- The Texans are -3 point favorites vs the Dolphins
- Total (Over/Under): 39.5 points
- Watch the game on NFL Network
The Miami Dolphins visit NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans on Aug. 19. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00pm EDT in Houston.
The Texans are betting favorites in this preseason matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).
The Dolphins vs. Texans Over/Under is 39.5 total points for the game.
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Dolphins vs. Texans Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Dolphins | +3 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +135 |
| Texans | -3 -110 | 39.5 -110 | -160 |
Dolphins vs. Texans Prediction
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Texans will win this preseason game with 56.9% confidence.
Dolphins vs Texans Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Dolphins will cover the spread with 53.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Dolphins and Texans, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players this preseason game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jaylen Waddle has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jaylen Waddle has hit the Longest Reception Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.10 Units / 35% ROI)
- Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Passing Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 69% ROI)
- Jeff Wilson has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Completions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.45 Units / 43% ROI)
Best Texans Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Texans players for this preseason matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Davis Mills has hit the Interceptions Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- Dameon Pierce has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- Dameon Pierce has hit the Longest Rush Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Rex Burkhead has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.35 Units / 45% ROI)
- Dameon Pierce has hit the Longest Reception Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.65 Units / 46% ROI)
Dolphins Best Bets:
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.85 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.85 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.80 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.80 Units / 45% ROI)
Texans Best Bets:
- The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 18 games (+7.95 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 17 games (+5.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have scored first in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+4.85 Units / 80% ROI)
Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Dolphins went 0-1 (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).
- Dolphins are 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.45 Units / -100% ROI
- Dolphins are 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
- Dolphins are 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / ROI
Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Texans went 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Texans are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 60.61% ROI
- Texans are 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
- Texans are 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans
The Dolphins are winless (0-4) when playing in cold weather since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .495.
The Dolphins are undefeated (13-0) when allowing less than 22 points since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .735.
The Dolphins were 4-6 (.400) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter in the 2022 season — tied for 10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .496.
The Dolphins were 6-3 (.667) when within 7 points at the two minute warning in the 2022 season — tied for 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .492.
Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins
The Texans are winless (0-5-1) when within 3 points at the two minute warning since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .492.
The Texans are 2-20-1 (.087) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .496.
The Texans are winless (0-10) vs top 10 defenses since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .456.
The Texans were winless (0-7-1) at home in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .560.
Additional Matchup Notes for Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans
The Texans ran successful plays on just 38.8% of rush attempts last season — fourth-worst in NFL. Dolphins allowed successful plays on just 38.4% of rush attempts last season — third-best in NFL.
The Texans ran successful plays on just 32.3% of rush attempts in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — third-worst in NFL. Dolphins allowed successful plays on just 32.2% of rush attempts in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — third-best in NFL.
The Texans were successful on just 34.1% of plays they have run in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — third-worst in NFL. Dolphins allowed their opponents to be successful on just 36.7% of plays in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — third-best in NFL.
Dolphins RBs rushed for 10 or more yards on 16.1% of 93 carries in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — fourth-best in NFL. The Texans allowed 10+ yards on 16.2% of carries to RBs in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — fourth-worst in NFL.
Dolphins RBs averaged 8.0 targets per game in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — fifth-highest in NFL. The Texans allowed 7.8 receptions per game to RBs in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL.
Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats
The Dolphins converted first downs on just 25 of 54 plays (46%) on 3rd and short in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 60%.
The Dolphins had an average drive start position from the 20.6 yard line in the 1st half in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 25.9.
The Dolphins converted first downs on just 5 of 16 plays (31%) on 3rd and short in the last 8 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 61%.
The Dolphins had an average drive start position from the 23.3 yard line in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 26.7.
Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats
The Texans committed 31 turnovers in the 2022 season — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Texans have converted first downs on just 66 of 301 plays (22%) in close and late situations since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
The Texans have scored on 27% of their drives since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 37%.
The Texans have run successful plays on 34% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats
20% of the plays ran against the Dolphins were in the red zone in the 1st quarter in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
The Dolphins defense blitzed on 24% of plays in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
37% of the plays ran against the Dolphins were in the red zone in the 1st quarter in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
The Dolphins defense blitzed 59 times in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — most in NFL.
Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats
Offenses facing the Texans threw the ball 46% of the time (522 Pass Attempts/1,131 plays) in the 2022 season — tied for lowest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.
Opponents ran the ball 32.4 times per game against The Texans defense (550 carries / 17 games) in the 2022 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 26.4.
The Texans defense allowed an average of 26.4 fantasy points per game as a unit to RBs in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17.5.
The Texans defense allowed 170.9 rushing yards per game (2,905/17) in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 122.1.
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