- Virginia is a -10.5 point favorite vs. North Carolina
- Virginia vs. North Carolina Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
- TV Channel: ACCN
Virginia (6-1) visit Kenan Stadium to take on North Carolina (2-4) on Oct. 25 in Chapel Hill, NC. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.
Virginia is a betting favorite in Week 9, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-110).
The Virginia vs. North Carolina Over/Under is 51.5 total points.
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Virginia vs. North Carolina Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Virginia | -10.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -400 |
| North Carolina | +10.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | 310 |
Virginia vs North Carolina Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Virginia will win this game with 74.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Virginia and North Carolina, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Virginia vs North Carolina Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Virginia will cover the spread with 56.1% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Virginia Best Bets Today
- Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+4.90 Units / 7% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 61% ROI)
- Virginia have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.61 Units / 18% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 11 games (+0.95 Units / 4% ROI)
North Carolina Best Bets Today
- North Carolina has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.86 Units / 57% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.10 Units / 7% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+0.70 Units / 10% ROI)
Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Virginia is 5-2 against the spread this college football season (+2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI).
- Virginia is 6-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.2 Units / 10.56% ROI
- Virginia is 5-2 when betting the Over for +2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI
- Virginia is 2-5 when betting the Under for -3.5 Units / -45.45% ROI
North Carolina Against the Spread (ATS) Record
North Carolina iss 3-3 against the spread this college football season (-0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- North Carolina is 2-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -5.67% ROI
- North Carolina is 1-4 when betting the Over for -3.4 Units / -51.52% ROI
- North Carolina is 4-1 when betting the Under for +2.9 Units / 43.94% ROI
Virginia: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina
North Carolina is winless (0-6) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .466
North Carolina was winless (0-4) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .459
North Carolina is winless (0-6) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .420
North Carolina was winless (0-4) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .414
North Carolina: Keys to the Game vs. Virginia
North Carolina have thrown 0 TDs on 36 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter this season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.4
North Carolina’s WRs has 169 receptions in 18 games (just 9.4 per game) since the 2024 season — worst among ACC WRs. Virginia’s defense has allowed 20.2 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.
North Carolina RBs averaged 9.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (452 yards / 48 touches) on 3rd down last season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.6
North Carolina has averaged just 11.0 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-25th-worst among FBS skill players. Virginia’s defense has allowed 11.9 RAC since the 2024 season — T-3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
North Carolina’s RBs has averaged just 4.5 yards after the catch this season — 6th-worst among FBS RBs. Virginia’s defense has allowed just 4.2 RAC to RBs this season — T-6th-best among FBS defenses.
Matchup Notes for Virginia vs. North Carolina
North Carolina have thrown 0 TDs on 36 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter this season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.4
North Carolina’s WRs has 169 receptions in 18 games (just 9.4 per game) since the 2024 season — worst among ACC WRs. Virginia’s defense has allowed 20.2 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.
North Carolina RBs averaged 9.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (452 yards / 48 touches) on 3rd down last season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.6
North Carolina has averaged just 11.0 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-25th-worst among FBS skill players. Virginia’s defense has allowed 11.9 RAC since the 2024 season — T-3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
North Carolina’s RBs has averaged just 4.5 yards after the catch this season — 6th-worst among FBS RBs. Virginia’s defense has allowed just 4.2 RAC to RBs this season — T-6th-best among FBS defenses.
North Carolina is winless (0-6) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .466
North Carolina was winless (0-4) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .459
North Carolina is winless (0-6) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .420
North Carolina was winless (0-4) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .414
Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends
North Carolina is winless (0-6) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .466
North Carolina was winless (0-4) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .459
North Carolina is winless (0-6) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .420
North Carolina was winless (0-4) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .414
North Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends
North Carolina have thrown 0 TDs on 36 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter this season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.4
North Carolina’s WRs has 169 receptions in 18 games (just 9.4 per game) since the 2024 season — worst among ACC WRs. Virginia’s defense has allowed 20.2 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.
North Carolina RBs averaged 9.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (452 yards / 48 touches) on 3rd down last season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.6
North Carolina has averaged just 11.0 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-25th-worst among FBS skill players. Virginia’s defense has allowed 11.9 RAC since the 2024 season — T-3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
North Carolina’s RBs has averaged just 4.5 yards after the catch this season — 6th-worst among FBS RBs. Virginia’s defense has allowed just 4.2 RAC to RBs this season — T-6th-best among FBS defenses.
Virginia Defensive Stats & Trends
North Carolina is winless (0-6) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .466
North Carolina was winless (0-4) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .459
North Carolina is winless (0-6) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .420
North Carolina was winless (0-4) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .414
North Carolina Defensive Stats & Trends
North Carolina have thrown 0 TDs on 36 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter this season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.4
North Carolina’s WRs has 169 receptions in 18 games (just 9.4 per game) since the 2024 season — worst among ACC WRs. Virginia’s defense has allowed 20.2 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.
North Carolina RBs averaged 9.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (452 yards / 48 touches) on 3rd down last season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.6
North Carolina has averaged just 11.0 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-25th-worst among FBS skill players. Virginia’s defense has allowed 11.9 RAC since the 2024 season — T-3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
North Carolina’s RBs has averaged just 4.5 yards after the catch this season — 6th-worst among FBS RBs. Virginia’s defense has allowed just 4.2 RAC to RBs this season — T-6th-best among FBS defenses.
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