- The Phillies are -130 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Chicago Cubs (+110) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-130) on Friday, May 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Cubs vs Phillies Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cubs are 19-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 17-26 ATS.
Cubs vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -185 | O 8.5 +100 | +110 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +150 | U 8.5 -120 | -130 |
Cubs vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 48.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Cubs vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 18 away games (+12.20 Units / 67% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 36 games (+11.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 33 games (+10.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 18 away games (+10.20 Units / 49% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 41 games (+10.20 Units / 16% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 19 games at home (+14.70 Units / 77% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+13.95 Units / 44% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+13.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 16 games at home (+13.15 Units / 38% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+11.80 Units / 56% ROI)
Phillies vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
Phillies vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Phillies vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Phillies vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus Stroman | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
| Ranger Suarez | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in their last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 92% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+5.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 39 games (+4.35 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.15 Units / 19% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 42 games (+7.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 26 games (+7.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+3.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+0.30 Units / 4% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 23-20 against the Run Line (+1.7 Units / 3.17% ROI).
- 19-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.8 Units / -11.21% ROI
- 22-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.1 Units / -0.21% ROI
- 20-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.4 Units / -9.27% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 17-26 against the Run Line (-15.55 Units / -27.23% ROI).
- 20-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.8 Units / -14.8% ROI
- 18-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.95 Units / -14.74% ROI
- 23-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.55 Units / 7.47% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marcus Stroman has walked 13 of 53 batters (24%) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 62% (45/72) against Marcus Stroman this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 96th Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has located his fastballs down 49% of the time (194/395) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has located his fastballs down 49% of the time (194/395) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 98th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (100/159) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 99th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has a strike rate of just 59% (326/554) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 44% (947/2,148) against Ranger Suarez since last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 49% — third Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has an average spin rate of 1890.5 RPM on fastballs since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 2225.3 — second Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Cubs are just 1-90 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Cubs are just 5-8 (.385) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .610.
The Cubs are just 26-13 (.667) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Cubs are just 2-10 (.167) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Phillies are just 1-8 (.111) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .431.
The Phillies are 13-14 (.481) after a win as underdogs since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Phillies are just 7-13 (.350) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are just 1-12 (.077) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.07 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .345 (841 PA’s) on the road this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Cubs hitters are slugging .316 with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .268.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .399 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .582.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .336 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Phillies hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies hitter’ K:BB ratio is 5.1 against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 2.7.
28% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% against Cubs pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 27 of 384 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 8.94 (49.1 IP) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.42.
The Cubs have allowed 8.17 runs per game (49/6) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.70.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 15 double plays in 284 opportunities (5%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH (1,050 batted balls) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Phillies pitchers have walked 214 of 3,230 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 21 of 402 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Phillies vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Knee, D10
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D15
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Right Meniscus, D60
- Cody Bellinger (Cubs): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Nicholas Hoerner (Cubs): Hamstring, D10
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