- The Red Sox are -125 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians starting pitcher: Zach Plesac
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello
- Watch the game on NESN
The Cleveland Guardians (+105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-125) on Saturday, April 29, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Guardians vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 13-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 14-13 ATS.
Guardians vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -185 | O 9 -105 | +105 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +150 | U 9 -115 | -125 |
Guardians vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 70.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Guardians vs Red Sox and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+13.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 24 games (+9.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+9.15 Units / 50% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+7.55 Units / 16% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 games (+16.75 Units / 62% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+10.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+10.50 Units / 70% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+10.10 Units / 101% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 games (+9.35 Units / 77% ROI)
Red Sox vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jarren Duran | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Red Sox vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jarren Duran | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Justin Turner | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
Red Sox vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jarren Duran | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Red Sox vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
| Zach Plesac | 3.5 +120 | 3.5 -160 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 72% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 away games (+2.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+2.25 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.95 Units / 17% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games (+8.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games (+7.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games (+3.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+3.20 Units / 22% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 10-16 against the Run Line (-5 Units / -16.64% ROI).
- 13-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.7 Units / -15.57% ROI
- 10-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.6 Units / -23% ROI
- 15-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.05 Units / 14.21% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 14-13 against the Run Line (-0.25 Units / -0.72% ROI).
- 13-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.55 Units / -4.92% ROI
- 18-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.1 Units / 27.55% ROI
- 9-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.3 Units / -37.42% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .389 (42-for-108) against Zach Plesac with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .248 — first Percentile.
Zach Plesac has allowed an OBP of .446 (121 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .317 — 0 Percentile.
Zach Plesac has allowed an OPS of 1.048 (122 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .720 — first Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 56% of Zach Plesac’s pitches (175/313) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brayan Bello has limited playing time.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Guardians are 1-10 (.091) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .039.
The Guardians are 2-8 (.200) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .095.
The Guardians are 20-65 (.235) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Guardians are 14-68 (.171) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Red Sox are 4-13 (.235) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .095.
The Red Sox are 7-11 (.389) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .199.
The Red Sox are just 7-76 (.084) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Red Sox are 9-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .905.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 921 strikeouts in 5,254 PA’s (17%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,315 strikeouts in 7,158 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .345 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .440 (91 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
The Red Sox are batting .271 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Red Sox are batting .275 at home since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .354 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Guardians pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 101 of 1,697 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 73 of 996 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 13% over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.40 (747.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.03.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.13 (237.0 IP) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.30.
Red Sox vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D10
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Martin (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Hamstring, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
- Sam D. Hentges (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Oblique, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
Bet now on Guardians vs Red Sox and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
