Football Spreads: Which Favored Teams Can Cover in NFL Week 16?

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BetMGM Staff @BETMGM Dec 21, 2021, 7:29 AM

Week 16 is upon us in the NFL, which means another week of football spreads for bettors as the holidays approach.

BetMGM has the latest NFL betting lines, and a few favorites stand out from these current lines.

What are the best Week 16 favorites to back this week? Here are three of my picks.

San Francisco (-3.5) at Tennessee

  • Date – Thursday, Dec. 23rd
  • Time – 8:20 P.M. EST on NFL Network
  • Venue – Nissan Stadium

The San Francisco 49ers and Tennessee Titans are two teams that come into Thursday’s game going in completely different directions. San Francisco has won five of its last six games, while Tennessee has lost three of its previous four.

Momentum is not the most concerning element of this game, though, as injuries have really demolished the potency of Tennessee’s offense. Aside from the noticeable loss of running back Derrick Henry, wide receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are both questionable to play in this game at the time of writing.

If Brown and Jones cannot play, Ryan Tannehill will have fewer air threats, allowing the 49ers to commit to blitzing the pass more aggressively. Tennessee has only averaged 121 passing yards over its last three contests.

Without two of its top threats, Tennessee may be forced to run the ball, which is an advantage for San Francisco. The 49ers have allowed an average of just 98 rushing yards across their last three games. If the 49ers can force the Titans into third-and-long situations, their pass rush should be able to get to Tannehill. San Francisco already has 36 sacks on the season, which is 10th in the NFL.

I like the 49ers to cover the spread against the Titans this week.

Cleveland at Green Bay (-7)

  • Date- Saturday, Dec. 25th
  • Time- 4:30 P.M. EST on Fox and NFL Network
  • Venue- Lambeau Field

For this Christmas matchup, the betting trends favor the Green Bay Packers. They are 11-3 ATS and 5-0 as a home favorite ATS, both of which top the NFL.

As for the Cleveland Browns, they have been a lot less reliable in both departments. They are just 6-8 ATS overall and only 2-3 ATS as a road underdog this season.

These are both talented defenses, allowing less than 22 points per game, and both can stop the run, allowing less than 110 rushing yards each per game.

However, Cleveland relies much more heavily on the run. The Browns are just 26th in the NFL in passing yards per game (201.5) while being fifth in the NFL in rushing yards per game (139.6). The Packers are ninth in the NFL with 253.6 passing yards per game. They’re only 21st in rushing yards per game.

I also think the Packers are a better overall scoring offense. They average 25.6 points per game, while the Browns average just 20.9 points. In their past three games, the Packers have averaged 37.3 points, while the Browns have only scored an average of 16.

I like Green Bay to cover the spread because of their strong offense and Cleveland’s defensive struggles.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City (-7.5)

  • Date- Sunday, Dec. 26th
  • Time- 4:25 P.M. EST on CBS
  • Venue- Arrowhead Stadium

I like the Kansas City Chiefs to continue their hot streak here for my last pick. They have won their previous seven games and outscored their opponents 197-93.

The Chiefs have the sixth-best scoring offense in the NFL, averaging 27.5 points per game. As for the Pittsburgh Steelers, they only score 20.8 points per game, 21st in the NFL.

On top of this, Kansas City gives up almost a field goal per game less (21.1) than the Steelers (23.9).

Kansas City does have some issues to deal with this week. This week, they have 13 players in the COVID-19 protocol, including their leading receiver, Tyreek Hill, and tight end Travis Kelce.

With that said, the Chiefs’ defense has still been elite over their past seven games. Despite the missing players, I believe they can find success running the football this week, as the Steelers rank 31st in rushing yards allowed per game (143.9).

Even though they’re missing 13 players this week, I’m still picking the Chiefs to win this game and cover the spread.

See More Football Spreads

What do you think of these football spreads? Do you agree with my choices, or would you go the other way?

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Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.

Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.