Virginia Tech vs Duke Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 11, 2022, 2:50 PM
  • Duke (6-3) are -9.5 point favorites vs Virginia Tech (2-7)
  • Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
  • Watch the game on RSN

The Virginia Tech Hokies (3-8) visit Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium to take on the Duke Blue Devils (7-4) on Nov. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST in Durham.

are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Virginia Tech vs. Duke is total points.

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Virginia Tech vs. Duke Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Virginia Tech
Duke

Virginia Tech vs Duke Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Duke will win this game with 64.8% confidence.

Virginia Tech vs Duke Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Duke will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Virginia Tech and Duke, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Virginia Tech Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Virginia Tech players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Grant Wells has hit the TD Passes Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Grant Wells has hit the Passing Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.60 Units / 42% ROI)

Best Duke Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Duke players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Riley Leonard has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Jordan Moore has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Riley Leonard has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Jalon Calhoun has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.25 Units / 96% ROI)
  • Virginia Tech has hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Virginia Tech has hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.00 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Virginia Tech have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.96 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Virginia Tech have covered the 1H Spread in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.90 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Virginia Tech has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.90 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.85 Units / 71% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+6.45 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+5.25 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.00 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Duke have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)

Virginia Tech Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Virginia Tech has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Virginia Tech is 1-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.05 Units / -76.67% ROI
  • Virginia Tech is 3-6 when betting the Over for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Virginia Tech is 6-3 when betting the Under for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI

Duke Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Duke has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Duke is 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.25 Units / 35.47% ROI
  • Duke is 3-4 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -15.91% ROI
  • Duke is 4-3 when betting the Under for +0.7 Units / 7.95% ROI

Virginia Tech: Keys to the Game vs. Duke

Virginia Tech is 2-10 (.167) when allowing 200 or more passing yards — tied for 5th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .465

Virginia Tech is 3-11 (.214) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays — 13th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .435

Virginia Tech is 1-11 (.083) when allowing 22 or more points — tied for 9th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .301

Virginia Tech is 3-11 (.214) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times — tied for 11th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .417

Duke: Keys to the Game vs. Virginia Tech

Duke is 3-16 (.158) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2020 season– 3rd-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .506

Duke is 2-17 (.100) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2020 season– 4th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .361

Duke is 3-18 (.143) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2020 season– 4th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .408

Duke is 2-16 (.111) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2020 season– 4th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .360

Matchup Notes for Virginia Tech vs. Duke

Duke have just 163.4 receiving yards per game this season — third-worst among Power 5 skill players. Virginia Tech’s defense has allowed 235.2 receiving yards per game this season — fifth-worst among ACC defenses.

Duke has 7 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — tied for fewest among Power 5 skill players. Virginia Tech’s defense has allowed 16 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — tied for third-fewest among ACC defenses.

Virginia Tech’s TEs has been targeted 86 times this season — second-most among FBS TEs. Duke’s defense has allowed 2,116 receiving yards this season — second-most among ACC defenses.

Virginia Tech’s TEs has 52 receptions in 9 games (5.8 per game) this season — fifth-best among P5 TEs. Duke’s defense has allowed 23.1 receptions per game this season — worst among ACC defenses.

Virginia Tech’s TEs has been targeted 86 times this season — second-most among P5 TEs. Duke’s defense has allowed 2,116 receiving yards this season — second-most among ACC defenses.

Virginia Tech Offensive Stats & Trends

Virginia Tech WRs have averaged 23.2 yards per reception (116 yards/5 catches) on 3rd and short since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.8

Virginia Tech TEs have been targeted 24 times in the 4th quarter this season– most among FBS Teams

Virginia Tech WRs have no touchdowns on 28 receptions in close and late situations since last season– tied for worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.2

Virginia Tech TEs have been targeted 5.8 times per game (52/9) in the 2nd half this season– highest among Power 5 Teams; Average: 2.7

Virginia Tech WRs have no touchdowns on 28 receptions in close and late situations since last season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.5

Duke Offensive Stats & Trends

Duke WRs have averaged a touchdown every 6.5 receptions (13 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone since last season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 2.0

Duke WRs have averaged a touchdown every 29.7 receptions (267 Rec/9 TDs) since last season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.8

Duke WRs have averaged a touchdown every 29.7 receptions (267 Rec/9 TDs) since last season– worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.9

Duke WRs have averaged a touchdown every 6.5 receptions (13 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone since last season– 3rd worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0

Duke Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 3.3 receptions (23 Rec/7 TDs) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for 2nd worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 2.1

Virginia Tech Hokies Defensive Stats & Trends

Virginia Tech has no interceptions and 16 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 9.3

Virginia Tech has intercepted 3 of 308 attempts (102.7 pass attempts per int.) this season– 5th worst in FBS; Average: 37.6

Virginia Tech has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 19 of 53 carries (36%) on 3rd and long since last season– worst in FBS; Average: 17%

Virginia Tech has sacked opposing QBs just once on 64 pass attempts in the Red Zone since last season– 5th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16.2

Virginia Tech has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 19 of 53 carries (36%) on 3rd and long since last season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%

Duke Blue Devils Defensive Stats & Trends

Duke has allowed 49.0 receiving yards per game (981/20) to RBs since last season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 26.6

Duke has allowed 306.5 Passing Yards per game (6,130/20) since last season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 240.1

Duke has allowed a passer rating of 148.8 (705.0 Pass Attempts) since last season– 5th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 130.1

Duke has allowed 88 receptions for 20+ yards since last season– 2nd fewest in FBS

Duke has allowed a Completion Pct of just 46% (11 completions/24 attempts) on 3rd and short since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 63%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.