Virginia vs Notre Dame Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 12

Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman looks at the scoreboard during the first half of the team's NCAA college football game against Stanford in South Bend, Ind., Saturday, Oct. 15, 2022.
(AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)
  • Notre Dame is a -22.5 point favorite vs. Virginia
  • Virginia vs. Notre Dame Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
  • TV Channel: NBC | PEAC

The Virginia Cavaliers (5-4) visit Notre Dame Stadium to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1) on Nov. 16 in Notre Dame, IN. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

Notre Dame is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -22.5 (-110).

The Virginia vs. Notre Dame Over/Under is 50.5 total points.

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Virginia vs. Notre Dame Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Virginia+22.5 -11050.5 -110+1100
Notre Dame -22.5 -11050.5 -110-2500

Virginia vs Notre Dame Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Notre Dame will win this game with 95.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Virginia and Notre Dame, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Virginia vs Notre Dame Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Virginia will cover the spread with 89.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Virginia has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Virginia have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.70 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 away games (+3.40 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Virginia have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 3 away games (+3.05 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Notre Dame have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Notre Dame has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Notre Dame has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Notre Dame has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.65 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Notre Dame have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.45 Units / 11% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Virginia players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Virginia Player Prop Bets Today

  • Tyler Neville has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Malachi Fields has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Anthony Colandrea has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.10 Units / 110% ROI)
  • Anthony Colandrea has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Kobe Pace has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Notre Dame players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Notre Dame Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Jaden Greathouse has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Riley Leonard has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Jeremiyah Love has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Beaux Collins has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Riley Leonard has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 48% ROI)

Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Virginia is 6-2 against the spread this college football season (+3.8 Units / 38.58% ROI).

  • Virginia is 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.2 Units / 4.91% ROI
  • Virginia is 3-6 when betting the Over for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Virginia is 6-3 when betting the Under for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI

Notre Dame Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Notre Dame is 7-2 against the spread this college football season (+4.8 Units / 47.76% ROI).

  • Notre Dame is 8-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -71.75 Units / -34.61% ROI
  • Notre Dame is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
  • Notre Dame is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Virginia: Keys to the Game vs. Notre Dame

Virginia is 7-8 (.467) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 10th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .671

Virginia is 7-8 (.467) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 30th-worst in FBS; Average: .621

Virginia is 2-10 (.167) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .513

Virginia is 2-6 (.250) when losing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .463

Notre Dame: Keys to the Game vs. Virginia

Notre Dame is 16-1 (.941) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .650

Notre Dame is 16-1 (.941) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: .606

Notre Dame is 13-3 (.812) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-5th-best in FBS; Average: .446

Notre Dame is 18-4 (.818) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– 14th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .676

Matchup Notes for Virginia vs. Notre Dame

Notre Dame’s QBs has thrown for 1,762 passing yards in 9 games (just 195.8 YPG) this season — T-34th-worst among FBS teams. Virginia’s defense has allowed 262.9 passing yards per game this season — 17th-worst among FBS defenses.

Notre Dame’s QBs has thrown for 1,762 passing yards in 9 games (just 195.8 YPG) this season — T-34th-worst among FBS teams. Virginia’s defense has allowed 262.9 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-worst among ACC defenses.

Notre Dame’s offense has thrown for 1,776 passing yards in 9 games (just 197.3 YPG) this season — 35th-worst among FBS offenses. Virginia’s defense has allowed 262.9 passing yards per game this season — 17th-worst among FBS defenses.

Virginia’s RBs have 44.0 receiving yards per game this season — 11th-best among FBS RBs. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed 30.4 receiving yards per game to RBs this season — 33rd-worst among FBS defenses.

Virginia’s RBs has gained 396 yards on 33 receptions (12.0 YPR) this season — 13th-best among FBS RBs. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed 11.0 Yards Per Reception to RBs this season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.

Virginia’s RBs have 44.0 receiving yards per game this season — 11th-best among FBS RBs. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed just 148.6 receiving yards per game this season — 2nd-best among FBS defenses.

Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends

Virginia Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 5.2 receptions (21 Rec/4 TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.1

Virginia Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 5.2 receptions (21 Rec/4 TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.1

Virginia Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 3.4 receptions (47 Rec/14 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.1

Virginia WRs have averaged a touchdown every 3.7 receptions (26 Rec/7 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0

Virginia WRs have averaged a touchdown every 3.7 receptions (26 Rec/7 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

Notre Dame Offensive Stats & Trends

Notre Dame QBs have rushed for 14 TDs this season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams

Notre Dame’s QBs has thrown for 1,762 passing yards in 9 games (just 195.8 YPG) this season — T-34th-worst among FBS teams. Virginia’s defense has allowed 262.9 passing yards per game this season — 17th-worst among FBS defenses.

Notre Dame RBs picked up first downs on 4 receptions last week– most among FBS Teams

Notre Dame’s QBs has thrown for 1,762 passing yards in 9 games (just 195.8 YPG) this season — T-34th-worst among FBS teams. Virginia’s defense has allowed 262.9 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-worst among ACC defenses.

Notre Dame TEs have caught 6 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Virginia Cavaliers Defensive Stats & Trends

Virginia has averaged a sack every 26.2 pass attempts (680 Pass Attempts/26 Sacks) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.0

Virginia has no interceptions (72 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 38.5

Virginia has averaged a sack every 26.2 pass attempts (680 Pass Attempts/26 Sacks) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 14.4

Virginia has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (26/680) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Virginia has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (26/680) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 7%

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Defensive Stats & Trends

Notre Dame opponents has averaged 43.9 Passing Attempts per TD (615 Pass Attempts/14 Passing TDs) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 20.4

Notre Dame has allowed 5 rushing TDs on 327 carries (65.4 Carries Per TD) this season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: 23.4

Notre Dame has allowed opponents to catch just 313 of 605 passes (52% Reception Pct) since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 61%

Notre Dame has allowed 153.7 Passing Yards per game (3,382/22) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 221.0

Notre Dame has allowed a Completion Pct of just 51% (313 completions/615 attempts) since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 61%


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