- The Phillies are -120 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele
- Phillies starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Chicago Cubs (-105) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-115) on Sunday, May 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Cubs vs Phillies Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cubs are 20-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 18-27 ATS.
Cubs vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +155 | O 8.5 -110 | -105 |
| Phillies | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -110 | -115 |
Cubs vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 57.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 38 games (+13.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 11 games (+11.80 Units / 80% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 73% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 72% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Runs Over in his last 6 games (+9.80 Units / 163% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+14.70 Units / 70% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+12.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+11.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+11.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+11.55 Units / 48% ROI)
Phillies vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Phillies vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Phillies vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Phillies vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Steele | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -120 |
| Taijuan Walker | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in their last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 93% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 away games (+4.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 41 games (+3.90 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.85 Units / 15% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 44 games (+7.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 28 games (+5.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+3.25 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+2.35 Units / 47% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 24-21 against the Run Line (+1.25 Units / 2.2% ROI).
- 20-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.65 Units / -10.51% ROI
- 24-20 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.9 Units / 3.85% ROI
- 20-24 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.75 Units / -13.55% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 18-27 against the Run Line (-15.3 Units / -25.89% ROI).
- 21-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.15 Units / -14.68% ROI
- 20-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.95 Units / -10.06% ROI
- 23-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.2 Units / 2.4% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 52% of the time (113/217) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 52% of the time (113/217) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 49% of the time (268/549) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 49% of the time (268/549) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 9% (4/47) against Taijuan Walker on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 17% (28/170) against Taijuan Walker this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: 26% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .292 (7-for-24) against Taijuan Walker with two-strikes — 4th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .166 — fourth Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has allowed an OPS of 1.241 (34 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: .750 — third Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Cubs are just 14-23 (.378) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .596.
The Cubs are just 26-13 (.667) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Cubs are just 0-19 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Cubs are just 11-52 (.175) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Phillies are just 1-13 (.071) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Phillies are just 2-9 (.182) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .425.
The Phillies are 34-21 (.618) after a home win since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .540.
The Phillies are just 1-17 (.056) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .359 (501 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .325.
The Cubs are batting just .275 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .351.
The Cubs are batting .294 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .388 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .578.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .336 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .340 (1,177 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
28% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .522 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .446.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 8.57 (49.1 IP) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.39.
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 6.29 (107.1 IP) over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (1,085 batted balls) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Cubs pitchers have walked 29 of 401 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 16 double plays in 303 opportunities (5%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (1,077 batted balls) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 5.63 (209.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.46.
Phillies vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D60
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Knee, D10
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D15
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Right Meniscus, D60
- Cody Bellinger (Cubs): Knee, D10
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
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