Vanderbilt vs UNLV Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 3

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UNLV Rebels wide receiver Ricky White (11) runs a route during an NCAA football game against the California Golden Bears on Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022 in Berkeley, Calif. (AP Photo/Lachlan Cunningham)
(AP Photo/Lachlan Cunningham)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 16, 2023, 11:14 AM
  • Vanderbilt is a -4.5 point favorite vs. UNLV
  • Total (Over/Under): 59.5 points
  • Watch the game on CBS Sports Network

The Vanderbilt Commodores visit Allegiant Stadium to take on the UNLV Rebels on Sep. 16. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT in Las Vegas.

Vanderbilt is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -5 (-110).

The Vanderbilt vs. UNLV Over/Under is 57.5 total points.

Bet now on UNLV vs Vanderbilt & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Vanderbilt vs. UNLV Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 3

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Vanderbilt-5 -11057.5 -105-200
UNLV +5 -11057.5 -115+165

Vanderbilt vs UNLV Prediction for Week 3

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Vanderbilt will win this game with 62.1% confidence.

Vanderbilt vs UNLV Spread Prediction for Week 3

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Vanderbilt will cover the spread with 52.3% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Vanderbilt and UNLV, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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  • Vanderbilt has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games (+8.00 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Vanderbilt has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+7.10 Units / 118% ROI)
  • Vanderbilt has hit the 1H Game Total Under in their last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Vanderbilt has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.95 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Vanderbilt has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
  • UNLV has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in their last 5 games at home (+5.05 Units / 88% ROI)
  • UNLV has hit the Team Total Under in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 89% ROI)
  • UNLV has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 55% ROI)
  • UNLV has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 games (+2.85 Units / 33% ROI)
  • UNLV has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.60 Units / 20% ROI)

Best Vanderbilt Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Vanderbilt players for Week 3, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Will Sheppard has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 8 games (+1.40 Units / 15% ROI)

Vanderbilt Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Vanderbilt is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).

  • Vanderbilt is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
  • Vanderbilt is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • Vanderbilt is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI

UNLV Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UNLV is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).

  • UNLV is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 14.39% ROI
  • UNLV is 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
  • UNLV is 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI

Vanderbilt: Keys to the Game vs. UNLV

Vanderbilt is 1-12 (.077) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season– 2nd-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .422

Vanderbilt is 1-11 (.083) when not forcing a fumble since the 2021 season– 4th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .452

Vanderbilt is 1-16 (.059) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season– 3rd-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .437

Vanderbilt is 1-16 (.059) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2021 season– 2nd-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .449

UNLV: Keys to the Game vs. Vanderbilt

UNLV is winless (0-4) when intercepting no passes since the 2022 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .347

UNLV is 1-14 (.067) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season– 9th-worst in FBS; Average: .426

UNLV is 4-9 (.250) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2021 season– 15th-worst in FBS; Average: .520

UNLV is 2-13 (.133) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2021 season– tied for 8th-worst in FBS; Average: .450

Matchup Notes for Vanderbilt vs. UNLV

UNLV’s offense has thrown for 2,874 passing yards in 14 games (just 205.3 YPG) since the 2022 season — 31st-worst among FBS offenses. Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 287.8 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — tied for fifth-worst among P5 defenses.

UNLV’s QBs has thrown for 331 passing yards in 2 games (just 165.5 YPG) this season — 14th-worst among FBS teams. Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 245.7 passing yards per game this season — fifth-worst among SEC defenses.

UNLV’s offense has thrown for 2,874 passing yards in 14 games (just 205.3 YPG) since the 2022 season — 31st-worst among FBS offenses. Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 287.8 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — third-worst among SEC defenses.

Vanderbilt’s WRs have 239.7 receiving yards per game this season — 21st-best among FBS WRs. UNLV’s defense has allowed 271.5 receiving yards per game this season — 27th-worst among FBS defenses.

Vanderbilt has gained 818 yards on 62 receptions (13.2 YPR) this season — fifth-best among SEC skill players. UNLV’s defense has allowed 12.9 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for 28th-worst among FBS defenses.

Vanderbilt’s WRs have 239.7 receiving yards per game this season — 21st-best among FBS WRs. UNLV’s defense has allowed 232.0 receiving yards per game to WRs this season — tied for 16th-worst among FBS defenses.

Vanderbilt Offensive Stats & Trends

Vanderbilt WRs have caught 4 touchdown passes in the Red Zone this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Vanderbilt Skill Players have caught 5 touchdown passes in the Red Zone this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Vanderbilt WRs have been targeted 16 times on 3rd down this season– most among FBS Teams

Vanderbilt WRs have been targeted 53 times this season– 3rd-most among FBS Teams

Vanderbilt WRs have 168 receiving yards on 3rd down this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

UNLV Offensive Stats & Trends

UNLV’s offense has thrown for 2,874 passing yards in 14 games (just 205.3 YPG) since the 2022 season — 31st-worst among FBS offenses. Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 287.8 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — tied for fifth-worst among P5 defenses.

UNLV’s QBs has thrown for 331 passing yards in 2 games (just 165.5 YPG) this season — 14th-worst among FBS teams. Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 245.7 passing yards per game this season — fifth-worst among SEC defenses.

UNLV’s offense has thrown for 2,874 passing yards in 14 games (just 205.3 YPG) since the 2022 season — 31st-worst among FBS offenses. Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 287.8 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — third-worst among SEC defenses.

UNLV’s offense has thrown for 294 passing yards in 2 games (just 147.0 YPG) this season — ninth-worst among FBS offenses. Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 245.7 passing yards per game this season — fifth-worst among SEC defenses.

UNLV TEs have no touchdowns on 21 receptions since last season– tied for 3rd worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 9.6

Vanderbilt Commodores Defensive Stats & Trends

Vanderbilt allowed a passer rating of 169.2 (300.0 Pass Attempts) in the 2022 season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 127.6

Vanderbilt allowed a passer rating of 169.2 (300.0 Pass Attempts) in the 2022 season– 3rd worst in FBS; Average: 130.7

Vanderbilt allowed passes of 40+ yards on 13 of 300 attempts (4%) in the 2022 season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 2%

Vanderbilt has allowed a passer rating of 169.2 (300.0 Pass Attempts) since last season– worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 132.4

Vanderbilt has averaged a sack every 30.1 pass attempts (693 Pass Attempts/23 Sacks) since the 2021 season– 2nd worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.9

UNLV Rebels Defensive Stats & Trends

UNLV has tackled opponents for a loss on just 4 of 40 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) this season– tied for 23rd-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.

UNLV opponents averaged 6.8 Passing Attempts per TD (41 Pass Attempts/6 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– tied for 4th best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 3.9

UNLV has sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (1/31) this season– tied for 38th-worst in FBS; Average: 6%

UNLV has allowed 409.0 yards from scrimmage per game this season– 33rd-worst in FBS; Average: 337.3

UNLV has allowed a Completion Pct of 68% (56 completions/82 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go since the 2021 season– 4th worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 59%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.