Despite Full NFL Stadiums, Home Teams Losing at Historic Rate

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VIkings Fans
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Andrew Doughty @DoughtyBetMGM Oct 28, 2021, 4:59 PM

The Minnesota Vikings scored 23 unanswered points over the final two and a half quarters to beat the Seattle Seahawks, 30-17, at US Bank Stadium in Week 3. It was one of eight wins for home NFL teams in Week 3 as they failed to post an above-.500 weekly record for the third straight week.

Home teams didn’t finish above -.500 in Week 4, nor did they in Weeks 5 or 6. It wasn’t until the Los Angeles Rams beat the Detroit Lions at SoFi Stadium in Week 7 that home teams were guaranteed to win more games than they lost in a single week. But despite the 9-4 record in Week 7, home teams are still under -.500 this season (51-54) and need to win 84 of their final 165 games to top 2020 for the worst regular-season home record of all time (127-128-1).

Last year’s futility was largely attributed to empty (or mostly empty) stadiums. None of the 256 regular-season games were played in full stadiums.

“Uniquely this year, the away games for any of these opponents are not as daunting maybe as it would be when you have to go in and deal with the crowd noise and all the other factors,” Sean Payton said after the New Orleans Saints lost to the Green Bay Packers at Mercedes-Benz Superdome in Week 3.

The Saints didn’t cover -3.5 points in the 37-30 loss, one of four against-the-spread home losses for Payton’s team last season, which contributed to a sub-.500 ATS league-wide record for home teams for the third straight season. And, with a current ATS record of 47-58, home teams must cover in 70 of the final 165 games – all of which are scheduled to be played in full stadiums, as the first 105 have – to avoid posting the worst ATS home record in NFL history.

The Vikings are 1-point home underdogs against the Cowboys on Sunday. You can view updated NFL odds for that game and other Week 8 games at the BetMGM sportsbook. And you can listen to Week 8 NFL betting analysis on The Lion’s Edge below (or on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and everywhere else):

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About the Author

Andrew Doughty

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Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM with a focus on college football, NFL, college basketball, and NASCAR. A graduate of the University of Kansas, he previously wrote for Sports Illustrated and HERO Sports.

Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM with a focus on college football, NFL, college basketball, and NASCAR. A graduate of the University of Kansas, he previously wrote for Sports Illustrated and HERO Sports.