Wisconsin vs Notre Dame Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 1

• Notre Dame Fighting Irish is a -20.5 point favorite vs. Wisconsin Badgers
• Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
• TV Channel: NBC | PEAC

Wisconsin (0-0) visit Lambeau Field to take on Notre Dame (0-0) on Sep. 6 in Green Bay, WI. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 pm.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are betting favorites in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -20.5 (-110).

The Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame Over/Under is 47.5 total points.

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Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Wisconsin vs Notre Dame Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Notre Dame will win this game with 87.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Wisconsin Badgers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Wisconsin vs Notre Dame Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Notre Dame will cover the spread with 58.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Wisconsin Best Bets Today

• Wisconsin has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 11 of their last 12 games (+9.85 Units / 72% ROI)
• Wisconsin has hit the Game Total Under in their last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 91% ROI)
• Wisconsin has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.30 Units / 38% ROI)
• Wisconsin has hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 4 games (+3.80 Units / 87% ROI)
• Wisconsin have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)

Notre Dame Best Bets Today

• Notre Dame has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 3% ROI)
• Notre Dame has hit the Moneyline in their last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 5% ROI)
• Notre Dame has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.90 Units / 10% ROI)
• Notre Dame has hit the Team Total Over in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 84% ROI)
• Notre Dame have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 3 games (+3.15 Units / 95% ROI)

Wisconsin: Keys to the Game vs. Notre Dame

Wisconsin was winless (0-5) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .498

Wisconsin was 1-7 (.125) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .500

Wisconsin was winless (0-5) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .481

Wisconsin was 1-6 (.143) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– 9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .451

Notre Dame: Keys to the Game vs. Wisconsin

Notre Dame was 14-1 (.933) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .645

Notre Dame was undefeated (10-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .659

Notre Dame was undefeated (10-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .628

Notre Dame was undefeated (11-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .688

Matchup Notes for Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame

Notre Dame’s RBs had 22 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone last season — 5th-most among FBS RBs. Wisconsin’s defense allowed 12 rushing TDs last season — T-4th-fewest among Big Ten defenses.

Notre Dame’s RBs had 34 rushing touchdowns last season — 2nd-most among FBS RBs. Wisconsin’s defense allowed 12 rushing TDs last season — T-4th-fewest among Big Ten defenses.

Notre Dame’s RBs had 3 rushing touchdowns per game last season — 2nd-best among FBS RBs. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed just 1.0 rushing touchdowns per game last season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.

Wisconsin’s RBs had 0 rushing touchdowns per game last season — T-3rd-worst among FBS RBs. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed just 0.7 rushing touchdowns per game last season — T-7th-best among FBS defenses.

Wisconsin’s TEs has 81 receptions in 24 games (just 3.4 per game) since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among Big Ten TEs. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed just 16.6 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-18th-best among FBS defenses.

Wisconsin’s WRs has 232 receptions in 24 games (just 9.7 per game) since the 2024 season — T-18th-worst among FBS WRs. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed just 10.4 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — T-14th-best among FBS defenses.

Wisconsin Offensive Stats & Trends

Wisconsin Skill Players averaged 21.5 yards per reception (86 yards/4 catches) on 3rd and short last season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 8.5

Wisconsin WRs averaged a touchdown every 22.5 receptions (90 Rec/4 TDs) last season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 9.9

Wisconsin Skill Players averaged just 13.1 receptions per game (157/12) last season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 18.8

Wisconsin Skill Players averaged 18.8 yards per reception (245 yards/13 catches) in short yardage situations last season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 9.9

Wisconsin Skill Players were targeted 263 times last season– fewest among Big Ten Teams

Notre Dame Offensive Stats & Trends

Notre Dame Skill Players averaged 17.5 yards per reception (1,502 yards/86 catches) on 1st down last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.2

Notre Dame RBs averaged 196.7 rushing yards per game (2,360/12) last season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 123.3

Notre Dame Skill Players averaged 17.5 yards per reception (1,502 yards/86 catches) on 1st down last season– 6th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.2

Notre Dame TEs averaged 19.7 yards per reception (354 yards/18 catches) on 1st down last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.6

Notre Dame completed passes for 20+ yards on 50 of their 321 total passing attempts (16%) last season– T-3rd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 10%

Wisconsin Defensive Stats & Trends

Wisconsin intercepted 4 of 323 attempts (80.8 pass attempts per int.) last season– 2nd-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 36.1

Wisconsin did not record a sack (39 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1

Wisconsin allowed opponents to catch 17 of 22 passes (77% Reception Pct) in close and late situations last season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 60%

Wisconsin tackled opponents for a loss on just 44 of 428 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) last season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 16%.

Wisconsin intercepted 4 of 323 attempts (80.8 pass attempts per int.) last season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 34.9

Notre Dame Defensive Stats & Trends

Notre Dame opponents averaged 46.4 Passing Attempts per TD (371 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 20.1

Notre Dame allowed a Completion Pct of just 53% (235 completions/447 attempts) last season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 61%

Notre Dame allowed 8 rushing TDs on 402 carries (50.2 Carries Per TD) last season– 7th-best in FBS; Average: 24

Notre Dame allowed opponents to catch just 11 of 32 passes (34% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone last season– best in FBS; Average: 55%

Notre Dame did not tackle opponents for a loss on any of 46 rushing attempts on 3rd and short last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10%.

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