- Tennessee is a -28 point favorite vs Virginia
- Total (Over/Under): 57.5 points
- Watch the game on ABC
The Virginia Cavaliers visit Nissan Stadium to take on the Tennessee Volunteers on Sep. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT in Nashville.
– is a betting favorite in Week 1, with the spread sitting at ().
The Virginia vs. Tennessee Over/Under is total points.
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Virginia vs. Tennessee Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 1
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Virginia | |||
| Tennessee |
Virginia vs Tennessee Prediction for Week 1
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Tennessee will win this game with 94.8% confidence.
Virginia vs Tennessee Spread Prediction for Week 1
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Tennessee will cover the spread with 63.9% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Virginia and Tennessee, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Virginia Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Virginia players for Week 1, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Perris Jones has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Best Tennessee Player Prop Best Bets Today
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Tennessee players for Week 1, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jabari Small has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Bru McCoy has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.20 Units / 110% ROI)
Virginia Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Virginia has hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 64% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+3.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+3.30 Units / 11% ROI)
Tennessee Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Tennessee has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+12.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- Tennessee has hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+7.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- Tennessee has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.94 Units / 27% ROI)
- Tennessee has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.90 Units / 70% ROI)
- Tennessee have covered the 1H Spread in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.05 Units / 25% ROI)
Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Virginia went against the spread last college football season ( Units / ROI).
- Virginia went 2-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.8 Units / -41.74% ROI
- Virginia went 2-7 when betting the Over for -5.7 Units / -51.82% ROI
- Virginia went 7-2 when betting the Under for +4.8 Units / 43.64% ROI
Tennessee Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Tennessee went against the spread last college football season ( Units / ROI).
- Tennessee went 8-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.6 Units / -15.65% ROI
- Tennessee went 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Tennessee went 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
Virginia: Keys to the Game vs. Tennessee
Virginia is 5-12 (.278) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season– tied for 15th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .420
Virginia was winless (0-5) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays in the 2022 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .439
Virginia is 3-7 (.273) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2021 season– tied for 15th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .515
Virginia was winless (0-5) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays in the 2022 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .427
Tennessee: Keys to the Game vs. Virginia
#12 Tennessee was 5-1 (.714) when they have committed less than 60 yards in penalties in the 2022 season– tied for 4th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .376
#12 Tennessee is 12-3 (.750) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2021 season– 7th-best in FBS; Average: .449
#12 Tennessee was undefeated (9-0) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities in the 2022 season– tied for best in FBS; Average: .562
#12 Tennessee is 9-3 (.562) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2021 season– 13th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .389
Matchup Notes for Virginia vs. Tennessee
Ramel Keyton (TEN) gained 562 yards on 31 receptions (18.1 YPR) in the 2022 season — third-best of Qualified SEC Skill Playerss. Virginia’s defense allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception in the 2022 season — second-best among ACC defenses.
Ramel Keyton (TEN) gained 20 or more yards on 25.8% of 31 receptions in the 2022 season — ninth-best of Qualified SEC Wide Receiverss. Virginia’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 13.1% of receptions in the 2022 season — second-worst among ACC defenses.
Tennessee’s offense threw for 4,239 passing yards in 13 games (326.1 YPG) in the 2022 season — fifth-best among FBS offenses. Virginia’s defense allowed just 221.1 passing yards per game in the 2022 season — third-best among ACC defenses.
Mike Hollins (UVA) has averaged 8.2 yards after the catch since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-best of Qualified ACC Running Backss. Tennessee’s defense has allowed just 6.3 RAC to RBs since the 2021 season — tied for seventh-best among FBS defenses.
Mike Hollins (UVA) gained 114 yards after catch in the 2022 season — eighth-most of Qualified ACC Running Backss. Tennessee’s defense allowed 3,760 yards after catch in the 2022 season — second-most among SEC defenses.
Virginia’s WRs averaged 25.9 targets per game in the 2022 season — third-highest among ACC WRs. Tennessee’s defense allowed 17.3 receptions per game to WRs in the 2022 season — second-worst among FBS defenses.
Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends
Virginia WRs averaged a touchdown every 26.6 receptions (133 Rec/5 TDs) in the 2022 season– 5th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.0
Virginia WRs averaged a touchdown every 26.6 receptions (133 Rec/5 TDs) in the 2022 season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.8
Virginia Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 26.4 receptions (185 Rec/7 TDs) in the 2022 season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.5
Virginia Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 26.4 receptions (185 Rec/7 TDs) in the 2022 season– 6th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.6
Virginia’s WRs averaged 25.9 targets per game in the 2022 season — third-highest among ACC WRs. Tennessee’s defense allowed 17.3 receptions per game to WRs in the 2022 season — second-worst among FBS defenses.
Tennessee Offensive Stats & Trends
Tennessee’s offense threw for 4,239 passing yards in 13 games (326.1 YPG) in the 2022 season — fifth-best among FBS offenses. Virginia’s defense allowed just 221.1 passing yards per game in the 2022 season — third-best among ACC defenses.
#12 Tennessee QBs have fumbled 10 times in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season– most among FBS Teams
Tennessee gained 4,239 yards on 290 receptions (14.6 YPR) in the 2022 season — tied for fifth-best among FBS skill players. Virginia’s defense allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception in the 2022 season — tied for 14th-best among FBS defenses.
Tennessee’s offense has thrown for 7,581 passing yards in 26 games (291.6 YPG) since the 2021 season — 13th-best among FBS offenses. Virginia’s defense has allowed just 236.5 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — fifth-best among ACC defenses.
Tennessee’s WRs gained 3,684 yards on 237 receptions (15.5 YPR) in the 2022 season — tied for 14th-best among FBS WRs. Virginia’s defense allowed just 10.9 Yards Per Reception to WRs in the 2022 season — third-best among FBS defenses.
Virginia Cavaliers Defensive Stats & Trends
Virginia has allowed a Completion Pct of just 39% (37 completions/94 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 54%
Virginia has tackled opponents for a loss on just 100 of 874 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) since the 2021 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.
Virginia has allowed opponents to catch just 37 of 94 passes (39% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 54%
Virginia allowed a Completion Pct of just 36% (10 completions/28 attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– best in FBS; Average: 54%
Virginia has allowed opponents to catch just 37 of 94 passes (39% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 54%
Tennessee Volunteers Defensive Stats & Trends
#12 Tennessee has allowed 332 first down receptions since the 2021 season– most among Power 5 Teams
#12 Tennessee has allowed 332 first down receptions since the 2021 season– tied for most in FBS
#12 Tennessee opponents averaged 25.5 completions per game (332 / 13) in the 2022 season– worst in FBS; Average: 19.1
#12 Tennessee’s opponents attempted 40.5 passes per game in the 2022 season– highest in FBS; Average: 31.7
#12 Tennessee has allowed 632 completions since the 2021 season– most in FBS
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