A few weeks ago, this Falcons at Cowboys matchup would have looked like a blowout waiting to happen. Instead, the Cowboys look vulnerable after losing to the Broncos in a game that wasn’t as close as the 30-16 score indicates.
Dallas is the heavy favorite in this Week 10 game, as evidenced by the Cowboys (-9) line provided by BetMGM. However, NFL betting odds don’t always tell the whole story.
The Falcons are playing well and have a chance to make this game competitive. Read on to find out why I think the Falcons can cover the nine-point spread.
Dak Prescott’s Lingering Injury
Dak Prescott returned to the field against the Broncos after missing one game with a calf injury, but he couldn’t provide much of a spark for the Cowboys’ offense. Prescott averaged just 5.9 yards per completion on Sunday, his lowest of the season. So it’s worth wondering if Prescott is healthy.
If Dak isn’t 100%, turnovers could hurt this Dallas offense. Dak has only thrown five interceptions this year, but three of those interceptions occurred when his team was trailing.
The Falcons offense is fully capable of getting an early lead on Sunday, and that may force Prescott into some uncomfortable situations in which he has to take risks downfield.
The Cowboys Defense Is Too Reliant on Turnovers
For the Cowboys, the most concerning part of Sunday’s game was their defensive performance. The Broncos lost two offensive tackles to ankle injuries but still scored 30 points on the Dallas defense.
The Cowboys’ defense has the third-most interceptions in the league, but Sunday’s game was an example of what can happen when this team doesn’t get takeaways.
The Falcons Offense Is Hitting Its Stride
Matt Ryan lost Julio Jones this offseason, but he’s found a new favorite target in Cordarrelle Patterson. With Calvin Ridley leaving the team due to personal reasons, Ryan must work with Patterson and Olamide Zaccheaus.
This Falcons team isn’t the same team that played in Super Bowl LI. Matt Ryan knows this, but he’s made it work with a depleted roster. Nevertheless, Matt Ryan is playing inspired football at age 36, and he has the Falcons competing for a spot in the NFL playoffs.
Ryan threw for 343 yards against the Saints, completing four passes of more than 30 yards. This season, Dallas has given up plenty of big plays; the Cowboys’ defense ranks 28th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. So if the Cowboys can’t find a way to tighten up their secondary and limit big plays, it could spell trouble for Dallas.
Looking at the Spread for Falcons at Cowboys
Considering Dallas was losing 30-0 at one point in Week 9, the Cowboys -9 spread looks a little high. However, this Falcons at Cowboys matchup should be high scoring, and Matt Ryan is playing well enough to keep it close should the game turn into a shootout.
The public loves the Dallas Cowboys this week. Do you?
You can head to the BetMGM NFL odds page to see all the sports betting lines for the Week 10 matchups.