- The Falcons are -2.5 point favorites vs the Dolphins
- Total (Over/Under): 36 points
- Watch the game on
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The Atlanta Falcons visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins on Aug. 11. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT in Miami Gardens.
The Falcons are betting favorites in this preseason matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).
The Falcons vs. Dolphins Over/Under is 36 total points for the game.
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Falcons vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Falcons | -2.5 -110 | 36 -110 | -135 |
| Dolphins | +2.5 -110 | 36 -110 | +115 |
Falcons vs. Dolphins Prediction
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Falcons will win this preseason game with 51.0% confidence.
Falcons vs Dolphins Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Falcons and Dolphins, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players this preseason game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Tyler Allgeier has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.55 Units / 57% ROI)
- Drake London has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.55 Units / 51% ROI)
- Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 63% ROI)
- Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Carries Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.75 Units / 48% ROI)
- Kyle Pitts has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+4.45 Units / 31% ROI)
Best Dolphins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for this preseason matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jaylen Waddle has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jaylen Waddle has hit the Longest Reception Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.10 Units / 35% ROI)
- Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Passing Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 69% ROI)
- Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Completions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 78% ROI)
Falcons Best Bets:
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2H Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+11.45 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 12 games (+9.80 Units / 71% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have scored last in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.40 Units / 31% ROI)
Dolphins Best Bets:
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.75 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+4.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.90 Units / 18% ROI)
Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread last NFL season, the Falcons went 9-8 (+0.15 Units / 0.8% ROI).
- Falcons are 7-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.8 Units / -12.53% ROI
- Falcons are 7-10 when betting the Over for -4 Units / -21.39% ROI
- Falcons are 10-7 when betting the Under for +2.3 Units / ROI
Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread last NFL season, the Dolphins went 10-8 (+1.1 Units / 5.46% ROI).
- Dolphins are 9-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.9 Units / -2.62% ROI
- Dolphins are 9-9 when betting the Over for -0.9 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Dolphins are 9-9 when betting the Under for -0.9 Units / -4.55% ROI
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins
The Falcons are 2-10 (.167) after a win since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .530.
The Falcons were 1-7 (.125) on the road in the 2022 season — tied for 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .432.
The Falcons were 2-7 (.222) when making less than 7 explosive plays in the 2022 season — 8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .402.
The Falcons were 3-6 (.333) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns in the 2022 season — tied for 10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .432.
Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
The Dolphins were 1-6 (.143) when throwing at least 1 interception in the 2022 season — tied for 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .386.
The Dolphins were 3-7 (.300) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays in the 2022 season — 9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .414.
The Dolphins were 3-6 (.333) on the road in the 2022 season — tied for 8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .432.
The Dolphins are winless (0-4) when playing in cold weather since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .495.
Additional Matchup Notes for Atlanta Falcons vs. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins scored on 39.5% of their drives in the first quarter last season — tied for fourth-best in NFL. The Falcons defense allowed scores on 37.2% of opponent drives in the first quarter last season — fourth-worst in NFL.
The Dolphins threw for 8.2 yards per attempt last season — tied for best in NFL. The Falcons allowed 7.0 yards per dropback last season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.
Dolphins RBs averaged just 5.9 yards after the catch last season — tied for second-worst in NFL. The Falcons allowed just 6.8 yards after catch per reception to RBs last season — tied for fifth-best in NFL.
The Falcons ran 20.1% offensive plays in the red zone in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — fourth-best in NFL. Dolphins allowed their opponent to run 18.8% of plays in the red zone in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — third-worst in NFL.
The Falcons ran 50.0% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. Dolphins allowed their opponents to run49.6% of plays in their territory in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — fifth-worst in NFL.
The Falcons averaged 5.6 yards per carry on rushes to the right side of the field last season — fourth-best in NFL. The Dolphins allowed 5.8 yards per carry when defending on rushes to the right last season — fourth-worst in NFL.
Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats
The Falcons ran the ball on 54% of plays (549 carries/1,011 plays) in the 2022 season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Falcons threw the ball 31% of the time (139 Pass Attempts/450 plays) on 1st down in the 2022 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Falcons threw the ball 41% of the time (415 Pass Attempts/1,011 plays) in the 2022 season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.
The Falcons threw the ball 37% of the time (298 Pass Attempts/797 plays) on Early Downs in the 2022 season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 49%.
Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats
The Dolphins converted first downs on just 5 of 16 plays (31%) on 3rd and short in the last 8 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 61%.
The Dolphins had an average drive start position from the 20.6 yard line in the 1st half in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 25.9.
The Dolphins converted first downs on just 25 of 54 plays (46%) on 3rd and short in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 60%.
The Dolphins had an average drive start position from the 23.3 yard line in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 26.7.
Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats
The Falcons defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (39/1,175) since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 6%.
The Falcons defense has hurried opposing QBs on 9% of pass attempts since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 16%.
The Falcons defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 70% on 3rd and short since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 60%.
The Falcons defense has averaged 1.1 sacks per game since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 2.3.
Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats
20% of the plays ran against the Dolphins were in the red zone in the 1st quarter in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
37% of the plays ran against the Dolphins were in the red zone in the 1st quarter in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
The Dolphins defense blitzed on 24% of plays in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
The Dolphins defense blitzed on 40% of plays in the red zone in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 9%.
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