- The Phillies are -160 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Chicago Cubs (+135) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-160) on Saturday, May 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Cubs vs Phillies Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cubs are 20-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 17-27 ATS.
Cubs vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -145 | O 9 -115 | +135 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +120 | U 9 -105 | -160 |
Cubs vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 75.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 37 games (+12.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 34 games (+11.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 42 games (+11.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 10 games (+10.80 Units / 82% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 19 away games (+9.25 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+13.70 Units / 69% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+12.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+12.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+12.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.35 Units / 31% ROI)
Phillies vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Phillies vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -110 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +210 |
Phillies vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -450 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Phillies vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jameson Taillon | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -160 |
| Aaron Nola | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -110 |
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in their last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 93% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 40 games (+5.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 away games (+3.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.45 Units / 7% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 43 games (+8.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 27 games (+6.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+4.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+2.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 2 of their last 5 games at home (+0.10 Units / 2% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 24-20 against the Run Line (+2.7 Units / 4.89% ROI).
- 20-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.65 Units / -8.82% ROI
- 23-20 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.9 Units / 1.87% ROI
- 20-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.6 Units / -11.51% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 17-27 against the Run Line (-16.55 Units / -28.49% ROI).
- 20-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.15 Units / -16.69% ROI
- 19-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.95 Units / -12.36% ROI
- 23-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.35 Units / 4.82% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jameson Taillon has walked 11 of 466 right-handed batters (2%) since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has walked 12 of 309 batters (4%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters since last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .404 (38-for-94) against Jameson Taillon on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 13th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: .341 — 10th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has walked 39 of 838 batters (5%) since last season — tied for 12th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 93rd Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (55/160) when he’s behind in the count this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 91st Percentile.
Aaron Nola has a strikeout rate of just 12% (5 SO in 41 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — fifth Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed a slugging percentage of .594 (19 Total Bases / 32 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .384 — 14th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has walked 16 of 555 right-handed batters (3%) since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 99th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Cubs are just 14-23 (.378) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .596.
The Cubs are just 26-13 (.667) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Cubs are just 2-10 (.167) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Cubs are just 0-18 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Phillies are just 1-9 (.100) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .426.
The Phillies are just 1-13 (.071) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Phillies are just 9-7 (.562) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Phillies are just 4-10 (.286) after a road loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .458.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .488 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .847 (501 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .747.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .285 (965 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .359 (501 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Phillies are batting .336 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .284 (528 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .243 (286 PA’s) against LHP over the last 30 days (20 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 8.82 (49.0 IP) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.38.
Cubs pitchers have walked 27 of 393 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against Cubs pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 41% of their games since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 15 double plays in 298 opportunities (5%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Phillies pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 27 of 411 batters (7%) over the last 14 days (11 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Phillies vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D60
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Knee, D10
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D15
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Right Meniscus, D60
- Cody Bellinger (Cubs): Knee, D10
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
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