- The Padres are -185 favorites vs the Giants
- Giants starting pitcher: Sean Manaea
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The San Francisco Giants (+150) visit Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu to take on the San Diego Padres (-185) on Saturday, April 29, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in Mexico City.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Giants vs Padres Over/Under is 15.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Giants are 11-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 13-14 ATS.
Giants vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Giants | +1.5 -110 | O 15.5 -110 | +150 |
| Padres | -1.5 -110 | U 15.5 -110 | -185 |
Giants vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Giants will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 73.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Giants and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Giants Player Prop Bets Today:
- Thairo Estrada has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+10.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- David Villar has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- Thairo Estrada has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+9.90 Units / 49% ROI)
- Mike Yastrzemski has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- Thairo Estrada has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+9.60 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 28 games (+15.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+12.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 27 games (+10.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 27 games (+9.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+9.40 Units / 26% ROI)
Padres vs Giants Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nelson Cruz | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Trent Grisham | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Manny Machado | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -210 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -155 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
Padres vs Giants Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Crawford | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Austin Nola | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| J.D. Davis | 1.5 +150 | 1.5 -200 |
| LaMonte Wade Jr | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Padres vs Giants RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Crawford | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -135 |
| LaMonte Wade Jr | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Padres vs Giants Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sean Manaea | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -130 |
| Joe Musgrove | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -150 |
Giants Best Bets Today:
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.15 Units / 42% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.60 Units / 53% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.85 Units / 33% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 17 games (+10.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.10 Units / 10% ROI)
Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Giants have gone 12-13 against the Run Line (-3.3 Units / -9.23% ROI).
- 11-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.65 Units / -18.96% ROI
- 12-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.35 Units / -4.84% ROI
- 12-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -1 Units / -3.68% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 13-14 against the Run Line (-4.1 Units / -11.33% ROI).
- 13-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.9 Units / -15.78% ROI
- 11-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.65 Units / -15.37% ROI
- 14-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.05 Units / 7.01% ROI
Giants Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 11% (3/28) against Sean Manaea on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 27% — fourth Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (40/230) against Sean Manaea since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Sean Manaea has allowed an OPS of 1.368 (122 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 1.047 — fourth Percentile.
Sean Manaea has a strikeout rate of 38% (6 SO in 16 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 13th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 89th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 32% (59/185) against Joe Musgrove on fastballs since last season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .250 (17-for-68) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .340 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .143 (14 GB hits out of 98 GBs) against Joe Musgrove with runners on base since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .241 — 97th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has walked 13 of 343 right-handed batters (4%) since last season — tied for 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 94th Percentile.
Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Giants are just 2-11 (.154) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .199.
The Giants are just 13-15 (.464) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Giants are 36-22 (.621) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .548.
The Giants are just 11-11 (.500) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Giants
The Padres are 25-3 (.893) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
The Padres are just 3-70 (.041) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Padres are just 5-8 (.385) at home this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .504.
The Padres are 84-29 (.743) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .709.
Giants Hitting Stats & Trends
Giants hitters are slugging just .347 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Giants hitters have an OPS of just .632 (352 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Giants hitters have 266 strikeouts in 968 PA’s (28%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Giants are batting .369 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .337.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .209 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Padres hitters have an OPS of just .660 (642 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Padres are batting just .215 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Padres are batting just .125 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Giants Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Giants pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% against Giants pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Giants pitchers since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have walked 28 of 239 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers are throwing 4.09 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.92.
Padres vs. Giants Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Adam Engel (Padres): Hamstring, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
- Robert Wood (Giants): Hamstring, D15
- Roberto Pérez (Giants): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Giants): Wrist, D10
- Luke Jackson (Giants): Elbow, D60
- Austin Slater (Giants): Elbow, D10
- Mitchell Haniger (Giants): Oblique, D10
- Bryce Johnson (Giants): Concussion, D7
- Luis González (Giants): Back, D60
- Joseph Bart (Giants): Groin, Day-to-Day
- Thomas Szapucki (Giants): Left Arm, D60
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