Uruguay vs. Colombia Prediction, Odds | Copa America 2024

min read
Uruguay's Ronald Araujo, left, and Darwin Nunez, right, celebrate after they defeated the United States in an Copa America Group C soccer match, Monday, July 1, 2024, in Kansas City, Mo.
(AP Photo/Ed Zurga)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Jul 10, 2024, 12:12 PM
  • Uruguay (+170) is the favorite on the three-way moneyline.
  • I predict Colombia will do no worse than a draw in Wednesday’s semifinal.
  • Anytime goal scorer prices along with a corner kicks prediction.

With a spot in the Copa America final on the line, Uruguay meets Colombia in a rematch of their 2021 Copa America quarterfinals clash. 

Uruguay secured a spot in the semis after knocking Brazil out on penalty kicks. However, they lost key defender Ronald Araujo to injury in the process. 

As for Colombia, they thrashed Panama 5-0 in the quarterfinals, their seventh win in eight matches this calendar year. 

Here’s a look at the Copa America odds and my prediction for Wednesday’s match. 

Uruguay vs. Colombia Odds

  • Uruguay Moneyline: +170
  • Colombia Moneyline: +180
  • Draw Moneyline: +200
  • Total Goals: 1.5 (-210/+145)
  • Both Teams to Score: Yes (+105), No (-150)

Uruguay vs. Colombia Prediction

Based on some personnel absences for Uruguay, my prediction for Wednesday’s semifinal match is Colombia Draw, No Bet (-115)

In addition to Araujo’s absence, Uruguay will play this match without another key defensive piece: versatile right back Nahitan Nandez. 

While Uruguay have proved a top defense this tournament – they’ve allowed only 1.8 xG across four matches – those absences create a nice sell-high spot. 

Plus, although it may prove an oversimplification, Colombia played better against these sides’ common opponent: Brazil. 

Albeit at different stages in the tournament, Colombia earned a 1-1 draw in the group stage while winning the expected goals battle 1.4 to 0.3. 

In their quarterfinal clash against Brazil, Uruguay managed only 0.9 expected goals with only one shot finding the target. 

Comparatively, Colombia managed six shots on target against Brazil for a psxG tally of 0.91. 

Additionally, the last time these sides met in a competitive match, Colombia edged out Uruguay 0.5 to 0.3 on expected goals in a low-event match. 

They also feature fresher legs, having played fewer minutes than Uruguay, and will bolster their lineup with the return of Jefferson Lerma on Wednesday. 

Pair that with Uruguay’s absences, and I’ll be surprised if Uruguay can capture an outright win at the end of 90 minutes plus injury time on Wednesday. 

Uruguay vs. Colombia: Who will score a goal? 

Based on current betting odds, Uruguay’s Darwin Nunez (+195) has the best chance to score a goal. 

Colombia’s Jhon Cordoba and Miguel Borja (both +250) are next on the odds board, with Uruguay striker Luis Suarez sitting at +260. 

Uruguay vs. Colombia: How many corner kicks will there be? 

Based on the current line of 8.5 corner kicks, I predict the UNDER will hit on Wednesday. 

In their last competitive match, these sides combined for only seven corners and 43 attacking penalty area touches. 

Plus, these sides have combined to see only two of eight combined matches clear 8.5 corners this tournament.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.