- The Cowboys are -4.5 point favorites vs the Commanders
- Total (Over/Under): 50 points
- Watch this game on FOX
The Washington Commanders (0-1-0) visit AT&T Stadium to take on the Dallas Cowboys (0-1-0) on Sep. 20. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 pm in Arlington, TX.
The Cowboys are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-105).
The Commanders vs. Cowboys Over/Under is 50 total points for the game.
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Commanders vs. Cowboys Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Commanders | +4.5 -125 | 50 -108 | +180 |
| Cowboys | -4.5 -105 | 50 -120 | -220 |
Commanders vs. Cowboys Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Commanders will win this game with 50.1% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Commanders vs Cowboys Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Commanders will cover the spread with 51.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Commanders players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Commanders Player Prop Bets Today
- Jaylin Lane has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.50 Units / 58% ROI)
- Dyami Brown has hit the Receptions Under in his last 7 games (+7.25 Units / 80% ROI)
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jayden Daniels has hit the Completions Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 90% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Cowboys players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cowboys Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Javonte Williams has hit the Longest Reception Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jake Ferguson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- KaVontae Turpin has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jake Ferguson has hit the Longest Reception Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- George Pickens has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.80 Units / 58% ROI)
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Cowboys vs Commanders
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | -175 |
| CeeDee Lamb | +105 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | +110 |
| George Pickens | +135 |
| Jayden Daniels | +195 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Cowboys vs Commanders
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 76.5 -115 | 76.5 -115 |
| George Pickens | 65.5 -115 | 65.5 -115 |
| Terry McLaurin | 52.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 |
| Stefon Diggs | 45.5 -115 | 45.5 -115 |
| Javonte Williams | 14.5 +100 | 14.5 -135 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Cowboys vs Commanders
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 73.5 -115 | 73.5 -115 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 54.5 -115 | 54.5 -115 |
| Jayden Daniels | 38.5 -111 | 38.5 -120 |
Commanders Best Bets:
- The Washington Commanders have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 2H Moneyline in 7 of their last 16 games (+3.14 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have covered the 2H Spread in 10 of their last 16 games (+2.89 Units / 15% ROI)
Cowboys Best Bets:
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 16 of their last 19 games (+12.40 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.80 Units / 55% ROI)
Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders are 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Commanders are 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- Commanders are 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- CommandersCommandersCommanders are 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Cowboys Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Cowboys are 0-1 (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).
- Cowboys are 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.7 Units / -100% ROI
- Cowboys are 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Cowboys are 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Cowboys
The Commanders are winless (0-4) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .414.
The Commanders were winless (0-4) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .414.
The Commanders are winless (0-10) whe trailing at the end of the first half since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .229.
The Commanders are winless (0-8) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .344.
Dallas Cowboys: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders
The Cowboys are 1-7-1 (.111) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2025 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .488.
The Cowboys are 1-8 (.111) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2025 season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .414.
The Cowboys are winless (0-3) when passing for less than 200 yards since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .448.
The Cowboys are 1-6 (.143) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2025 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .440.
Additional Matchup Notes for Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have been successful on 46.7% of rush attempts since the 2025 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed a success rate of 46.3% on rush attempts since the 2025 season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Cowboys ran just 34.6% offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field last week — 5th-worst in NFL. The Commanders allowed their opponents to runjust 21.6% of plays in their territory last week — best in NFL.
The Cowboys have averaged 0.12 epa per play in the first half since the 2025 season — T-2nd-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 0.15 epa per play in the first half since the 2025 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Commanders had a third down conversion rate of 27.8% on 3rd and 10+ YTG last season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Cowboys defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 26.3% on 3rd and 10+ YTG last season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Commanders were successful on 47.0% of rush attempts last season — 4th-best in NFL. The Cowboys allowed a success rate of 47.1% on rush attempts last season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Commanders have a third down conversion rate of 27.9% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2025 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Cowboys defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 27.1% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2025 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats
The Commanders have converted first downs on just 31 of 63 plays (49%) on 3rd and short since the 2025 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 60%.
The Commanders converted first downs on just 29 of 59 plays (49%) on 3rd and short last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 60%.
The Commanders have started 10 drives inside opposing territory since the 2025 season — 2nd-fewest in NFL.
The Commanders started 34 drives inside their own 20 yard line last season — T-2nd-fewest in NFL.
Dallas Cowboys Offense: Important Stats
The Cowboys have started 7 drives inside opposing territory since the 2025 season — fewest in NFL.
The Cowboys have thrown the ball 62% of the time (38 Pass Attempts/61 plays) on 3rd and short since the 2025 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Cowboys have run the ball on 17% of plays (37 carries/220 plays) on 3rd down since the 2025 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 26%.
The Cowboys threw the ball 63% of the time (37 Pass Attempts/59 plays) on 3rd and short last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats
The Commanders defense allowed successful plays on 17% of pass attempts open coverage in Week 1 — best in NFL; League Avg: 60%.
Only 22% of the plays ran against the Commanders were in their own territory in Week 1 — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Commanders defense have allowed 10.9 yards per play open coverage since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 9.1.
The Commanders defense has allowed just -1.0 yards per dropback (-74 yards/77 attempts) on passes when they have pressured the QB since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 2.4.
Dallas Cowboys Defense: Important Stats
The Cowboys defense allowed scores on 59% of opponent drives (25/42) in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 33%.
The Cowboys defense has allowed an average of 23.7 fantasy points per game to QBs since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 16.5.
The Cowboys defense has allowed first downs on 49% of plays on 3rd down since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
The Cowboys defense has allowed scores on 59% of opponent drives (26/44) in the 1st quarter since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 33%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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