Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 5

• The New Mexico State Aggies are a -1.5 point favorite vs. the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
• Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State Total (Over/Under): 52.5 points
• TV Channel: CBSN

Western Kentucky (1-3) visit Aggie Memorial Stadium to take on New Mexico State (1-3) on Oct. 1 in Las Cruces, NM. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 pm.

The New Mexico State Aggies are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-135).

The Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State Over/Under is 52.5 total points.

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Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts New Mexico State will win this game with 53.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and the New Mexico State Aggies, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts New Mexico State will cover the spread with 52.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Western Kentucky Best Bets Today

• Western Kentucky have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
• Western Kentucky has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.40 Units / 23% ROI)
• Western Kentucky has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 8 away games (+1.85 Units / 22% ROI)
• Western Kentucky has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.15 Units / 8% ROI)
• Western Kentucky has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.10 Units / 17% ROI)

New Mexico State Best Bets Today

• New Mexico State has hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.20 Units / 16% ROI)
• New Mexico State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.00 Units / 30% ROI)
• New Mexico State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.55 Units / 22% ROI)
• New Mexico State has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.52 Units / 12% ROI)
• New Mexico State have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)

Western Kentucky Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).

• Western Kentucky is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
• Western Kentucky is 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
• Western Kentucky is 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI

New Mexico State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

New Mexico State Aggies is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.2 Units / -4.49% ROI).

• New Mexico State is 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -6.25% ROI
• New Mexico State is 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.52% ROI
• New Mexico State is 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.18 Units / -4.11% ROI

Western Kentucky: Keys to the Game vs. New Mexico State

Western Kentucky was undefeated (8-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .604

Western Kentucky was undefeated (8-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .570

Western Kentucky was 7-3 (.700) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .526

Western Kentucky was 7-3 (.700) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-37th-best in FBS; Average: .575

New Mexico State: Keys to the Game vs. Western Kentucky

New Mexico State is 1-9 (.100) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2024 season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: .463

New Mexico State was winless (0-6) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .454

New Mexico State is 2-9 (.182) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2024 season– 12th-worst in FBS; Average: .461

New Mexico State is 1-9 (.100) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2024 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .413

Matchup Notes for Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State

New Mexico State’s RBs had just 0.0 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-worst among FBS RBs. Western Kentucky’s defense allowed just 0.9 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-3rd-best among NonP5 defenses.

New Mexico State’s RBs rushed for 927 yards on 240 carries (just 3.9 YPC) last season — T-6th-worst among FBS RBs. Western Kentucky’s defense allowed 4.9 YPC last season — T-19th-worst among FBS defenses.

New Mexico State’s RBs had just 0.0 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-worst among FBS RBs. Western Kentucky’s defense allowed just 0.9 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-11th-best among FBS defenses.

Western Kentucky’s RBs averaged 5.8 targets per game last season — T-26th-highest among FBS RBs. New Mexico State’s defense allowed 4.7 receptions per game to RBs last season — T-5th-worst among FBS defenses.

Western Kentucky’s QBs threw for 3,494 passing yards in 13 games (268.8 YPG) last season — 22nd-best among FBS teams. New Mexico State’s defense allowed 236.8 passing yards per game last season — 35th-worst among FBS defenses.

Western Kentucky’s WRs has 493 receptions in 31 games (15.9 per game) since the 2024 season — 14th-best among FBS WRs. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 13.6 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.

Western Kentucky Offensive Stats & Trends

Western Kentucky threw for 6 TDs last week– T-2nd-most among FBS Offenses

Western Kentucky caught 6 touchdown passes last week– T-2nd-most among FBS Offenses

Western Kentucky Skill Players caught 6 touchdown passes last week– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Western Kentucky gained 40+ yards on 3 of their 24 receptions (12%) last week– T-7th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 4%

Western Kentucky’s RBs averaged 5.8 targets per game last season — T-26th-highest among FBS RBs. New Mexico State’s defense allowed 4.7 receptions per game to RBs last season — T-5th-worst among FBS defenses.

New Mexico State Offensive Stats & Trends

New Mexico State have caught 6 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter this season– most among FBS Offenses

New Mexico State Skill Players have caught 6 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter this season– most among FBS Teams

New Mexico State Skill Players have 7 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

New Mexico State WRs have caught 5 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter this season– T-most among FBS Teams

New Mexico State WRs have 7 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– T-most among FBS Teams

Western Kentucky Defensive Stats & Trends

Western Kentucky has allowed a Completion Pct of just 33% (2 completions/6 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: 60%

Western Kentucky has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 37 of their 607 carries (6%) since the 2024 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 4%

Western Kentucky has one interception and 10 TD passes allowed this season– T-8th-worst in FBS; Average: 1.7

Western Kentucky has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 37 of their 607 carries (6%) since the 2024 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 3%

Western Kentucky allowed 9 rushing TDs on 78 carries (8.7 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.5

New Mexico State Defensive Stats & Trends

New Mexico State allowed passes of 40+ yards on 19 of 379 attempts (5%) last season– worst in FBS; Average: 2%

New Mexico State forced 2 fumbles on 459 carries (229.5 Carries Per Fumble) last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 45.7

New Mexico State forced 2 fumbles on 459 carries (229.5 Carries Per Fumble) last season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 43.4

New Mexico State allowed passes of 40+ yards on 19 of 379 attempts (5%) last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2%

New Mexico State allowed 5 rushing TDs last week– T-2nd-most in FBS

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