- The Celtics are -7.5 favorites vs. the Heat
- Total (Over/Under): 215.5 points
- Thursday, May 25, 2023 at 8:30pm EDT
- Watch the game on TNT
The Miami Heat visit TD Garden to take on the Boston Celtics on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30pm EDT in Boston.
The Celtics are betting favorites in this NBA playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-110).
The Heat vs Celtics Over/Under is 214.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Heat are 43-54 against the spread, while the Celtics are 54-44 against the spread.
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Heat vs. Celtics Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Miami Heat | +8.5 -110 | O 214.5 -110 | +270 |
Boston Celtics | -8.5 -110 | U 214.5 -110 | -350 |
Celtics vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Celtics will win Thursday‘s game with 66.5% confidence.
Celtics vs Heat Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Celtics will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.
These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Heat and Celtics, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.
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Heat Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+22.90 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have covered the 4Q Spread in 51 of their last 83 games (+16.32 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 25 of their last 36 away games (+15.27 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 2H Moneyline in 22 of their last 32 games (+14.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 17 of their last 27 games (+11.40 Units / 30% ROI)
Celtics Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Boston Celtics have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 63 of their last 96 games (+26.19 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Celtics have covered the 2Q Spread in 32 of their last 50 games at home (+13.04 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Celtics have hit the 1H Moneyline in 20 of their last 23 games at home (+12.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Celtics have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 57 of their last 99 games (+10.61 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Boston Celtics have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 57 of their last 99 games (+10.35 Units / 9% ROI)
Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 43-54 (-16.4 Units / -15.05% ROI).
- 56-43 against the Moneyline (+4.3 Units / 2.36% ROI)
- 51-47 against the Over for game total points (-0.7 Units / -0.64% ROI)
- 47-51 against the Under for game total points (-9.1 Units / -8.36% ROI)
Boston Celtics Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Celtics have gone 54-44 (+5.6 Units / 5.15% ROI).
- 66-33 against the Moneyline (-44.3 Units / -13.26% ROI)
- 53-45 against the Over for game total points (+3.5 Units / 3.21% ROI)
- 45-53 against the Under for game total points (-13.3 Units / -12.21% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Celtics:
- The Boston Celtics have only hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 73 games (-54.40 Units / -21% ROI)
- The Boston Celtics have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 100 games (-38.52 Units / -34% ROI)
- The Boston Celtics have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 51 of their last 98 games (-30.05 Units / -17% ROI)
- The Boston Celtics have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 99 games (-23.47 Units / -21% ROI)
- The Boston Celtics have only covered the 1Q Spread in 26 of their last 73 games (-23.35 Units / -29% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 45 away games (-22.87 Units / -43% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 45 away games (-21.21 Units / -43% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 42 of their last 100 games (-20.80 Units / -19% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 39 of their last 92 games (-19.87 Units / -19% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 44 of their last 100 games (-18.70 Units / -17% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
- Keys to Winning for the Boston Celtics
- Player Injuries for Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
- Miami Heat Offensive stats
- Boston Celtics Offensive stats
- Miami Heat Defensive stats
- Boston Celtics Defensive stats
Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Boston Celtics
The Heat are 57-14 (.803) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2020-21 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .721
The Heat are 93-51 (.646) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556
The Heat are 54-26 (.675) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .548
The Heat are 64-26 (.711) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .565
Boston Celtics: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat
The Celtics are 22-1 (.957) when shooting 50% or better from the field this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .733
The Celtics are 48-4 (.923) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .724
The Celtics are 39-16 (.709) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .568
The Celtics are 40-14 (.741) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .538
Injury Report: Celtics vs. Heat – Thursday‘s Game, May 25
- Danilo Gallinari (Celtics): Gallinari is still rehabbing his torn ACL with hopes of returning in the playoffs according to the Boston Herald.
- Victor Oladipo (Heat): Oladipo suffered a torn patellar tendon in his left knee, according to Shams Charania of The Athetic.
- Tyler Herro (Heat): Herro is expected to miss about 4-6 weeks, according to Chris Haynes of Turner Sports.
- Gabe Vincent (Heat): Vincent is QUESTIONABLE for Thursday’s (May.25) game against Boston.
Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4
The Heat have averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1
The Heat have averaged 109.5 points per game (8,977 points/82 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7
The Heat have averaged 42.8 points in the paint per game (3,508 points/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 48.4
Boston Celtics Offensive Stats & Trends
The Celtics have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (1,087 assists/ 527 TOs) on the road this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8
The Celtics have made 16.0 three-pointers per game this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.3
The Celtics have made 14.9 three-pointers per game on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.2
The Celtics shot 38% from three (972/2,594) in the 2020-21 season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%
Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7
The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (508 blocks/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7
The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (794 blocks/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7
The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (400 blocks/118 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8
Boston Celtics Defensive Stats & Trends
The Celtics have averaged 38.0 defensive rebounds per game (3,112 rebounds/82 games) this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2
The Celtics have averaged 7.0 steals per game (1,659 steals/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5
The Celtics have averaged 6.4 steals per game (521 steals/82 games) this season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3
The Celtics have blocked 431 shots this season — 6th most among NBA teams
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