Germany vs. Japan Predictions, Odds & Picks: World Cup 2022

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Germany's Ilkay Gundogan celebrates with his teammates after scoring his side's first goal
AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth
Laura Paterson @ Nov 22, 2022, 10:39 AM
  • Germany is a heavy favorite to beat Japan.
  • Both teams play an attacking style, so I expect a lot of corners.
  • Germany should win, but Japan is capable of an upset.

Germany begins its quest for World Cup redemption on Wednesday, November 23, against Japan. 

Of course, Die Mannschaft finished last in their group and failed to advance in 2018, while Japan has yet to make it past the Round of 16 in seven attempts.

Can the Samurai Blue upset one of the tournament favorites?

Germany vs. Japan Prediction, World Cup:

The winning team model predicts Germany will win this Group E game with 61% confidence. The model also predicts an 18% chance of a tie/draw. 

» Get Win Predictions for Every World Cup Game

Germany vs. Japan Odds, Outrights, Over/Under

  • Match Result: Germany (-210) | Tie (+360) | Japan (+525)
  • Draw No Bet: Germany (-160) | Japan (+375)
  • Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 (-160) | Under 2.5 (+110)

Germany vs. Japan Match Info

2022 World Cup — Group Stage (E)

Date: Wednesday, November 23

Time: 8:00 AM ET

Venue: Khalifa International Stadium, Qatar

Coverage: FOX, Telemundo

Germany vs. Japan Analysis

Germany is a strong favorite against Japan, and any result besides a win would be a huge shock. Hansi Flick has his team playing possession-based, counter-pressing soccer.

Ilkay Gundogan, Jamal Musiala, Kai Havertz, Leroy Sane, and Serge Gnabry are at the heart of a technically gifted team. Far from the dogged defending and ground-it-out wins that were typical of Germany’s style under Joachim Löw, this new-look German squad is more about creative and aesthetically pleasing soccer.

Of course, this does make them more vulnerable on defense, with Antonio Rudiger the only consistent player at the back. This was part of Germany’s poor Nations League record, where they conceded nine goals in six games.

As England proved with their 6-2 win over Iran, those performances probably don’t give much context to current form.

Japan has a very distinct style, with technically-gifted players that work patiently to carve apart opposition defenses using the pace on their wings. Given Germany’s stacked midfield, Hajime Moriyasu might tweak his team to soak up a bit of pressure and hit on the break.

Japan is very much the underdog here, but the Germans will undoubtedly remember that this is a side that was beating Belgium 2-0 in 2018 before they were undone by three exceptional goals.

The biggest weakness I see in Japan’s squad is their lack of a lethal out-and-out striker. Takuma Asano, Ayase Ueda, and Daizen Maeda are the main options up front, and they only have eight international goals between them. If Germany suffocates the Samurai Blues’ midfield, I just don’t think they’ll score goals.

Still, I expect an exciting game here. Germany has to deal with a lot of pressure after the 2018 disaster, and Japan has shown they are capable of an upset.

These two teams love to attack, so I think there will be plenty of corners on both sides. Ultimately, the Germans should take this game 2-1.

Germany vs. Japan Game Result Odds

  • Match Result: Germany (-210)
  • Draw No Bet: Germany (-160)
  • Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 (-160)
  • Total Over/Under Corners: Over 9.5 (+105)

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About the Author

Laura Paterson

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Laura is a dedicated in-house writer for The Media Image. An avid sports fan and field hockey player, she gets her fix through writing on a variety of sports for BetMGM.

Laura is a dedicated in-house writer for The Media Image. An avid sports fan and field hockey player, she gets her fix through writing on a variety of sports for BetMGM.