- Chelsea is predicted to be a 0.5-goal neutral underdog against Man City.
- Manchester City finished 5-1-0 (W-D-L) in its last six meetings against Chelsea.
- My Chelsea vs Man City prediction is the Manchester City Moneyline (-130).
Saturday’s FA Cup final pits Manchester City against Chelsea at Wembley Stadium.
City needed a comeback victory to reach the final. After conceding the first goal against Southampton, Pep Guardiola’s side scored twice in the final 10 minutes to reach the final.
Chelsea dispatched Leeds United 1-0 in their FA Cup semifinal. It marked the first win for Chelsea against a Premier League side en route to their first final since 2018.
Check out the Soccer odds and my Chelsea vs Man City prediction.
Chelsea vs Man City: FA Cup Odds
Man City vs Chelsea Prediction
Based on Manchester City’s dominant performance at Chelsea in April and their superior health, my Chelsea vs Man City prediction is the Manchester City Moneyline (-130).
City beat the brakes off Chelsea at Stamford Bridge last month. A 3-0 win looked as lopsided as the stats indicated with City scoring all three after halftime.
Guardiola’s side amassed 2.3 expected goals and 3.5 post-shot expected goals against the Blues.
Chelsea posted 1.14 xG and post-shot xG, but it largely came in garbage time. Of the latter output, 76% came down 3-0 to their Big Six rivals.
Even more concerning for Chelsea is their attacking health.
Wingers Pedro Neto, Estevao and Jamie Gittens all could miss the final. We’ve seen recently that Chelsea’s attack has struggled to create meaningful chances in their absence.
Against Nottingham Forest – one of the Premier League’s worst defenses – Chelsea managed only 0.8 post-shot xG on attempts excluding penalties.
Then the attack traveled to Liverpool and scored once off a measly 0.3 post-shot xG. On Saturday, they’ll take on a City defense that rates out as the best of those three opponents.
Defensively, Chelsea qualifies as a highly volatile unit. An average Forest attack created 1.8 post-shot xG on attempts excluding penalties.
While holding Liverpool to 0.5 post-shot xG looks good, it’s worth considering the Reds played without four starting attackers.
City will enter the final – albeit on short rest – fully healthy. Even at a rest disadvantage, the health disparity should lead to City earning its second FA Cup in the last four years.
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