Heat vs Celtics Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, May 17

min read
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 18, 2023, 2:46 PM
  • The Celtics are -8.5 favorites vs. the Heat
  • Total (Over/Under): 210.5 points
  • Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 8:30pm EDT
  • Watch the game on TNT

The Miami Heat visit TD Garden to take on the Boston Celtics on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30pm EDT in Boston.

The Celtics are betting favorites in this NBA playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-110).

The Heat vs Celtics Over/Under is 211.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 40-53 against the spread, while the Celtics are 53-41 against the spread.


Bet now on Celtics vs Heat and all NBA games with BetMGM


Heat vs. Celtics Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat+8.5 -110O 211.5 -110+300
Boston Celtics -8.5 -110U 211.5 -110-375

Celtics vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Celtics will win Wednesday‘s game with 66.5% confidence.

Celtics vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Celtics will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Heat and Celtics, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


Bet now on Celtics vs Heat and all NBA games with BetMGM


  • The Miami Heat have covered the 4Q Spread in 60 of their last 97 games (+19.67 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+15.80 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 24 of their last 34 away games (+14.72 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 56 of their last 96 games (+12.90 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 31 of their last 49 away games (+12.24 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 67 of their last 100 games (+30.31 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 1H Moneyline in 19 of their last 21 games at home (+14.80 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 2Q Spread in 31 of their last 48 games at home (+13.19 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the Spread in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.50 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 57 of their last 99 games (+10.30 Units / 9% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 40-53 (-18.3 Units / -17.5% ROI).

  • 53-42 against the Moneyline (-2.8 Units / -1.57% ROI)
  • 48-46 against the Over for game total points (-2.6 Units / -2.49% ROI)
  • 46-48 against the Under for game total points (-6.8 Units / -6.51% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Celtics have gone 53-41 (+7.9 Units / 7.57% ROI).

  • 65-30 against the Moneyline (-35.25 Units / -10.92% ROI)
  • 50-44 against the Over for game total points (+1.6 Units / 1.53% ROI)
  • 44-50 against the Under for game total points (-11 Units / -10.53% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 69 games (-45.35 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 33 of their last 100 games (-42.67 Units / -38% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 50 of their last 94 games (-25.36 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 20 of their last 50 games at home (-23.77 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 99 games (-23.52 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 42 of their last 100 games (-23.36 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 43 away games (-23.32 Units / -46% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 39 of their last 96 games (-22.60 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 43 away games (-21.06 Units / -44% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the Spread in 41 of their last 99 games (-20.60 Units / -19% ROI)

Jump to:

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Boston Celtics

The Heat are 57-14 (.803) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2020-21 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .721

The Heat are 93-51 (.646) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Heat are 54-26 (.675) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .548

The Heat are 64-26 (.711) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .565

Boston Celtics: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Celtics are 22-1 (.957) when shooting 50% or better from the field this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .733

The Celtics are 48-4 (.923) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .724

The Celtics are 39-16 (.709) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .568

The Celtics are 40-14 (.741) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .538

Injury Report: Celtics vs. HeatWednesday‘s Game, May 17

  • Danilo Gallinari (Celtics): Gallinari is hoping to return and play at the end of the season, according to Adam Himmelsbach of The Boston Globe.
  • Victor Oladipo (Heat): Oladipo suffered a torn patellar tendon in his left knee, according to Shams Charania of The Athetic.
  • Tyler Herro (Heat): Herro is expected to miss about 4-6 weeks, according to Chris Haynes of Turner Sports.
  • Cody Zeller (Heat): Zeller is questionable for Wednesday’s (May 17) game against Boston.

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

The Heat have averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

The Heat have averaged 109.5 points per game (8,977 points/82 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

The Heat have averaged 42.8 points in the paint per game (3,508 points/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 48.4

Boston Celtics Offensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (1,087 assists/ 527 TOs) on the road this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Celtics have made 16.0 three-pointers per game this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.3

The Celtics have made 14.9 three-pointers per game on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.2

The Celtics shot 38% from three (972/2,594) in the 2020-21 season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (508 blocks/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (794 blocks/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (400 blocks/118 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

Boston Celtics Defensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have averaged 38.0 defensive rebounds per game (3,112 rebounds/82 games) this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Celtics have averaged 7.0 steals per game (1,659 steals/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Celtics have averaged 6.4 steals per game (521 steals/82 games) this season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Celtics have blocked 431 shots this season — 6th most among NBA teams


Bet now on Celtics vs Heat and all NBA games with BetMGM


Bet on NBA Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated NBA betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.