Wisconsin vs Penn State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 4

• The Penn State Nittany Lions are a -10.5 point favorite vs. the Wisconsin Badgers
• Wisconsin vs. Penn State Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points
• TV Channel: PEAC

Wisconsin (2-1) visit West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium to take on Penn State (3-0) on Sep. 26 in University Park, PA. Kickoff is scheduled for 5:00 pm.

The Penn State Nittany Lions are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (+100).

The Wisconsin vs. Penn State Over/Under is 45.5 total points.

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Wisconsin vs. Penn State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Wisconsin vs Penn State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Penn State will win this game with 68.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Wisconsin Badgers and the Penn State Nittany Lions, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Wisconsin vs Penn State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Penn State will cover the spread with 63.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Wisconsin Best Bets Today

• Wisconsin has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.85 Units / 57% ROI)
• Wisconsin has hit the 1H Game Total Under in their last 5 away games (+5.05 Units / 93% ROI)
• Wisconsin have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 52% ROI)
• Wisconsin have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• Wisconsin has hit the Team Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.70 Units / 12% ROI)

Penn State Best Bets Today

• Penn State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+3.00 Units / 0% ROI)
• Penn State has hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• Penn State have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
• Penn State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• Penn State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)

Wisconsin Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Wisconsin Badgers is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

• Wisconsin is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
• Wisconsin is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 26.87% ROI
• Wisconsin is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.15 Units / -35.38% ROI

Penn State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Penn State Nittany Lions is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.44% ROI).

• Penn State is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 4.65% ROI
• Penn State is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
• Penn State is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

Wisconsin: Keys to the Game vs. Penn State

Wisconsin was winless (0-5) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .498

Wisconsin was winless (0-5) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .481

Wisconsin was 1-6 (.143) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– 9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .451

Wisconsin is 4-5 (.444) when rushing more than 30 times this season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .672

Penn State: Keys to the Game vs. Wisconsin

Penn State was 7-1 (.875) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .468

Penn State was 7-1 (.875) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-2nd-best in FBS; Average: .429

Penn State is 1-5 (.167) when throwing at least 1 interception this season– T-10th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .436

Penn State was 8-1 (.889) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game last season– T-4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .631

Matchup Notes for Wisconsin vs. Penn State

Penn State’s WRs has 156 receptions in 16 games (just 9.8 per game) since the 2024 season — 4th-worst among Big Ten WRs. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed 19.5 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-4th-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Penn State’s WRs has averaged 13.9 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 5th-best among Big Ten WRs. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed just 8.0 RAC to TEs since the 2024 season — 4th-best among FBS defenses.

Penn State’s TEs has averaged 7.0 targets per game since the 2024 season — 3rd-highest among Big Ten TEs. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed 3.9 receptions per game to TEs since the 2024 season — T-17th-worst among FBS defenses.

Wisconsin’s WRs gained 1,001 yards on 90 receptions (just 11.1 YPR) last season — T-4th-worst among Power 5 WRs. Penn State’s defense allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception last season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.

Wisconsin’s QBs threw for 1,613 passing yards in 12 games (just 134.4 YPG) last season — 7th-worst among FBS teams. Penn State’s defense allowed just 184.2 passing yards per game last season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.

Wisconsin’s WRs gained 1,001 yards on 90 receptions (just 11.1 YPR) last season — T-2nd-worst among Big Ten WRs. Penn State’s defense allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception last season — T-5th-best among Big Ten defenses.

Wisconsin Offensive Stats & Trends

Wisconsin Skill Players averaged 21.5 yards per reception (86 yards/4 catches) on 3rd and short last season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 8.5

Wisconsin WRs have averaged a touchdown every 22.5 receptions (90 Rec/4 TDs) this season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 9.9

Wisconsin WRs averaged 24.7 yards per reception (222 yards/9 catches) in short yardage situations last season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.7

Wisconsin Skill Players averaged 18.8 yards per reception (245 yards/13 catches) in short yardage situations last season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 9.9

Wisconsin WRs have averaged just 7.5 receptions per game (90/12) this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.6

Penn State Offensive Stats & Trends

Penn State TEs averaged 7.9 receptions per game (127/16) last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.7

Penn State TEs had 6 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Penn State TEs averaged 7.9 receptions per game (127/16) last season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.4

Penn State TEs had 127 receptions last season– most among Power Conference Teams

Penn State TEs were targeted 169 times last season– most among Power Conference Teams

Wisconsin Defensive Stats & Trends

Wisconsin intercepted 4 of 323 attempts (80.8 pass attempts per int.) last season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 34.9

Wisconsin did not record a sack (39 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1

Wisconsin tackled opponents for a loss on just 44 of 428 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) last season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

Wisconsin did not record a sack (39 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.2

Wisconsin intercepted 4 of 323 attempts (80.8 pass attempts per int.) last season– 2nd-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 36.1

Penn State Defensive Stats & Trends

Penn State sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (50/340) in the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 8%

Penn State allowed 10 rushing TDs on 534 carries (53.4 Carries Per TD) last season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 23.2

Penn State’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 19% of PATs this season– highest in the Big Ten; Average: 6%

Penn State sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (50/340) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 7%

Penn State allowed 7 rushing TDs on 58 carries (8.3 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.8

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