- The Marlins are -125 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs starting pitcher: Caleb Kilian
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera
- Watch the game on FOX
The Chicago Cubs (+105) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-125) on Saturday, April 29, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Cubs vs Marlins Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cubs are 14-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 11-16 ATS.
Cubs vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -190 | O 9 -105 | +105 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +155 | U 9 -115 | -125 |
Cubs vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 66.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+15.95 Units / 105% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.70 Units / 55% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+11.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Patrick Wisdom has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 21 games (+11.30 Units / 53% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.80 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games at home (+12.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 22 games (+6.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.45 Units / 48% ROI)
Marlins vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Cody Bellinger | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
Marlins vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Cody Bellinger | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Nico Hoerner | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Cody Bellinger | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Marlins vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Edward Cabrera | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
| Caleb Kilian | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+10.10 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 21 games (+8.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+7.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.75 Units / 28% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+9.90 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+8.55 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+5.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games at home (+1.35 Units / 11% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 15-10 against the Run Line (+5.45 Units / 18.05% ROI).
- 14-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +5 Units / 17.39% ROI
- 12-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.4 Units / -5.06% ROI
- 12-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.3 Units / -4.74% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 11-16 against the Run Line (-9.9 Units / -25.88% ROI).
- 14-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 7.4% ROI
- 11-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.4 Units / -18.27% ROI
- 15-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.8 Units / 9.36% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 17% (41/234) against Edward Cabrera since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 11 of 41 batters (27%) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 0 Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 20 of 104 batters (19%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has thrown his fastball for a strike just 53% (80/151) of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Cubs are just 37-21 (.638) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .809.
The Cubs are just 23-33 (.411) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .548.
The Cubs are 55-64 (.462) when underdogs since last season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .395.
The Cubs are just 0-7 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .095.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Marlins are just 9-47 (.161) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Marlins are just 9-66 (.120) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Marlins are just 114-19 (.857) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Marlins are just 60-15 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting .221 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Cubs are batting .308 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .376 (381 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Cubs hitters are slugging .365 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters are slugging just .338 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .619 (1,497 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .281 (1,497 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .351 against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,222 of 13,289 batters (9%) since the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
- Jon Chargois (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D15
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Jameson Taillon (Cubs): Groin, D15
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D15
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
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