USMNT vs. Panama Prediction, Odds | Copa America 2024

min read
United States' Christian Pulisic controls the ball.
(Jose Breton/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Jun 27, 2024, 3:38 PM
  • The USMNT (-275) is the favorite on the three-way moneyline.
  • The United States has won only one of the last three H2H meetings.
  • Why bettors should expect a strong start from the USMNT.

Following a 2-0 win over Bolivia in their first group match, the USMNT will travel to Atlanta for a second group match against Panama. 

Recently, manager Gregg Berhalter’s side has struggled against the Panamanian squad. A July 2023 Gold Cup match ended 1-1 with Panama winning on penalties. 

That marked the second win in three head-to-head meetings for Panama, who lost 3-1 to Uruguay in their Matchday 1 group match. 

Here’s a look at the Copa America odds and my prediction for Thursday’s match. 

USMNT vs. Panama Odds

  • United States Moneyline: -275
  • Panama Moneyline: +750
  • Draw Moneyline: +375
  • Total Goals: 2.5 (-120/-115)

USMNT vs. Panama Prediction

United States 1H Moneyline (-120)

The USMNT has recently excelled at finding quality scoring chances early. 

Albeit against an inferior opponent in Bolivia, they entered the interval with a 2-0 halftime advantage. 

That was a deserved advantage based on the underlying metrics. 

Berhalter’s side posted a +0.44 expected goal differential and a +1.13 post-shot xG differential in the first half, per fotmob.com. 

In two pre-tournament friendlies, the United States repeated their early success in terms of goal scoring. 

Against Brazil and Colombia, two sides miles ahead of Panama in quality, they scored a first half goal in both contests. 

While they failed to win either of those halves, those two opponents present a higher attacking threat than Panama. 

In their opening Copa America match against Uruguay, Panama generated next-to-nothing early. 

The first half saw them create only 0.15 expected goals and 0.03 post-shot expected goals.

In fact, 73% of their total psxG total for the match came in the 94th minute when they were down 3-0. 

The last time these sides met, Panama managed only a single big scoring chance on four shots in the first half. Ultimately, they didn’t score until the 99th minute. 

Accordingly, this handicap is essentially whether the United States can manage a first-half goal. 

Given they’re -175 to accomplish that feat, I’ll lay the -120 and back another strong start from Berhalter’s squad. 

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.