Soccer Odds, Predictions: My Premier League Picks this Weekend

min read
Newcastle's Callum Wilson controls the ball during the Champions League group F soccer match between AC Milan and Newcastle at the San Siro stadium in Milan, Italy, Tuesday, Sept. 19, 2023.
(Antonio Calanni/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Sep 29, 2023, 2:26 PM
  • Why Newcastle United should cruise against Burnley.
  • Can soccer bettors expect positive regression for the Everton attack?
  • Read on for full analysis of Premier League picks.

Matchday 7 of the English Premier League has arrived, and I’m ready to present a pair of Premier League picks. 

Headlining the 10-match schedule is Tottenham vs. Liverpool Saturday in London. Elsewhere, Arsenal travels to Bournemouth, Manchester City goes to Wolves and Manchester United hosts Crystal Palace. 

However, I’m focused on two other matches for my bets this weekend. Without further delay, let’s get to the picks. 

EPL Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Premier League Matchday 7 Betting Predictions

Same-Game Parlay: Newcastle United Moneyline & Callum Wilson Anytime Goal (+100) 

The fixtures are starting to pile up for Newcastle, but I’ll be shocked if Burnley gives them trouble. 

Through three home matches, the Magpies have posted a +1.2 expected goal differential per 90 minutes, good for third-best in the league. 

Burnley, meanwhile, sits at a -0.17 xGDiff per 90 minutes in one road match. However, that came against Nottingham Forest, a side far worse than Newcastle. 

Manager Eddie Howe’s side should pick up all three points at a venue where they’ve won the expected goals battle in all but three of their last 22 matches. 

As for the second leg, Wilson offers scoring upside after resting in the midweek. In his last two starts, he’s amassed 2.2 expected goals, per fbref.com. 

Given Burnley’s defensive struggles against top teams – they’ve conceded 5.1 expected goals to Manchester City, Manchester United & Tottenham – Wilson’s scoring should continue. 

Everton Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-130) vs. Luton Town

It can’t be overstated how unlucky Everton’s attack has run in the early goings. 

Although they’ve scored only four goals, it comes against 9.4 expected, per fbref.com. Shrink the sample down to two home matches against Fulham and Wolves – the closest comparisons to Luton Town – and bettors will find it’s zero goals off four expected. 

With a number of offensive pieces returning to health – both Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Jack Harrison could feature in this match – the Toffees attack offers outstanding upside. 

It’s also a great chance to sell high on this Luton defense, which has admittedly posted solid metrics over their last two EPL matches. 

Against Fulham (A) and Wolves (H), the EPL newcomers surrendered only 1.6 expected goals. 

However, both of those attacks fall behind Everton’s attack in my estimation. Add in the short turnaround for Luton after a midweek Cup fixture, and I’ll back Everton to positively regress. 

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.