- The Mariners (69-58) are -155 favorites vs the Guardians (67-58)
- Guardians starting pitcher: Aaron Civale (2-5), 5.37 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Robert Ray (10-8), 3.75 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Cleveland Guardians (+125) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-155) on Sunday, August 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Seattle.
The Mariners are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Guardians vs Mariners Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Guardians are 67-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 64-60 ATS.
Guardians vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -165 | O 7.5 -120 | +125 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +135 | U 7.5 +100 | -155 |
Guardians vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Sunday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 23 of his last 37 games (+14.85 Units / 40% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 37 games (+14.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 45 games (+14.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+13.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+12.70 Units / 85% ROI)
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 51 games at home (+15.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+14.70 Units / 72% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+14.35 Units / 50% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 62 of his last 93 games (+14.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- Mitch Haniger has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+12.05 Units / 57% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 18 away games (+10.40 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 away games (+9.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 away games (+9.30 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 away games (+7.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 11 of their last 19 games (+4.25 Units / 20% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 38 of their last 68 games (+9.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 47 games (+7.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+5.00 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+0.10 Units / 1% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 67-57 against the Run Line (+5.55 Units / 3.54% ROI).
- 67-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.95 Units / 7.79% ROI
- 55-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.65 Units / -7.82% ROI
- 60-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.4 Units / -0.29% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 64-60 against the Run Line (-5.6 Units / -3.36% ROI).
- 68-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.35 Units / 6.12% ROI
- 58-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.9 Units / -4.34% ROI
- 59-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.4 Units / -3.2% ROI
Aaron Civale: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Civale has not allowed a HR in any of his last five starts dating back to July 8th — the longest active streak is 8.
Aaron Civale has a strike rate of just 55% (660/1,195) when ahead in the count since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
11 of Aaron Civale’s 42 breaking pitch strikeouts (26%) have been backdoor this season — tied for 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 94th Percentile.
Aaron Civale has located his fastball up for a strike just 51% (276/540) of the time since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: 60% — fourth Percentile.
Robert Ray: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Robbie Ray has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (493/1,125) when behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Robbie Ray has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (856/1,770) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Robbie Ray has walked 50 of 498 right-handed batters (10%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.
Robbie Ray has allowed a slugging percentage of .705 (43 Total Bases / 61 ABs) on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .410 — second Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Guardians are 11-50 (.180) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Guardians are 12-47 (.203) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Guardians are 44-4 (.917) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Guardians are 39-5 (.886) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Mariners are 27-8 (.771) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
The Mariners are 32-14 (.696) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners are 7-46 (.132) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Mariners are 51-1 (.981) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians hitters have just 869 strikeouts in 4,724 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have just 620 strikeouts in 3,526 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .544 (421 PA’s) against left-handed relievers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .162 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .167 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .303 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
The Mariners are batting just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 1.73 (99.0 IP) on the road this month (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.06.
Guardians pitchers have walked 48 of 861 batters (6%) this month (24 games) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 69 of 1,113 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 10 of 217 batters (5%) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Hernia, D60
- Ryan Borucki (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Matthew Boyd (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
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