- The Cubs are -200 favorites vs the Nationals
- Cubs starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jacob Irvin
- Watch the game on MASN
The Chicago Cubs (-200) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+165) on Wednesday, May 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Cubs vs Nationals Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cubs are 15-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 17-12 ATS.
Cubs vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 -120 | O 8 -105 | -200 |
| Nationals | +1.5 +100 | U 8 -115 | +165 |
Cubs vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 65.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+18.50 Units / 96% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+15.70 Units / 60% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.80 Units / 50% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- Patrick Wisdom has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+11.80 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+6.85 Units / 20% ROI)
Nationals vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
Nationals vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
Nationals vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Nationals vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus Stroman | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -160 |
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+8.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 24 games (+6.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 24 games (+5.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.95 Units / 57% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+5.75 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+3.10 Units / 17% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 17-12 against the Run Line (+5.65 Units / 16.12% ROI).
- 15-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.9 Units / 5.56% ROI
- 13-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.6 Units / -11.27% ROI
- 15-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.6 Units / 1.88% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 17-12 against the Run Line (+4.1 Units / 11.88% ROI).
- 11-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.85 Units / 2.93% ROI
- 12-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.05 Units / -9.7% ROI
- 14-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.85 Units / 2.62% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marcus Stroman has walked 9 of 32 batters (28%) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — first Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has located his fastballs down 52% of the time (141/270) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .200 (3-for-15) against Marcus Stroman on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .352 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (56/92) against Marcus Stroman this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 97th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Cubs are just 38-21 (.644) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .810.
The Cubs are just 10-47 (.175) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Cubs are just 66-45 (.595) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Cubs are just 0-9 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Nationals are just 30-67 (.309) at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Nationals are just 11-67 (.141) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Nationals are just 65-113 (.365) at home since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Nationals are just 116-13 (.899) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting .294 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .881 (352 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .736.
The Cubs are batting .217 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .333 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .583.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have put 44% of their swings in play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 30% at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.62 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.93.
Nationals hitters have 70 extra-base hits out of 290 total hits (just 24%) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs have won 56% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 2.98 (111.2 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.46.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 36% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- McKenzie Dickerson (Nationals): Calf, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Chad Kuhl (Nationals): Foot, D15
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Jameson Taillon (Cubs): Groin, D15
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D15
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Yan Gomes (Cubs): Head, Day-to-Day
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