France vs. Poland Predictions, Odds & Picks: World Cup 2022

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France's Antoine Griezmann applauds after the World Cup group D soccer match between Tunisia and France at the Education City Stadium in Al Rayyan , Qatar, Wednesday, Nov. 30, 2022. Defending champion France won its World Cup group despite losing to Tunisia 1-0.
AP Photo/Frank Augstein
Laura Paterson @ Dec 03, 2022, 6:06 AM
  • France was the first country to advance to the Round of 16.
  • Poland has been disappointing, with only two goals so far.
  • France should beat Poland by two goals.

The reigning world champions, France, will play Poland in the Round of 16.

France sailed through the Group Stage despite a serious injury crisis that kept many stars from its FIFA World Cup squad. There was also the loss against Tunisia, but the French had already qualified and rested most of their standout players.

On the other hand, Poland barely made it through to the Round of 16. They had to rely on a superior goal differential to advance ahead of Mexico. 

Can Lewandowski and Co. improve their performance and stop one of the tournament favorites?

France vs. Poland  ​​Prediction, World Cup:

The winning team model predicts France will win this Round of 16 game with 58% confidence. The model also predicts a 17% chance of a tie/draw in regular time.

» Get Win Predictions for Every World Cup Game

France vs. Poland Odds, Outrights, Over/Under

  • Match Result: France (-350) | Draw (+450) | Poland (+950)
  • Draw No Bet: France (-1600) | Poland (+750)
  • Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 (-130) | Under 2.5 (-110)

France vs. Poland Match Info

2022 World Cup — Round of 16

Date: Sunday, December 4

Time: 10:00 AM ET

Venue: Al Thumama Stadium

Coverage: Fox, Telemundo

France vs. Poland Analysis

Many feared France wouldn’t be the force that it was in 2018 due to an injury crisis that has the likes of Karim Benzema, Christopher Nkunku, Paul Pogba, N’Golo Kante, and more left at home.

However, Didier Deschamp’s men have not disappointed, and they topped Group D emphatically, despite losing to Tunisia with their second-string team. Olivier Giroud looks like a new player. Meanwhile, all the attention on Kylian Mbappé has allowed Giroud to thrive, and he isn’t just scoring goals but providing excellent assists too.

Adrien Rabiot and Aurelien Tchouameni don’t get much of the attention on this star-studded team, but they have been instrumental in controlling the midfield and allowing the attacking players to thrive.

Poland has been less than impressive so far in this tournament. 

They can thank goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny for the superior goal differential that allowed them to advance. Szczesny has made 18 saves, more than any other keeper in the tournament. His impressive tally of nine saves in the first half against Argentina is the most saves ever made in a half in World Cup history.

Robert Lewandowski was meant to shine at what is bound to be his last World Cup. 

The striker has had a penalty saved and scored one goal in a seriously underwhelming campaign. Czesław Michniewicz’s midfield looks tired, and they don’t seem to have the pace or attacking verve to go on a serious run in this tournament.

If it weren’t for heroic goalkeeping, Poland simply would not be here, and I expect France to run this team ragged. 

Poland has kept a clean sheet in the first half of all three of their games so far, while France has failed to score in the first half in two of their three games. So goals should be more prolific in the second 45 minutes.

I see Poland sitting deep to start, but ultimately they have to go out and try to win this game, which will open them up to France’s attacking talent.

I expect both Mbappé and Giroud to get on the scoresheet in this game and an emphatic win for Les Blues.

France vs. Poland Game Result Odds

  • Match Result: France (-350)
  • Draw No Bet: France (-1600)
  • Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 (-130)
  • Halftime/Fulltime: Tie/France: (+270)
  • 3Way Handicap: Handicap Tie France -2: (+210)

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About the Author

Laura Paterson

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Laura is a dedicated in-house writer for The Media Image. An avid sports fan and field hockey player, she gets her fix through writing on a variety of sports for BetMGM.

Laura is a dedicated in-house writer for The Media Image. An avid sports fan and field hockey player, she gets her fix through writing on a variety of sports for BetMGM.