- The Padres are -135 favorites vs the Dodgers
- Dodgers starting pitcher: Dustin May
- Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell
- Watch the game on BSSD
The Los Angeles Dodgers (+110) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-135) on Saturday, May 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Dodgers vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Dodgers are 19-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 18-15 ATS.
Dodgers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Dodgers | +1.5 -185 | O 8.5 -110 | +110 |
| Padres | -1.5 +150 | U 8.5 -110 | -135 |
Dodgers vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Dodgers and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dodgers Player Prop Bets Today:
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- David Peralta has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+9.80 Units / 50% ROI)
- Max Muncy has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 21 games (+9.45 Units / 45% ROI)
- Max Muncy has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+9.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- Trayce Thompson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.75 Units / 67% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 33 games (+10.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+7.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+7.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Rougned Odor has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.65 Units / 53% ROI)
Padres vs Dodgers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Smith | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Miguel Vargas | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Trayce Thompson | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
Padres vs Dodgers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Smith | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Miguel Vargas | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Trayce Thompson | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
Padres vs Dodgers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Smith | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Miguel Vargas | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Trayce Thompson | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Padres vs Dodgers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| May | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
| Blake Snell | 6.5 -140 | 6.5 +105 |
Dodgers Best Bets Today:
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 29 games (+7.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 away games (+6.75 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.15 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.95 Units / 71% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 49% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 26 games (+7.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.80 Units / 52% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.50 Units / 37% ROI)
Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 16-17 against the Run Line (+1.05 Units / 2.94% ROI).
- 19-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -7.34% ROI
- 19-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.75 Units / 12.98% ROI
- 13-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.5 Units / -20.78% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 18-15 against the Run Line (-0.05 Units / -0.12% ROI).
- 18-15 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.8 Units / -5.79% ROI
- 13-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.2 Units / -19.43% ROI
- 18-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.9 Units / 10.94% ROI
Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .168 (20-for-119) against Dustin May this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — 97th Percentile.
Dustin May has a strikeout rate of just 32% (23 SO in 73 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 11% (7/64) against Dustin May with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .095 (2-for-21) against Dustin May’s elevated fastball this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .228 — 96th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 54% (19/35) against Blake Snell on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Blake Snell has a strike rate of just 48% (60/125) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 33% (41/125) against Blake Snell when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 48% — first Percentile.
Blake Snell has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 46% (84/183) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Dodgers are 61-35 (.635) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .469.
The Dodgers are 6-53 (.102) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Dodgers are 54-5 (.915) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Dodgers are 116-23 (.835) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers
The Padres are 14-2 (.875) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Padres are 7-1 (.875) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Padres are just 1-12 (.077) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .108.
The Padres are 7-8 (.467) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .364.
Dodgers Hitting Stats & Trends
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .778 (2,296 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .685.
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .790 (5,450 PA’s) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Dodgers hitters have an OBP of .338 (5,450 PA’s) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Dodgers hitters are slugging .452 against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 99 walks in 815 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have drawn 60 walks in 438 PA’s (14%) over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Padres are batting just .235 at home since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Padres hitters have put just 28% of their swings in play on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Dodgers Pitching Stats & Trends
Dodgers pitchers had an ERA of 2.54 (718.1 IP) on the road in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
The Dodgers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Dodgers have won 52% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 3.08 (1562.1 IP) on the road since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have won 37% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 60% of opposing batters this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Padres pitchers have walked 12 of 224 batters (5%) over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres vs. Dodgers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- José Azocar (Padres): Elbow Inflammation, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
- Gavin Lux (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Michael Grove (Dodgers): Groin, D15
- Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D15
- Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Pepiot (Dodgers): Oblique, D60
- Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Reyes (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Julio Martinez (Dodgers): Back, D10
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