- The SMU is a -6 point favorite vs. Florida St
- The Florida State vs. SMU Total(Over/Under): 48.5 points
- TV Channel: ACCN
The Florida State Seminoles (1-3) visit Gerald J. Ford Stadium to take on the SMU Mustangs (3-1) on Sep. 28 in Dallas, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT.
SMU is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -6 (-110).
The Florida State vs. SMU Over/Under is 48.5 total points.
Bet now on SMU vs Florida St & all NCAAF games with BetMGM
Florida State vs. SMU Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Florida State | +6 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +180 |
| SMU | -6 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -225 |
Florida State vs SMU Prediction:
The winning team model predicts SMU will win this game with 65.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Florida St and SMU, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Florida State vs SMU Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts SMU will cover the spread with 65.6% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on SMU vs Florida St and all games with BetMGM
Florida State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Florida State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- Florida State has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- Florida State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 4 away games (+2.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- Florida State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- Florida State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 2 of their last 4 away games (+0.20 Units / 1% ROI)
SMU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- SMU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.75 Units / 43% ROI)
- SMU has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- SMU has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- SMU have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+2.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- SMU has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Florida State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Florida State Player Prop Bets Today
- Roydell Williams has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Lawrance Toafili has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Malik Benson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for SMU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best SMU Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Preston Stone has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Preston Stone has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Preston Stone has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jake Bailey has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)
- RJ Maryland has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Florida State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Florida St is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.3 Units / -75% ROI).
- Florida State is 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.95 Units / -91.44% ROI
- Florida State is 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -75% ROI
- Florida State is 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 68.18% ROI
SMU Against the Spread (ATS) Record
SMU is 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.25 Units / -67.16% ROI).
- SMU is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.8 Units / -10.75% ROI
- SMU is 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -66.67% ROI
- SMU is 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 60.61% ROI
Florida State: Keys to the Game vs. SMU
Florida State is undefeated (12-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .700
Florida State is undefeated (12-0) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .703
Florida State is 11-1 (.917) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: .547
Florida State is undefeated (12-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .656
SMU: Keys to the Game vs. Florida State
SMU is undefeated (14-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .762
SMU is 5-1 (.833) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-7th-best in FBS; Average: .507
SMU is 5-1 (.833) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-7th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .536
SMU is 9-2 (.818) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 13th-best in FBS; Average: .535
Matchup Notes for Florida State vs. SMU
RJ Maryland (SMU) has 13 receptions in 4 games (3.2 per game) this season — 9th-best of Qualified Tight Ends. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 17.0 receptions per game this season — T-3rd-best among ACC defenses.
RJ Maryland (SMU) has 13 receptions in 4 games (3.2 per game) this season — 9th-best of Qualified Tight Ends. Florida State’s defense has allowed 5.0 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-6th-worst among FBS defenses.
RJ Maryland (SMU) has gained 191 yards on 13 receptions (14.7 YPR) this season — T-8th-best of Qualified Tight Ends. Florida State’s defense has allowed 13.3 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.
Florida State’s QBs has rushed for -3 yards on 32 carries (just -0.1 YPC) this season — 11th-worst among FBS teams. SMU’s defense have allowed just 2.8 YPC this season — T-4th-best among ACC defenses.
Florida State’s RBs has rushed for 281 yards on 74 carries (just 3.8 YPC) this season — T-15th-worst among FBS RBs. SMU’s defense have allowed just 2.8 YPC this season — T-4th-best among ACC defenses.
Florida State’s RBs has rushed for 281 yards on 74 carries (just 3.8 YPC) this season — T-15th-worst among FBS RBs. SMU’s defense have allowed just 3.2 YPC to RBs this season — T-11th-best among FBS defenses.
Florida State Offensive Stats & Trends
Florida State Skill Players have just one touchdown on 51 receptions this season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.0
Florida State Skill Players have just one touchdown on 51 receptions this season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.3
Florida State RBs have averaged just 1.6 Yards per Carry (21 yards/13 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3
Florida State WRs have just one touchdown on 34 receptions this season– 5th-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9.8
Florida State WRs have averaged 19.4 yards per reception (271 yards/14 catches) in short yardage situations since the 2023 season– 4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.4
SMU Offensive Stats & Trends
SMU WRs have caught just 1 of 6 passes (17% Reception Pct) in the 4th quarter this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%
SMU RBs have averaged 11.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (174 yards / 15 touches) on 3rd down this season– 5th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.9
SMU QBs have 19 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down since the 2023 season– 5th-most among FBS Teams
SMU RBs have averaged 12.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (144 yards / 12 touches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 4th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 7.0
SMU TEs have 92 receiving yards on 3rd down this season– 4th-most among FBS Teams
Florida State Seminoles Defensive Stats & Trends
Florida State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 32% (6 completions/19 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%
Florida State has allowed first downs on 5% of pass attempts on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 50%
Florida State has allowed first downs on 5% of pass attempts on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 50%
Florida State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 51% (259 completions/506 attempts) since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%
Florida State has allowed opponents to catch just 259 of 503 passes (52% Reception Pct) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 61%
SMU Mustangs Defensive Stats & Trends
SMU has allowed 7 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– most among Power Conference Teams
SMU has allowed 7 first down receptions in the Red Zone this season– most among Power Conference Teams
SMU allowed 4 TD passes last week– T-2nd-most among Power Conference Teams
SMU has allowed first downs on 34% of rush attempts on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 60%
SMU has allowed 7 first down receptions in the Red Zone this season– 4th-most in FBS
Bet now on SMU vs Florida St and all games with BetMGM
More College Football Betting at BetMGM
BetMGM is the best online sportsbook for college football betting.
Whether you’re a first-time bettor checking out the best sportsbook promos, a casual fan betting on Georgia football national championship odds, Michigan football odds, or Ohio State playoff odds, or a longtime diehard breaking down trends for live sports betting, there are entertainment options for everyone.
Visit the sportsbook today to place a college football bet online!
