Virginia vs Pitt Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

Pittsburgh wide receiver Daejon Reynolds (3) tries to make a catch during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Notre Dame Saturday, Oct. 28, 2023, in South Bend, Ind. (AP Photo/Michael Caterina)
(AP Photo/Michael Caterina)
  • Pitt is a -7.5 point favorite vs. Virginia
  • Virginia vs. Pittsburgh Total (Over/Under): 57.5 points
  • TV Channel: ACCN

The Virginia Cavaliers (4-4) visit Acrisure Stadium to take on the Pittsburgh Panthers (7-1) on Nov. 9 in Pittsburgh, PA. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST.

Pitt is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).

The Virginia vs. Pittsburgh Over/Under is 57.5 total points.

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Virginia vs. Pittsburgh Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Virginia+7.5 -11057.5 -110+240
Pittsburgh -7.5 -11057.5 -110-300

Virginia vs Pittsburgh Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Pittsburgh will win this game with 69.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Virginia and Pitt, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Virginia vs Pittsburgh Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Pittsburgh will cover the spread with 60.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Virginia has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Game Total Over in their last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Virginia have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.70 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Virginia have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 9 games (+0.60 Units / 6% ROI)
  • Pittsburgh has hit the Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.05 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Pittsburgh have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+5.00 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Pittsburgh has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+5.00 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Pittsburgh has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+4.00 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Pittsburgh have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Virginia players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Virginia Player Prop Bets Today

  • Tyler Neville has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Anthony Colandrea has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.10 Units / 110% ROI)
  • Malachi Fields has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Anthony Colandrea has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Anthony Colandrea has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Pittsburgh players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pittsburgh Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Konata Mumpfield has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Desmond Reid has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Eli Holstein has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Gavin Bartholomew has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Kenny Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Virginia is 5-2 against the spread this college football season (+2.8 Units / 31.82% ROI).

  • Virginia is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -5.12% ROI
  • Virginia is 3-5 when betting the Over for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI
  • Virginia is 5-3 when betting the Under for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI

Pittsburgh Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Pitt is 6-2 against the spread this college football season (+3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI).

  • Pittsburgh is 7-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.1 Units / 8.48% ROI
  • Pittsburgh is 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Pittsburgh is 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI

Virginia: Keys to the Game vs. Pittsburgh

Virginia is winless (0-4) when not forcing a fumble this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .535

Virginia is 1-10 (.091) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .522

Virginia is 6-8 (.429) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .675

Virginia is 5-12 (.294) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-28th-worst in FBS; Average: .449

Pittsburgh: Keys to the Game vs. Virginia

Pittsburgh is 7-1 (.875) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-8th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .654

Pittsburgh is 7-1 (.875) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– 19th-best in FBS; Average: .671

Pittsburgh is 7-1 (.875) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-9th-best in FBS; Average: .590

Pittsburgh is 5-10 (.333) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-14th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .492

Matchup Notes for Virginia vs. Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh’s TEs has 38 receptions in 8 games (4.8 per game) this season — 5th-best among ACC TEs. Virginia’s defense has allowed 21.0 receptions per game this season — T-3rd-worst among ACC defenses.

Pittsburgh’s TEs has 38 receptions in 8 games (4.8 per game) this season — 5th-best among ACC TEs. Virginia’s defense has allowed 21.0 receptions per game this season — T-21st-worst among FBS defenses.

Pittsburgh’s offense has thrown for 2,329 passing yards in 8 games (291.1 YPG) this season — 17th-best among FBS offenses. Virginia’s defense has allowed 275.1 passing yards per game this season — 9th-worst among FBS defenses.

Virginia’s WRs has 308 receptions in 20 games (15.4 per game) since the 2023 season — T-25th-best among FBS WRs. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed just 11.6 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.

Virginia’s offense has thrown for 2,120 passing yards in 8 games (265.0 YPG) this season — 32nd-best among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 261.9 passing yards per game this season — 4th-worst among ACC defenses.

Virginia’s offense has thrown for 2,120 passing yards in 8 games (265.0 YPG) this season — 32nd-best among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 261.9 passing yards per game this season — 18th-worst among FBS defenses.

Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends

Virginia’s WRs has 308 receptions in 20 games (15.4 per game) since the 2023 season — T-25th-best among FBS WRs. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed just 11.6 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.

Virginia’s offense has thrown for 2,120 passing yards in 8 games (265.0 YPG) this season — 32nd-best among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 261.9 passing yards per game this season — 4th-worst among ACC defenses.

Virginia Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 5.0 receptions (20 Rec/4 TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.1

Virginia’s offense has thrown for 2,120 passing yards in 8 games (265.0 YPG) this season — 32nd-best among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 261.9 passing yards per game this season — 18th-worst among FBS defenses.

Virginia Skill Players have caught 8 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Pittsburgh Offensive Stats & Trends

Pittsburgh’s TEs has 38 receptions in 8 games (4.8 per game) this season — 5th-best among ACC TEs. Virginia’s defense has allowed 21.0 receptions per game this season — T-3rd-worst among ACC defenses.

Pittsburgh RBs have picked up first downs on 5 receptions in the Red Zone this season– most among FBS Teams

Pittsburgh RBs have averaged 9.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (524 yards / 58 touches) on 2nd down this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5

Pittsburgh RBs have caught 4 touchdown passes in the Red Zone this season– T-most among FBS Teams

Pittsburgh’s TEs has 38 receptions in 8 games (4.8 per game) this season — 5th-best among ACC TEs. Virginia’s defense has allowed 21.0 receptions per game this season — T-21st-worst among FBS defenses.

Virginia Cavaliers Defensive Stats & Trends

Virginia has averaged a sack every 28.0 pass attempts (645 Pass Attempts/23 Sacks) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 14.5

Virginia has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (23/645) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 7%

Virginia averaged a sack every 34.3 pass attempts (377 Pass Attempts/11 Sacks) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.8

Virginia has averaged a sack every 28.0 pass attempts (645 Pass Attempts/23 Sacks) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.0

Virginia sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (11/377) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Pittsburgh Panthers Defensive Stats & Trends

Pittsburgh has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 23 of 107 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9%

Pittsburgh has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 23 of 107 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 9%

Pittsburgh allowed passes of 20+ yards on 10 of 47 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9%

Pittsburgh has allowed first downs on 33% of rush attempts on 3rd and short this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

Pittsburgh allowed passes of 20+ yards on 10 of 47 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: 9%


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About the Author

Nick Hennion

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Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.