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+2.40 Units / 22% ROI)
Vanderbilt Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Vanderbilt is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Vanderbilt is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.55 Units / 12.36% ROI
- Vanderbilt is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Vanderbilt is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
Missouri Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Missouri is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.05 Units / -2.33% ROI).
- Missouri is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 16.53% ROI
- Missouri is 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
- Missouri is 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
Vanderbilt: Keys to the Game vs. Missouri
Vanderbilt is 1-9 (.077) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .365
Vanderbilt is 1-10 (.091) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-10th-worst in FBS; Average: .391
Vanderbilt is 1-9 (.100) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst in FBS; Average: .497
Vanderbilt is 1-8 (.111) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .453
Missouri: Keys to the Game vs. Vanderbilt
Missouri is 6-1 (.667) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-17th-best in FBS; Average: .441
Missouri is undefeated (9-0) when not throwing an interception since the 2023 season– T-6th-best in FBS; Average: .589
Missouri is 11-1 (.786) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 16th-best in FBS; Average: .517
Missouri is 9-1 (.900) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 5th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .559
Matchup Notes for Vanderbilt vs. Missouri
Missouri’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 6.2% of 113 attempts this season — T-15th-worst among FBS offenses. Vanderbilt’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.0% of attempts this season — 4th-best among SEC defenses.
Missouri’s QBs has thrown for 4,175 passing yards in 16 games (260.9 YPG) since the 2023 season — 33rd-best among FBS teams. Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 265.1 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 9th-worst among FBS defenses.
Missouri has just 1.6 receiving touchdowns per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among SEC skill players. Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 2.1 receiving touchdowns per game since the 2023 season — T-8th-worst among FBS defenses.
Vanderbilt’s QBs has thrown for 543 passing yards in 3 games (just 181.0 YPG) this season — 33rd-worst among FBS teams. Missouri’s defense has allowed just 110.3 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-best among SEC defenses.
Vanderbilt has gained 559 yards on 40 receptions (14.0 YPR) this season — T-31st-best among FBS skill players. Missouri’s defense has allowed 11.4 Yards Per Reception this season — 4th-worst among SEC defenses.
Vanderbilt’s QBs has thrown for 543 passing yards in 3 games (just 181.0 YPG) this season — 33rd-worst among FBS teams. Missouri’s defense has allowed just 110.3 passing yards per game this season — 7th-best among FBS defenses.
Vanderbilt Offensive Stats & Trends
Vanderbilt Skill Players have averaged just 3.8 yards per reception (34 yards/9 catches) on 3rd and short since the 2022 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 10.6
Vanderbilt TEs have been targeted 8.0 times per game (16/2) in the 2nd half this season– highest among FBS Teams; Average: 2.5
Vanderbilt TEs have picked up first downs on 5 receptions in the 4th quarter this season– most among SEC Teams
Vanderbilt TEs have 6 receptions in close and late situations this season– most among SEC Teams
Vanderbilt TEs have 6 receptions in the 4th quarter this season– most among SEC Teams
Missouri Offensive Stats & Trends
Missouri Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 42.0 receptions (84 Rec/2 TDs) this season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 8.9
Missouri Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 42.0 receptions (84 Rec/2 TDs) this season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.2
Missouri’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 6.2% of 113 attempts this season — T-15th-worst among FBS offenses. Vanderbilt’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.0% of attempts this season — 4th-best among SEC defenses.
Missouri Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 42.0 receptions (84 Rec/2 TDs) this season– 5th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.9
Missouri’s QBs has thrown for 4,175 passing yards in 16 games (260.9 YPG) since the 2023 season — 33rd-best among FBS teams. Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 265.1 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 9th-worst among FBS defenses.
Vanderbilt Commodores Defensive Stats & Trends
Vanderbilt has not forced a fumble (92 carries) this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 43.0
Vanderbilt has allowed 239.7 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs since the 2022 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 168.9
Vanderbilt has allowed 57 TD passes since the 2022 season– most in the SEC
Vanderbilt has allowed 234.7 receiving yards per game (5,868/25) to WRs since the 2022 season– worst in FBS; Average: 165.9
Vanderbilt has allowed 8.1 yards from scrimmage per touch (11,392 yards / 1,409 touches) since the 2022 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 6.7
Missouri Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends
Missouri has allowed 8 rushing TDs on 514 carries (64.2 Carries Per TD) since the 2023 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 24.7
Missouri has allowed 6 rushing TDs on 61 carries (10.2 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 4.7
Missouri has allowed a Completion Pct of just 46% (29 completions/63 attempts) this season– best in the SEC; Average: 60%
Missouri allowed 6 rushing TDs on 60 carries (10 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 4.7
Missouri has no interceptions and 16 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 9.9
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