USMNT vs. Uruguay Prediction, Odds | Copa America 2024

min read
Christian Pulisic of the United States, center, celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal against Bolivia during a Copa America Group C soccer match in Arlington, Texas, Sunday, June 23, 2024.
(AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Jul 01, 2024, 9:55 AM
  • The USMNT (+150) is the favorite on the three-way moneyline.
  • Following a loss to Panama, USA likely needs a win to reach the knockout round.
  • Is the market overrating the US in a must-win spot?

All of the USMNT’s positive momentum came undone in their second group round match against Panama. 

Following a 2-0 win against Bolivia, the US lost 2-1 to Panama after Tim Weah received his marching orders on 19 minutes.

Now they need a win against Uruguay to reach the knockout rounds. In two group matches, Uruguay has yet to drop points. 

Here’s a look at the Copa America odds and my prediction for Monday’s match. 

USMNT vs. Uruguay Odds

  • United States Moneyline: +150
  • Uruguay Moneyline: +190
  • Draw Moneyline: +220
  • Total Goals: 2.5 (+110/-150)

USMNT vs. Uruguay Prediction

Uruguay Draw, No Bet (+100)

There’s an obvious must-win tax placed on the United States, but I don’t expect Uruguay is going to roll over. 

While Marcelo Bielsa’s squad has the top spot in the group locked up, don’t expect rotation from the South American squad. 

Plus, this is a team that enters Monday’s match with a brilliant recent record in competitive fixtures. 

Across their last 11 competitive matches, Uruguay has dropped points only twice: the World Cup against Portugal and qualifying against Ecuador. 

If bettors sample only their previous three matches, Uruguay is 3-0-0 (W-D-L) with a +11 goal differential. 

Bielsa’s side has also shown they can play just as well without the ball as they can with possession. 

In the Fall World Cup qualifying matches against Brazil and Argentina – sides I rate ahead of the US in terms of their quality with the ball – Uruguay won both by multiple goals. 

While they drastically overperformed the underlying metrics—they posted a +4 goal differential compared to a -0.1 expected goal difference—their defensive quality should be noted. 

Against both those teams, Uruguay held each under 1.15 expected goals, including only 0.5 expected goals against Brazil. 

Plus, bettors recently caught a glimpse of how this US team looks against quality South American opposition. 

Prior to the Copa America, they played two friendlies against Colombia and Brazil. 

The US failed to win both matches and suffered a 5-1 drubbing to Colombia as the possession-dominant side. 

For those reasons, a straight United States win feels unlikely here and is overpriced at -140, given the circumstances. 

Add in the absence of Weah and the potential absence of Matt Turner, and I’ll back the dogs at a nice price. 

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.