- The – are favorites vs the –
- Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin
- Watch the game on MASN
The Chicago Cubs () visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals () on Thursday, May 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Washington.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Cubs vs Nationals Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Cubs are 15-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 18-12 ATS.
Cubs vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | O | ||
| Nationals | U |
Cubs vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 59.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+17.50 Units / 86% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+14.45 Units / 53% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.80 Units / 45% ROI)
- Patrick Wisdom has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 26 games (+10.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+10.45 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.10 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+7.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+7.45 Units / 93% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 16 games at home (+7.15 Units / 29% ROI)
Nationals vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Nelson Velazquez | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Nationals vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Nelson Velazquez | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Nationals vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Nelson Velazquez | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Nationals vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
| Jameson Taillon | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -160 |
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 26 games (+7.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 25 games (+6.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.95 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 24 games (+5.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games (+4.25 Units / 15% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+7.40 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.20 Units / 21% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 17-13 against the Run Line (+4.45 Units / 12.28% ROI).
- 15-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 13-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.65 Units / -14.09% ROI
- 16-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.6 Units / 4.83% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 18-12 against the Run Line (+5.1 Units / 14.37% ROI).
- 12-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.5 Units / 8.33% ROI
- 12-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.1 Units / -12.62% ROI
- 15-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.85 Units / 5.51% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jameson Taillon has walked 10 of 436 right-handed batters (2%) since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has allowed an OBP of just .228 (171 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .317 — 97th Percentile.
44% of Jameson Taillon’s strikeouts are looking this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 34% (90/268) against Jameson Taillon when he’s behind in the count since last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 96th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Patrick Corbin has a strikeout rate of just 31% (21 SO in 68 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — sixth Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .336 (39-for-116) against Patrick Corbin this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .245 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .316 (43-for-136) against Patrick Corbin this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .244 — fourth Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has a strikeout rate of just 5% (2 SO in 43 PAs) versus the bottom of the order this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Cubs are just 38-21 (.644) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .810.
The Cubs are just 0-10 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .107.
The Cubs are just 1-6 (.143) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Cubs are just 80-5 (.941) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Nationals are just 31-67 (.316) at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .531.
The Nationals are just 117-13 (.900) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Nationals are just 0-115 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Nationals are just 67-106 (.387) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting just .233 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .352.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .641 (645 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .512.
The Cubs are batting .289 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .320 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 30% at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have put 44% of their swings in play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals hitters have just 51 strikeouts in 344 PA’s (15%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have 38 extra-base hits out of 167 total hits (just 23%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 2.93 (119.2 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.49.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 36% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- McKenzie Dickerson (Nationals): Calf, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Chad Kuhl (Nationals): Foot, D15
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D15
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Yan Gomes (Cubs): Concussion, D7
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