Guardians vs Mariners Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 28

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 28, 2022, 9:52 AM
  • The Mariners (69-58) are -155 favorites vs the Guardians (67-58)
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Aaron Civale (2-5), 5.37 ERA
  • Mariners starting pitcher: Robert Ray (10-8), 3.75 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Cleveland Guardians (+125) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-155) on Sunday, August 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Seattle.

The Mariners are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Guardians vs Mariners Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Guardians are 67-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 64-60 ATS.

Guardians vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians+1.5 -165O 7.5 -120+125
Mariners -1.5 +135U 7.5 +100-155

Guardians vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Sunday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Mariners vs Guardians and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 23 of his last 37 games (+14.85 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 37 games (+14.65 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 45 games (+14.15 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+13.95 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Myles Straw has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+12.70 Units / 85% ROI)

Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 51 games at home (+15.40 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+14.70 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Ty France has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+14.35 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 62 of his last 93 games (+14.25 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Mitch Haniger has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+12.05 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 18 away games (+10.40 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 away games (+9.80 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 away games (+9.30 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 away games (+7.00 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 11 of their last 19 games (+4.25 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 38 of their last 68 games (+9.90 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 47 games (+7.40 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+5.00 Units / 63% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.45 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+0.10 Units / 1% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 67-57 against the Run Line (+5.55 Units / 3.54% ROI).

  • 67-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.95 Units / 7.79% ROI
  • 55-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.65 Units / -7.82% ROI
  • 60-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.4 Units / -0.29% ROI

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 64-60 against the Run Line (-5.6 Units / -3.36% ROI).

  • 68-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.35 Units / 6.12% ROI
  • 58-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.9 Units / -4.34% ROI
  • 59-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.4 Units / -3.2% ROI

Aaron Civale has not allowed a HR in any of his last five starts dating back to July 8th — the longest active streak is 8.

Aaron Civale has a strike rate of just 55% (660/1,195) when ahead in the count since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.

11 of Aaron Civale’s 42 breaking pitch strikeouts (26%) have been backdoor this season — tied for 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 94th Percentile.

Aaron Civale has located his fastball up for a strike just 51% (276/540) of the time since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: 60% — fourth Percentile.

Robert Ray: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Robbie Ray has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (493/1,125) when behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.

Robbie Ray has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (856/1,770) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Robbie Ray has walked 50 of 498 right-handed batters (10%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.

Robbie Ray has allowed a slugging percentage of .705 (43 Total Bases / 61 ABs) on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .410 — second Percentile.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Guardians are 11-50 (.180) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Guardians are 12-47 (.203) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .115.

The Guardians are 44-4 (.917) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .799.

The Guardians are 39-5 (.886) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Mariners are 27-8 (.771) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.

The Mariners are 32-14 (.696) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mariners are 7-46 (.132) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .115.

The Mariners are 51-1 (.981) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians hitters have just 869 strikeouts in 4,724 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have just 620 strikeouts in 3,526 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .544 (421 PA’s) against left-handed relievers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .162 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .167 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

The Mariners are batting just .303 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.

The Mariners are batting just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.

Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 1.73 (99.0 IP) on the road this month (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.06.

Guardians pitchers have walked 48 of 861 batters (6%) this month (24 games) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 69 of 1,113 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Mariners pitchers have walked 10 of 217 batters (5%) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Mariners vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Evan White (Mariners): Hernia, D60
  • Ryan Borucki (Mariners): Forearm, D15
  • Matthew Boyd (Mariners): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.