Western Michigan vs Michigan Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 1

• Michigan Wolverines is a -27.5 point favorite vs. Western Michigan Broncos
• Western Michigan vs. Michigan Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
• TV Channel: NBC

Western Michigan (0-0) visit Michigan Stadium to take on Michigan (0-0) on Sep. 5 in Ann Arbor, MI. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 pm.

The Michigan Wolverines are betting favorites in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -27.5 (-115).

The Western Michigan vs. Michigan Over/Under is 48.5 total points.

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Western Michigan vs. Michigan Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Western Michigan vs Michigan Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Michigan will win this game with 81.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Western Michigan Broncos and Michigan Wolverines, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Western Michigan vs Michigan Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Western Michigan will cover the spread with 55.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Western Michigan Best Bets Today

• Western Michigan has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games (+11.90 Units / 47% ROI)
• Western Michigan have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.70 Units / 44% ROI)
• Western Michigan has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.15 Units / 21% ROI)
• Western Michigan has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.50 Units / 30% ROI)
• Western Michigan have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.35 Units / 29% ROI)

Michigan Best Bets Today

• Michigan has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+6.95 Units / 22% ROI)
• Michigan has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.00 Units / 5% ROI)
• Michigan has hit the Game Total Under in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)
• Michigan has hit the Team Total Under in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 88% ROI)
• Michigan has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+4.00 Units / 6% ROI)

Western Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan

Western Michigan was 1-3 (.250) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-23rd-worst in FBS; Average: .460

Western Michigan was 3-7 (.300) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-37th-worst in FBS; Average: .454

Western Michigan was 2-6 (.250) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-29th-worst in FBS; Average: .420

Western Michigan was 1-3 (.250) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-14th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .424

Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. Western Michigan

Michigan was undefeated (7-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times in the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .420

Michigan was 1-5 (.167) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season– T-9th-worst in FBS; Average: .479

Michigan was undefeated (7-0) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times in the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .438

Michigan was 1-5 (.167) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season– T-5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .515

Matchup Notes for Western Michigan vs. Michigan

Michigan’s offense threw for 2,428 passing yards in 13 games (just 186.8 YPG) last season — 31st-worst among FBS offenses. Western Michigan’s defense allowed just 179.9 passing yards per game last season — 19th-best among FBS defenses.

Michigan’s QBs threw for 2,428 passing yards in 13 games (just 186.8 YPG) last season — 32nd-worst among FBS teams. Western Michigan’s defense allowed just 179.9 passing yards per game last season — 19th-best among FBS defenses.

Michigan’s TEs had 56 receptions in 13 games (4.3 per game) last season — 5th-best among Big Ten TEs. Western Michigan’s defense allowed just 15.4 receptions per game last season — 12th-best among FBS defenses.

Western Michigan gained 1,939 yards on 185 receptions (just 10.5 YPR) last season — T-18th-worst among FBS skill players. Michigan’s defense allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception last season — T-7th-best among FBS defenses.

Western Michigan gained 1,939 yards on 185 receptions (just 10.5 YPR) last season — T-18th-worst among FBS skill players. Michigan’s defense allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception last season — 3rd-best among Big Ten defenses.

Western Michigan’s RBs averaged just 5.1 yards after the catch last season — 7th-worst among FBS RBs. Michigan’s defense allowed just 9.5 RAC last season — 3rd-best among P5 defenses.

Western Michigan Offensive Stats & Trends

Western Michigan gained 1,939 yards on 185 receptions (just 10.5 YPR) last season — T-18th-worst among FBS skill players. Michigan’s defense allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception last season — T-7th-best among FBS defenses.

Western Michigan gained 1,939 yards on 185 receptions (just 10.5 YPR) last season — T-18th-worst among FBS skill players. Michigan’s defense allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception last season — 3rd-best among Big Ten defenses.

Western Michigan’s RBs averaged just 5.1 yards after the catch last season — 7th-worst among FBS RBs. Michigan’s defense allowed just 9.5 RAC last season — 3rd-best among P5 defenses.

Western Michigan’s RBs averaged just 5.1 yards after the catch last season — 7th-worst among FBS RBs. Michigan’s defense allowed just 9.5 RAC last season — 5th-best among FBS defenses.

Western Michigan WRs averaged a touchdown every 28.2 receptions (113 Rec/4 TDs) last season– 6th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4

Michigan Offensive Stats & Trends

Michigan Skill Players averaged just 8.8 yards per reception (1,678 yards/190 catches) last season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.6

Michigan Skill Players averaged just 8.8 yards per reception (1,678 yards/190 catches) last season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.1

Michigan WRs averaged just 8.7 yards per reception (401 yards/46 catches) with 7-10 yards to go last season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.9

Michigan WRs averaged just 7.8 yards per reception (372 yards/48 catches) in the 1st half last season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 12.9

Michigan’s offense threw for 2,428 passing yards in 13 games (just 186.8 YPG) last season — 31st-worst among FBS offenses. Western Michigan’s defense allowed just 179.9 passing yards per game last season — 19th-best among FBS defenses.

Western Michigan Defensive Stats & Trends

Western Michigan sacked opposing QBs on 11% of pass attempts (43/387) last season– T-2nd-best in FBS; Average: 7%

Western Michigan sacked opposing QBs on 11% of pass attempts (43/387) last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Western Michigan tackled opponents for a loss on just 65 of 500 rushing attempts (13% TFL%) last season– 29th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.

Western Michigan has allowed less than 300 passing yards in each of their last 15 games — the South Carolina Gamecocks have the longest active streak at 28.

Western Michigan tackled opponents for a loss on just 5 of 66 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– 9th-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

Michigan Defensive Stats & Trends

Michigan allowed passes of 20+ yards on 13 of 61 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long last season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9%

Michigan opponents averaged 51.6 Passing Attempts per TD (413 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.2

Michigan allowed 2.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (228 yards / 100 touches) in the Red Zone last season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: 3.7

Michigan tackled opponents for a loss on 18 of 72 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

Michigan opponents averaged 51.6 Passing Attempts per TD (413 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 20.1

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