- The Phillies are -155 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson
- Phillies starting pitcher: Matthew Strahm
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+130) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-155) on Tuesday, May 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Diamondbacks vs Phillies Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 28-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 18-29 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -155 | O 9.5 -115 | +130 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +125 | U 9.5 -105 | -155 |
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 64.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+11.15 Units / 66% ROI)
- Dominic Fletcher has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 16 away games (+10.35 Units / 64% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+10.15 Units / 45% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.00 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+13.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+13.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 23 games at home (+12.55 Units / 54% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Under in 27 of his last 37 games (+12.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Phillies vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryne Nelson | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 47 games (+11.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 21 away games (+9.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 away games (+6.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 40 games (+6.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 40 games (+5.90 Units / 12% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 46 games (+9.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 30 games (+6.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+5.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+1.95 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 7 games at home (+0.25 Units / 4% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 28-20 against the Run Line (+7.55 Units / 12.58% ROI).
- 28-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.1 Units / 16.93% ROI
- 24-21 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.95 Units / 1.79% ROI
- 21-24 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.95 Units / -9.43% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 18-29 against the Run Line (-17.4 Units / -28.43% ROI).
- 22-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.45 Units / -15.87% ROI
- 20-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.1 Units / -11.87% ROI
- 24-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.2 Units / 4.22% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryne Nelson has struck out just 10% (9/95) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .258 (24-for-93) against Ryne Nelson with two-strikes this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .168 — fourth Percentile.
Ryne Nelson’s K:BB ratio is 23.0 (23/1) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.6 — 100th Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has allowed an OBP of .436 (94 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .317 — third Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matt Strahm has a strikeout rate of 44% (36 SO in 81 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs since last season — tied for 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 27% — 98th Percentile.
Matt Strahm has a strikeout rate of 42% (17 SO in 40 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs since last season — 4th best among in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 96th Percentile.
Matt Strahm has struck out 33% (77/236) of right-handed batters he faced since last season — tied for 9th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 26% — 91st Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .134 (9-for-67) against Matt Strahm’s elevated fastball since last season — tied for 13th best among among 126 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .206 — 90th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Diamondbacks are 6-2 (.750) after a road loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .458.
The Diamondbacks are just 88-7 (.926) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Diamondbacks are 21-1 (.955) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
The Diamondbacks are just 0-16 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Phillies are just 1-14 (.067) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Phillies are just 4-10 (.286) after a road loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .458.
The Phillies are just 24-31 (.436) after a loss as favorites since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .596.
The Phillies are just 94-7 (.931) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have scored first in just 25% of their home games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .447 against RHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 41% of their swings in play this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Phillies are batting .336 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .281 (584 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
27% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 75% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 16 double plays in 312 opportunities (5%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed a run 41% of the time after an opposing score this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (1,116 batted balls) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The longest HR allowed by the Phillies pitchers this season traveled 438.0 feet — — 3rd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 455.8
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D60
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Knee, D10
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D15
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Anthony Misiewicz (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Hamstring, D15
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D60
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